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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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We need Glosea and EC46 on the same page. EC46 was cold and blocked last time round but going from Ian's tweets Glosea was not fully on board.

however going by the BBC monthly update today I'd guess that perhaps Glosea is coming round to a slightly more blocked pattern. But without firm confirmation it's a bit of guess work to be honest. 

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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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The ec 46 will follow the eps week 2 from this morning re week 3

thats a starting point of w euro low anomoly centred n Italy and weak high anomoly across the Atlantic - so week 3 will be pretty good. Thereafter, who knows but it hasn't covered itself in too much glory thus far this winter as the eps have in general failed to see week 2 out over the past few weeks. too often it has predicted the pattern we now see on the extended ens in general (but with higher Atlantic anomolies).

as we all know, it's not come close to verifying though at least we see it showing within 12 days now! 

 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

The ec 46 will follow the eps week 2 from this morning re week 3

thats a starting point of w euro low anomoly centred n Italy and weak high anomoly across the Atlantic - so week 3 will be pretty good. Thereafter, who knows but it hasn't covered itself in too much glory thus far this winter as the eps have in general failed to see week 2 out over the past few weeks. too often it has predicted the pattern we now see on the extended ens in general (but with higher Atlantic anomolies).

as we all know, it's not come close to verifying though at least we see it showing within 12 days now! 

 

After the disappointment of the model fiasco with the Easterly, when I woke up on new years day, I was very pleasantly surprised to see quite a swing to a form of cold showing on the Ensembles in the 12-15 day range which was not as exiting as the Easterly but probably far more likely to verify (I thought) and felt confident that any Nwerly would be followed by  N'ly (not dead potent but more than a toppler and fairly unstable with the pattern far enough west that the high doesn't get in the way thus the option of troughs coming down from the North, it looks like now though its going to just be a half baked non PPN WNW flow with any wintriness grazing Scotland.

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I have been model watching for quite a while now and unfortunately have many times seen these wonderful cold charts sitting at day 10+ before. This winter has been no exception. Whatever signal(s) is/are causing the issue in the background appears to have most stumped this year with the high meandering around the UK since pretty much end of Nov and decking to move to Greenland or scandinto a more favourable position for the U.K. NH profiles may have looked good and may still do but something is causing this HP to stand its ground. Unfortunately no amount of if we could get this to move here or this to move there or more energy into the southern arm of the jet or that shortwave if it wasn't there is going to make a difference. The charts are very disappointing and I would love to know the drivers affecting our weather this year which have meant the cold has been so near but yet so far away. So many forecasts have been stumped to date. I'm sure the likes of SM, GP, Tamara and others are scratching their heads given the work they put in wondering what's missing. 

Just a question. Does anyone believe the SST pattern has been overlooked in the main and maybe a more contributing factor than first thought?

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So up to t144 GFS, GEM and ECM all offer a continuation of this pleasant winter weather (glorious here today - almost an ice day, full sun, a bit of snow on the three peaks).  Beyond that more unsettled on GEM and ECM but tolerable.  Rather hoping that the GFS route to snow from t192 (wet snow, sleet, windy - for 4 days! - we suffered Desmond and the Boxing Day storm in 2015) is not the way forward, but it does seem to underplay the Azores low and therefore the persistence of the high to the south west. So to my untrained eye ECM looks more likely up to t216.  Good model watching at the moment trying to work out how the high may be removed (if at all).

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That could indicate a continuation of the UK high though with a colder UK but no snow.

According to Essex Weather Centre's response around 30% of members bring 'real cold' to our shores.

Edited by C_Scotty
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That could indicate a continuation of the UK high though with a colder UK but no snow.

Certainly drier than average during the quoted period

MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170102_w3.png

This continues as we move into the final week of Jan weaker signals for temps by that stage as to be expected

MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170102_w4.pngMonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170102_w4.png

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13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That could indicate a continuation of the UK high though with a colder UK but no snow.

Agreed! Also the average anomalies over north west Scotland would suggests to me the that the jet is riding  over the block.

I am no expert though, so if I'm seeing that wrong please feel free to correct me lol

Edited by BM4PM
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Eps consistent on the upper ridge fading away day 11/12 as low heights drop from the north and the sceuro low anomolies back west. 

by tomorrow evening, we may have them across France by day 10!

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Evening All and Happy New Year ! :) The ops both ecm and gfs have been drinking too much over the festive period giving us frankly record breaking cold to record breaking mild over recent runs. What we are left with is something in between , nothing severe but nevertheless seasonal. As for the further outlook  in the next ten days really shows a traditional January mix of weather..... as we enter the latter part of the 10 day period  gfs is of interest ecm not.....:closedeyes:

sands.png

sandsx.png

raised-eyebrows-o.gif

freezing.gif

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Knocker,  I find that 11/16 day anomoly interesting in that it has the sceuro low encompassing the uk when the eps really doesn't. given they blend the ens together for the period, it shouldn't be much surprise the result is a halfway house. Anyway, the edging east of the mean ridge at the end of the eps is noted - something the geps showed on their 00z run. The mslp anomoly even more intriguing re some blocking getting across to our north.  

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So the ec46 continues its quest to see us in a position where we would be looking east for our weather...blocking to the north and lower heights to the south and low temps especially the further south you live. As Essex weather has quoted on twitter there is also 30% chance of it becoming very cold. Wish we could get fergies thoughts on it.

looking at the GFS & ECM they both give hints that perhaps we are moving towards the ec46 position but still some " work is to be done" before we do.

the hope of the day via bluearmy must be ......the sceuro low anomalies back west

Tasac

Edited by There's a storm a coming
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Still keeping tabs on the models & no adjustments to the thoughts posted earlier-

Could the 18z be on the right track....

S

Keep winding up everyone Steve:yahoo:

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

So the first move from the GFS to allign towards the 'potential'

- note the sharpening of the trough at 174, look for more over the next 24 hours to support further pattern change as highlighted earlier

IMG_1280.PNG

Was waiting for you around the 168hr mark thought you were in bed had giving up on us and all that:D

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