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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


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It's settling now 

I think snow chances this evening for most of us that live at low-levels will depend very much on how quickly the colder and drier arctic air undercuts the rain from the NW - which will relate to how

I've only just realised what a bunch of nutters we all are lol. All this drama for a 'bit' of snow .... I've spent hours if not days n days watching all this unfold .....Now all I'm left with is about

Posted Images

Just now, Ben Lewis said:

"100 flights cancelled at Heathrow due to snow" source: BBC news.

How embarrassing- other countries must absolutely pi** themselves at us. 

Fair enough if we were due some 6 inch blizzard, but it's a 50/50 possibility of a rain to snow event - there isn't even an Amber warning! 

The bbc news live reporters at gritting depots are equally cringeworthy!

The UK media irrational fear over a flake of snow is part of the problem here. Uncessecary scare mongering "artic cold to batter U.K." Whilst standing in front of England's green hills... pathetic! 

Just when you thought we were maybe getting slightly better with all those colder winters, our long period of mild winters bring us back to a one small snowflake = panic affair. Modern britishness at its best.

NviswhEj82Vr2.gif

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Its going to be a real treat tonight ! (and with lots of chances over the next couple of weeks) and I know this not because an urgent APB has been put out to all Croydon gritters, but because my mum was due to land at Heathrow @ 150pm (returning from NZ) and this has already being put back to 330pm.. is the harbinger of weather doom !

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20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Good morning,  south eastern contingent. 

Just poped in quick. 

This morning s 6z gfs has potentially the sharpest cold spell/incursion for our little part of the world in many 'a' moons -12/14 850hpas looking distinctive as we move through next week with ample opportunities for convection= precipitation in snow flurry/shower penertation. 

I'll pop back in later as we move towards a possible back edgr conversion to "at least" falling snow this evening/ tomorrow. ..still lots of resolve on this yet. ..have a good en.

gfs-1-240-2.png

Day 10 eye candy...bring on the Thames Streamer :cold:

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2 minutes ago, Buzzit said:

Its going to be a real treat tonight ! (and with lots of chances over the next couple of weeks) and I know this not because an urgent APB has been put out to all Croydon gritters, but because my mum was due to land at Heathrow @ 150pm (returning from NZ) and this has already being put back to 330pm.. is the harbinger of weather doom !

Yamkin.....is that you? :D

Edited by Southender
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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think snow chances this evening for most of us that live at low-levels will depend very much on how quickly the colder and drier arctic air undercuts the rain from the NW - which will relate to how developed the wave low will be when it clears. If the wave is flatter than forecast by those models which are most keen on rain to snow at low-levels, then cold/dry air from the NW will be less inclined to undercut, deeper then game on.

I use the partial thickness (850-1000mb) and dew points as a guide to snow potential to low-levels.

Ideally need a 1290 dam or below for snow to fall, 1300 the limit with heavier precip. Also need dew point of 0C or below.

Both 129 gpdm line and 0C dp lines lagging the precip to the NW at 6pm, so may still be rain by then apart from above 150m

thk_18z.pngdp_18z.pngrain_18z.png

However, by 9pm, the 129 and 0C lines have caught up the rain to turn it to snow on back edge

thk_21z.pngdp_21z.pngrain_21z.png

However, if we are deeper than 06z GFS, latest EURO4 from 06z nearly 10mb deeper at 6pm with developing centre of low, then we could see stronger snow signal as cold/dry air more likely to undercut from NW:

06z GFS 6pm

viewimage2CJ9A988.png

EURO4 6pm

17011218_1206.gif

So you can see why there is this uncertainty, even only 6-7hrs out.

Excellent post Nick. So, forget anything before dark and get your lamp post ready from 6pm till around 10pm!

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

Yamkin.....is that you? :D

Haha no... but I havent been around since about 2013 though.. so remember Yamkin as if it was yesterday..

I do wonder if yamkin1 on twitter is the person though

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

However, if we are deeper than 06z GFS, latest EURO4 from 06z nearly 10mb deeper at 6pm with developing centre of low, then we could see stronger snow signal as cold/dry air more likely 

EURO4 6pm

17011218_1206.gif

Bank, let's hope euro4 is on the money

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10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

So you can see why there is this uncertainty, even only 6-7hrs out.

Horrible dilemma for forecasters this evening. Knowing what the roads are like at 6pm - this is not a good place for them. Latest AROME run.

3526_lop6.png

It may not lie but driving through that with visibility problems, you can imagine accident potential.

Edited by Nouska
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We are going to need that cold air to really blast in to freeze the now sodden ground.

we will see flakes this evening but I am now not sure at all about it laying in a lot of areas, simply too warm and wet on the ground 

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

Excellent post Nick. So, forget anything before dark and get your lamp post ready from 6pm till around 10pm!

Most likely after dark, yes, though wherever rainfall is heavy, evaporative cooling may lower the temperature enough to bring the snowfall level down quite quickly - settling is another matter too, the heavier the better as the ground will be wet.

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1 minute ago, Weather Wonder said:

Bank, let's hope euro4 is on the money

Just seen your signature. Hahahaaa, who was it that used to say that all the time in the model thread?

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1 minute ago, Buzzit said:

Haha no... but I havent been around since about 2013 though.. so remember Yamkin as if it was yesterday..

I do wonder if yamkin1 on twitter is the person though

He's still rampin and giving full gritter analysis somewhere else.

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6 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

You coukld walk its not that far lol

It's 3 miles from my office to home! However if we get deep snow next week then hell yeah I'll walk it!

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15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Should see a decent covering there,get your sledge ready !

Sounds good past events have proven pretty good to be fair it's the roads on the way which are a problem lol 

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So the day of excitement has arrived, fingers crossed everyone who wants to see snow does so. Will be a lot of lamppost watching later. I think there will be some nasty wind gusts for a time, something to watch out for too.

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