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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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16 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness there has been Northern Blocking; just not in the right position to benefit us. You can hardly sat this winter has been zonal like last year. 

Exactly! Even if there was a SSW which will promote Northern Blocking, it does not guarantee UK cold, just increases our chances. That would have been harder to accept though I'd imagine. 

You can probably make the same argument for the LRF's teleconnections etc, showed potential for deep cold on our shores, but this time it went to Greece instead! :unknw:

Edited by karlos1983
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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the ecm went downhill at a rate of knots after 168!! 

We had a euro low in place and it looked to be setting up for a north wester, then the northern arm just swept it all away.

Is there anything we can cling to? Its getting pretty desperate now isnt it.

Ps i dont class the EC monthly as any sort of lifeline, its been signposting blocking highs at northerly lats since November, and im pretty sure it did the same last winter, im not sure if people pay for it, if i did i would be wanting a refund,its been dreadful!

Hi,

EPS 46 is showing a colder spell for the UK from Jan 13th to Jan 19th. However, the last run just a few days ago was showing the UK under colder than average conditions for all of January. Those EPS 46 runs have zero consistency and I personally view them as fiction, for the moment anyway.

I think pretty much anything can happen after day 12 at the moment, but I would suspect the confidence for colder than average conditions for January would have slipped with the MetOffice over the past 3-4 days. No idea what their own models show, though.

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You may want to check your calendar knocks. Presume you mean the second half of Jan rather then the first? 

And luke, if you are going to diss macro forecasts of HLB, then please can we see a hemispheric chart to back it up. No doubt that this winter has failed to deliver  for nw Europe coldies but it's definitely been blocked MLB rather than HLB in our part of the NH.  Maybe a halfway bust thus far and the distance between delivering/not delivering really is not as large as you might think. 

Seeing as everyone now has access to the ec46 i shall refrain from future comment on it :) So yes to be more accurate 850mb temps significantly above average until the 12th then below average until the 21st and then generally above average until the middle of Feb.

Edited by knocker
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Some posts are more suited to the Winter/Meto forecast threads. Please continue with discussion around what the models are showing.

Thanks please continue. 

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This is the Model Discussion Thread. In fairness to those who want to visit the Model Discussion Thread to see discussion about, or discuss, model output, please stick to model discussion. 

I hope that clarifies things?!

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Very broad-brush this, but it feels as if the models were - perhaps very typically - far too swift with the change of theme when they first picked it up, and have been slowing down the pace at which the jet heads south into Europe ever since, resulting in an increasingly long intermediate period in which we have an unsettled westerly regime affecting the whole country for a change, rather than mostly just the north.

Given the wide timespan of the longer-term diving trough signal for Europe, you'd think we have a fair bit of wiggle room in terms of delaying the onset, but I expect a lot of that rides on an assumption of renewed amplification propagating from upstream thanks to increased tropical/MJO activity in the Pacific. Tamara has said to watch out for this by (as early as?) mid-Jan as a means of kicking off a rise in GLAAM and so helping to facilitate some high(er) latitude blocking, so I remain hopeful, if rather wary.

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I think we are all missing the trick here, as long as pressure stays low over Greenland which it looks like it will do then we will not see anything particularly cold and sustained.So to sum it up the the theme going into next week is for mainly westerly winds occasionally switching northwesterly bring the odd colder shot.. But nothing sustained all very boring really.

Edited by Luke Attwood
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One thing i have to say is i will not believe any form of Easterly until its at t24 across all models and even then i will only be 50/50...lol been burnt many times by phantom easterlies over the past few winters.. i still feel that when cold does come it will be a sudden switch out of the blue, we all remember the 2013 WTF moment from Mr Brown..

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9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Maybe a easterly mid month we could be seeing high pressure building over to the north east and low pressure undercutting going to Europe  .:D

IMG_0182.PNG

I imagine this is the week or so of colder weather showing on the EPS 46. Surprising that confidence is so low, considering the range and how bullish the mean output was. 

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

We all no how things can quickly change with the weather..:D

Also we have seen in the past that we can get stonking cold spells even with a monster PV somebody put a post in here the other day showing either Jan 87 or Feb 91.. a monster PV and a stonking easterly.. yes its rare but it does happen. the models have shown us some close but no cigar stuff so far this winter we will get more chances im sure of that. we just need that bit of luck for it to go our way..

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

We all no how things can quickly change with the weather.:D

The pv is not the problem this year there are other forces and not even the best lrf models or pros can figure these forces..

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13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I imagine this is the week or so of colder weather showing on the EPS 46. Surprising that confidence is so low, considering the range and how bullish the mean output was. 

Presumably they see whatever has been messing with the model signal as continuing. I wonder if they know what is causing this to happen; would be interesting to find out. Perhaps this is MJO related as I think it is the only one showing amplification out of the COD.

PS. somebody a few pages back asked if it could be ocean temp related. The SST anomaly analog based forecast chart I posted a while back, suggests this is very possible .... and maybe arctic ice related too.

Edited by Gael_Force
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Just now, booferking said:

The pv is not the problem this year there are other forces and not even the best lrf models or pros can figure these forces..

 

18 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Very unlikely PV looks to organized

The pv is not the problem this year there are other forces and not even the best lrf models or pros can figure these forces out..

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46 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

I think we are all missing the trick here, as long as pressure stays low over Greenland which it looks like it will do then we will not see anything particularly cold and sustained.

I think you need to rephrase that. Very few of us are missing this at all! It's very rare that we get sustained cold weather with a strong PV over Greenland, but it has and could happen again, 1987 being an example.

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5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I think you need to rephrase that. Very few of us are missing this at all! It's very rare that we get sustained cold weather with a strong PV over Greenland, but it has and could happen again, 1987 being an example.

But your giving 1987 as a example,god that is years ago I think you should be a bit more realistic.

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