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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    The first half of the month was exactly equal to the 1981-2010 average, but the last 8 days have averaged a ridiculous 9.5C, some 5.4C above average!

    As a result our mean is now 6.4C (+1.7C), so its already 5th mildest in the last 38 years (and since 2002) and rising quickly.

    Winter is also the 6th mildest now in those 38 years aswell.

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    I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

    CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

    5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Say hello to three new contestants ... 

    Normal 1981-2010

    Normal 1987-2016 (1986-2015 for Dec) ... most recent 30 years 

    and Consensus (median) -- will usually be within 0.1 of average but makes wild outliers irrelevant.

     

    I will track how they do from the official scoring. Of course they won't have late penalties and they will go off the highest scoring (earliest forecast submitted) of equal value, or what I calculate when nobody matches them. And it won't have any impact on J-10's scoring tables, these scores if we used them at all would not bump lower scores down, it's all hypothetical. Note, as with the case of 4.6 in January, the ranking assumes first in at that absolute value so the first 3.4 forecast actually establishes the ranking, the first 4.6 came third but I am scoring these as pre-contest absolutely. Also, it should be noted that I am only checking average error and not the other categories that go into our scoring, and as I do that, I compare only against ranked contestants who have entered all months. So if you check the tables you may find that my assigned total rank is higher than the contest value since some higher ranked entrants will have missed a month (or two at a later point). I have also ranked the average monthly points in the same way. Any points added for accuracy in the tables are not reflected in this table. Also any late entrant penalties do not affect how many scores are ahead of these three, assume for the sake of average outcome that there might be one per ten to fifteen rankings that got ahead partly by a late entry. On the other hand these three are getting the highest scores they could get while tied with several contest entrants so the real comparison is probably a bit lower in terms of ranking. As illustrated by the Consensus ranking in total to date, the ranks are also independent of each other (if the two normals were really people, then Consensus would be 15th in points and 24th in mean error, although that's assuming the value of Consensus doesn't change with those forecasts in the mix.

     

    So for Dec and Jan, the scoring for these three would be:

    _________________ DECEMBER 2016 _______ JANUARY 2017 ______ TOTAL TO DATE

    FORECASTER _____ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) ___ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) __ Mean error, pts (rank)

    Normal 1981-2010 ___ 4.6 ___ -1.4 ___ 79.6 (21) ____4.4 ___ +0.4 __ 69.9 (29) _____ 0.90  (13) __149.5 (12)

    Normal 1987-2016 ___ 5,0 ___ -1.0 ___ 89.8 (11) ____ 4.6 ___ +0.6 __ 58.0 (40) _____ 0.80  ( 9) __147.8 (13)

    Consensus (median) _ 3.9 ___ -2.1 ___ 50.0 (50) ____ 3.9 ___ --0.1 __ 95.7 (5) ______ 1.10  (22) __145.7 (13)

     

    The February values are 4.4, 4.8 and 4.3 (in the order shown) ... I will score these at end of month and determine where these three stand in both the annual and the winter seasonal contests. They won't score very high by the looks of the CET projection, so the season and year to date rankings will likely drop to about 20th. If consensus ranks lower than any chosen normal, what that basically means is that the field exhibits no skill. In contests that I've been scoring for many years elsewhere, I find that 80% of the field usually beats normal over a year, and 10-20% beat consensus. So we have started out a bit wonky in this contest year.

    By the way, I missed the discussion at end of December thread on what options for the contest year (and only one person expressed an opinion). I vote to stay with the four-season contest year we have now. We could always give a summary of annual results, it might take a bit of extra work but an approximation like this one would be fairly easy to produce for the top 20 of the contest year, my guess is that ranks won't change very much unless somebody (for example, me) does very well in Dec of one year and very badly the next December. My ranking probably drops from about 10th in 2015-16 to 20th in 2016 and that's probably an outlier. 

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.5c here to the 22nd, 1.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Would imagine Feb may finish around the +2c mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    I suspect we are around 5.8 now, will be closer to 5.9 after Sunday then fall off to 5.7, corrections will bring that to 5.3 to 5.6. 

    It'll be higher than that. We were 0.3C higher than the CET by the 17th and we're now on 6.4C and haven't always been in air as mild as much of the CET zone.

    Its almost definitely 6.0-6.2C now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield on 5.1C rainfall galloping towards average values yet only a few days ago it was well down. Still one of the driest winters we've had.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C which is likely to be close to the finishing spot.  So once again after a mild December +6C here the chances of getting a cold month is very difficult and even then normally it's close to average. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    6.6°C (+1.9) here. 

    Mean min: 4.5°C (+2.4)

    Mean max: 9.0°C (+1.7)  

     Since my last report on Monday, everything has risen by 0.3°C.

    Looking like a well above average finish here now. 

    Edited by Chris.R
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Rather unexpectedly today turned out to be the warmest day of the month with a max of 12.9°C. This has increased the mean max to 9.2°C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    On 2/25/2017 at 11:25, Chris.R said:

    6.6°C (+1.9) here. 

    Mean min: 4.5°C (+2.4)

    Mean max: 9.0°C (+1.7)  

     Since my last report on Monday, everything has risen by 0.3°C.

    Looking like a well above average finish here now. 

    There's a surprise, 2000+, 'winter' month above average, well I never

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Mean max of 10°C here. The mean is 7.1°C, 1.4°C above the MetO derived average. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I wonder what the chances are of getting a colder March than February? Could be interesting, if we knew where we stood now for Feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.7c here to the 26th, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Expecting a small drop before month end, roughly finishing 5.5c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10 days), the value was 5.1 C after 17th and this gives an estimate of 6.0 to 6.2 through today. As the 28th looks cold (expect 5.9 to 6.1 before corrections) and expecting an adjustment down, my guess is the month will finish between 5.5 and 6.0 best guess 5.7 C. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Nice to see it back......

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    6 hours ago, ARTDEMOLE said:

    Nice to see it back......

    Well, it was nice to see it until you realise how mild the month has been!

    It was pretty much average up to mid-month, so for it to be at 6.3C now shows how mild the second half has been.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    6.3 to the 27th

    2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

    1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

    There's a surprise, 2017 and a 'winter' month above average, just going to get more frequent as years go on, these 6°+ months

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Feb finished 5.5c, 1.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

    0 days lying snow and only 4 frosts, good riddance!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    February finished on the following here:

     

    Lowest min - -0.9°C

    Mean min - 4.4°C (+2.3) - 1 air frost

    Mean - 6.6°C (+1.9)

    Mean max - 9.0°C (+1.7)

    Highest max - 12.9°C 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    My own back yard came in at 6.4c.

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