Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

This starts at 192 hours on the GFS and is still bringing in cold air here at T234. Still FI but at least it's not starting 300 hours or something.

[phil nw.]

This run shows what can happen even in this relatively flat pattern that we can get a 2/ 3 day northerly with -6/8C uppers.Obviously out of the reliable but underlines what can pop up if the high moves away into the Atlantic and we see just enough ridging.

[radiohead]

A bit of snow for almost everywhere on the 12Z GFS. Northwest Scotland getting the best.

[Ali1977]

WOW, awesome run. PossEasterly setting up here after a 5 day freeze

Mid that very small chance of very cold air the METO mentioned about to show up?

Edited January 4, 2017 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, radiohead said:

This starts at 192 hours on the GFS and is still bringing in cold air here at T234. Still FI but at least it's not starting 300 hours or something.

And at least its not totally out of kilter with broad expectations based on modelling for a few days now iif at the cold end of the spread.

[Seasonality]

That is one cold North Westerly perfectly positioned for Great Britain and the coldest air pushed all the way to France. Fine margins though at this time scale.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent gfs for NW Britain with a very cold north wester followed by a bitter northerly.Not sure if ukmo is better or worse at 144..

Play the GFS on into FI just imagine, GFS usual tricks though Stella Stella, flop 

Bit like real life really.. 

 

[radiohead]

Now a northeasterly flow with the ridge extending northwards...Well into FI-land now, but nice to see the cold spell last more than 6 hours!

[radiohead]

This is a cracking run. T312.

Edited January 4, 2017 by radiohead

[Daniel*]

Lovely jubbly GFS 12z op offering sustained cold. It gets better and better in fact FI is very similar to that of the GFS 18hrs from last night, almost a mirror image.

 

[northwestsnow]

Jeez gfs12z is an absolute humdinger.

A proper cold spell right there, i want to believe, and i REALLY mean i want to believe...

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

That is one cold North Westerly perfectly positioned for Great Britain and the coldest air pushed all the way to France. Fine margins though at this time scale.

Temps hardly above 0c plenty of snow showers and a wind chill average of around -10c......YES! Please

Edited January 4, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[Eskimo]

Saw something similar being modeled a couple of days ago from the GFS right at the end of the run (+384).  Now this is showing at +312!

Are we onto something here? 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

This is a cracking run. T312.

Best run of the year, just hope it comes true but not holding my breath. This is a significant cold spell, Atleast 2 weeks I'd say. 

[Ali1977]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Saw something similar being modeled a couple of days ago from the GFS right at the end of the run (+384).  Now this is showing at +312!

Are we onto something here? 

This starts at day 8, not too far away really.  Just would hate it to end up as a 2 day chilly toppler though

[Weathizard]

Phantom easterlies post day 10 again, what a surprise  A word of caution re: uppers from the north west, we've seen this before where 850's are modelled much lower than they turn out to be.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Saw something similar being modeled a couple of days ago from the GFS right at the end of the run (+384).  Now this is showing at +312!

Are we onto something here? 

The cold starts at 192. If we can get it to survive another day....

[Seasonality]

Nice eye candy

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

The cold starts at 192. If we can get it to survive another day....

Then it is one day closer to failure? Joking. But seriously if this run verified the cold is still in place at 384h and would continue on...

 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Saw something similar being modeled a couple of days ago from the GFS right at the end of the run (+384).  Now this is showing at +312!

Are we onto something here? 

Guess you weren't around but what's the chance of that? Very similar to the FI to 18z of yesterday, maybe something's afoot. 

[tight isobar]

Text book northerly. .

Followed by large ridge @russia..making for a devolping north-easterly flow...digging DECENT cold inflow...yes a while away.

But the evolution is smooth and feasible. 

[radiohead]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Nice eye candy

Then it is one day closer to failure? Joking. But seriously if this run verified the cold is still in place at 384h and would continue on...

 

And that would be quite snowy with those lows pushing up against the established cold air.

12Z GEM is not as exciting as the GFS but it looks to be setting up a northerly here too at the end of the run.

[Weathizard]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Text book northerly. .

Followed by large ridge @russia..making for a devolping north-easterly flow...digging DECENT cold inflow...yes a while away.

But the evolution is smooth and feasible. 

Until a shortwave pops up at t120 and scuppers everything! Glass half empty

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

And that would be quite snowy with those lows pushing up against the established cold air.

12Z GEM is not as exciting as the GFS but it looks to be setting up a northerly here too at the end of the run.

The GEM at 240 looks great, different to GFS but look at the ridge heading right up into Greenland. Get ECM and some ENS support and this place will be buzzing again.

[tight isobar]

Once again' the evolution is feasible. ..but the overall picture is in part-doubt that far out..so shortwave' destruction is not a worry atm!..

V-decent synoptic s via 12zgfs..as-per let's see what aunty ec says around 6:40 this evening. ..

 

[Alekos]

I hope this runs comes off for you guys ! But I fear Northern jet won't allow