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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


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It's settling now 

I think snow chances this evening for most of us that live at low-levels will depend very much on how quickly the colder and drier arctic air undercuts the rain from the NW - which will relate to how

I've only just realised what a bunch of nutters we all are lol. All this drama for a 'bit' of snow .... I've spent hours if not days n days watching all this unfold .....Now all I'm left with is about

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1 minute ago, southbank said:

Radar showing , as mentioned already the low keeping its more southerly track , heavy precipitation looks heaviest in channel , so thus far (sadly from personel POV) looks like if we do get flakes it be shouldnt cause too much disruption , still time for the low to deepen should cold air dig in quicker , but may 2 cm south of sutton / north downs area is my call on latest radar

Disappointing if it does. Almost as disappointing as the news of the wantaway Frenchman this morning.

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2 minutes ago, snowking said:

Much better 6z Euro4 and looks broadly more in line with radar returns at this stage - all to do with that wave forming a full centre (unlike the 6z GFS) and helping to engage that colder air sooner

As we all know though (and as the met office are at pains to stress) - we really don't entirely know how this will unfold

Good to see an old timer back,

 

The Euro4 is that free on web SK or behind a fire wall ?

Personally feels like we just miss something exciting which is a real shame , appreciate not everyone cup of tea but i do enjoy extremes and blizzards in london area is extreme !! anyway hope all get home ok

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1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Heathrow have cancelled a lot of flights from 3pm ,one would assume they are kept well informed on weather conditions well before others 

One assumes they have the problem that no one knows if or when the rain will turn to snow and if it does, they will have to close runways whilst they clear them. Assume they can put down anything to prevent the snow from accumulating as the rain will wash it away

the runways are so close to capacity that any shut downs will have a huge effect - add on the fact that they will be operating on a slow slot turn around because of the low cloud base anyway and it's understand able that they are taking precautions  

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One assumes they have the problem that no one knows if or when the rain will turn to snow and if it does, they will have to close runways whilst they clear them. Assume they can put down anything to prevent the snow from accumulating as the rain will wash it away

the runways are so close to capacity that any shut downs will have a huge effect - add on the fact that they will be operating on a slow slot turn around because of the low cloud base anyway and it's understand able that they are taking precautions  

Current Heathrow TAF is as follows:

EGLL 121056Z 1212/1318 23008KT 9999 -RA BKN020 TEMPO 1212/1216 4000 RA BKN008 BECMG 1215/1217 33016G26KT TEMPO 1216/1220 1200 SNRA BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1217/1220 33022G36KT 0500 SN BKN001 BECMG 1219/1222 29012KT 9999 NSW FEW020 TEMPO 1307/1309 30018G28KT 1200 -SN BKN004 BECMG 1309/1311 31020G32KT

So they expect rain until 4pm then rain/snow until 8pm with lowish (1.2km) visibility and a chance snow will drop visibility to 500m.  If that happened they'd definitely need to space out flights more and thus cancel a few.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One assumes they have the problem that no one knows if or when the rain will turn to snow and if it does, they will have to close runways whilst they clear them. Assume they can put down anything to prevent the snow from accumulating as the rain will wash it away

the runways are so close to capacity that any shut downs will have a huge effect - add on the fact that they will be operating on a slow slot turn around because of the low cloud base anyway and it's understand able that they are taking precautions  

yes like every firm they have to take precaution... but I do believe ( from what I have been told ) that airports are one of a few places that get weather info before us .. so mearly saying they may well know something us civilians don't :)

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1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Yamkin is a legend.  But even he wouldn't be ramping this evening's event up.  Looks like a damp squib to me but plenty of other opportunities over the next couple of weeks by the looks of it!

Rain / 6.8C here

He sort of is over JP weather forum he might pop in here. :rofl: 

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I'm rushed off my feet. Keeping up to date with Raintoday, various model outputs, the Mod thread, the regional thread, oh and trying to do some work.......I'm spinning plates here!

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2 hours ago, Great Plum said:

13 years for me!

I wonder how long it is for me, i go back to when i was plain jennyjane, lol, i had to add the 1 on the end as i could no longer log in for some reason, ad i remember the old weather boards, will it snow in Carlisle? Nuff said.

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23 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Heathrow have cancelled a lot of flights from 3pm ,one would assume they are kept well informed on weather conditions well before others 

Friends is a ramp agent at Gatwick and they've been told to expect snow from 3pm onwards.

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Been lurking in the back ground for a while , thought it was time I popped back in to say hello .Nice to see some of you from years ago , just checked my profile and been a member for nearly 7 years , god knows where that time went !!anyway fingers crossed some of us see a flake or 2 later .Temp here has started to fall very slowly it  is currently 6.8 ,dew point 5.4 

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1 hour ago, Southender said:

Very good. There's a few of us in here from the Southend/Rochford/Leigh/Benfleet areas. Always good fun when snow is around. Lamp posts at the ready from around 6-9pm.

I'm an ex southender! I remember snow and ice in westcliff, the narrow side streets were not fun to drive down.

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26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Where I lived there for 30 years ,parts of the town by hospital quite high

Yeah I live in Franklands village by the hospital, my house half way down the hill though at 62 meter ASL

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has been raining here for over an hr now, not heavy ,temp has dropped rather chilly now, just woke up from my afternoon nap ready for the fun and games :)

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