Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west. 

We need this to be a little more orientated towards the north to be in business (WAA towards west of Greenland).

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More painful viewing this morning with the wretched high pressure remaining too far east on the ECM. The GFS desperately tries to drop heights further west but the ECM is determined to keep the tedium going. Any interest skirts round the top of the high and the UK remains in the void of nothingness.

The ECM then adds insult to injury by trying to bring the Russian high westwards but likely another tease with too much energy running to the ne.

Then in the game of lets torture coldies further the GFS 06hrs run brings a shortwave se at T192hrs but of course too far east with loads of cold air to the ne but with no chance of getting further west because of the next bout of Atlantic energy heading east.

The ECM ensembles have given up the pretence and the wind directions tell a sorry story. We seem to be stuck in a rut with anything remotely interesting remaining well into FI on the GEFS.

Any amplification that does show up is unable to last through to the more reliable timeframe.

Until we see heights drop to the south then theres no chance of anything of interest and I'll believe outputs that show that when this appears within T168hrs. My advise Ignore any fantasy rubbish dished out by the operational  outputs or GEFS until changes are shown within that timeframe.

 

Yes Nick, it's been incredibly disappointing hasn't it. It seems there have been more teases than ever before this season so far. First it was early Dec, then mid Dec, then end of Dec/beginning of Jan. Now it's mid Jan at best and to be honest, even that looks unlikely now. The biggest killer of this winter thus far is the complete disinterest and inability of our block to retrogress into a favourable position. I don't see any sign of this changing in the foreseeable.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west. 

I tend to agree with this, a mild eastern US often coincides with colder weather in Western Europe. Not always but something to watch.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Yes Nick, it's been incredibly disappointing hasn't it. It seems there have been more teases than ever before this season so far. First it was early Dec, then mid Dec, then end of Dec/beginning of Jan. Now it's mid Jan at best and to be honest, even that looks unlikely now. The biggest killer of this winter thus far is the complete disinterest and inability of our block to retrogress into a favourable position. I don't see any sign of this changing in the foreseeable.

Agree what makes it worse is that this winter you can see how a few tweeks could have brought some more wintry weather to the UK, last winter there was no chance.

The big issue has been the lack of amplitude upstream so effectively we've seen the high meander around , at times promise to retrogress but never managing it, or only in FI.

The lack of a coherent and amplified MJO signal has also been a big negative over the last month.

[Weathizard]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More painful viewing this morning with the wretched high pressure remaining too far east on the ECM. The GFS desperately tries to drop heights further west but the ECM is determined to keep the tedium going. Any interest skirts round the top of the high and the UK remains in the void of nothingness.

The ECM then adds insult to injury by trying to bring the Russian high westwards but likely another tease with too much energy running to the ne.

Then in the game of lets torture coldies further the GFS 06hrs run brings a shortwave se at T192hrs but of course too far east with loads of cold air to the ne but with no chance of getting further west because of the next bout of Atlantic energy heading east.

The ECM ensembles have given up the pretence and the wind directions tell a sorry story. We seem to be stuck in a rut with anything remotely interesting remaining well into FI on the GEFS.

Any amplification that does show up is unable to last through to the more reliable timeframe.

Until we see heights drop to the south then theres no chance of anything of interest and I'll believe outputs that show that when this appears within T168hrs. My advice ignore any fantasy rubbish dished out by the operational  outputs or GEFS until changes are shown within that timeframe.

 

Absolutely nick! It's almost more frustrating than the zonal train we have many winters because we've been teased several times only to end up back in the same pattern of MLB weve been stuck in for what seems like an eternity meanwhile turkey, Greece and parts of the med are digging themselves out! 

[law of averages]

21 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west. 

Isn't this what big Joe bastardi said in last few days or so...cold West side of the states, cold western Europe towards 10th onwards??... let's hope 

Edited January 2, 2017 by law of averages

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west. 

Let me guess that's from Michael Ventrice twitter account my New Year resolution is to not post any of his charts as i have done numerous times this winter and jinxed the lot of them I'm getting very superstitions this Winter.

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, booferking said:

Let me guess that's from Michael Ventrice twitter account my New Year resolution is to not post any of his charts as i have done numerous times this winter and jinxed the lot of them I'm getting very superstitions this Winter.

Glad you mentioned that, I was going to ask of any relating charts for this side of the pond....with temtping fate/jinxing it and all that.....I won't bother  

Edited January 2, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Interest for me now is as we enter mid month (ish) clearly highlighted by the ens 2m temps as the next window of opportunity for cold/snow chances. 

 

 

Agree with your analysis but what a fail for the 6-10th Jan. For several days it was showing a mean of 2/3C.

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Agree with your analysis but what a fail for the 6-10th Jan. For several days it was showing a mean of 2/3C.

Still a large spread for the 8th/9th Jan though.

[Frosty.]

Mid Jan looks wintry on the Gfs  6z

 

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west. 

Great point. Take a look at the BBC forecast from Feb 1991 presented by Ian McCaskill (on You Tube) - talks about the very mild situation in America (New York, Washington etc) prior to discussing the freezing cold UK.

If only it was as simple as that though!

[WINTRY WALES]

Can anyone recall what the weather was like in north eastern USA prior and during the December 2010 cold spell here uk

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Can anyone recall what the weather was like in north eastern USA prior and during the December 2010 cold spell here uk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2010_North_American_blizzard

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Great point. Take a look at the BBC forecast from Feb 1991 presented by Ian McCaskill (on You Tube) - talks about the very mild situation in America (New York, Washington etc) prior to discussing the freezing cold UK.

If only it was as simple as that though!

Just because it's warm in the US, it really has no bearing on our weather. I used to travel quite regularly to and from the US, especially in winter, and I've been through warm and cold winters and there is no pattern to speak of! Sorry to burst your bubble.

That said, deep cold on the east coast of the US, has often caused an empowering of the jet, which can mean we have a more westerly driven pattern!

Just to add my tuppenceworth, I won't believe any NWP outputs in the near to medium term showing proper HLB in our locality as long as the MJO and the other drivers remain the same.

[karyo]

I don't know why there is this interest in the east US weather! There is not enough relevance to what happens here.

There is a far stronger link with southeast Europe, 9/10 we have the opposite weather of what the southeast Europe gets.

[winterof79]

It is all down to how our resident Slug/High migrates no more....

Here we are as of Today

Here is a slug back in 1987

Here it is a few days later all that damn cold to the East

And here it is a few days after that

And finally she ends up here

Big fat PV also

Let us hope the high stays around long enough to run out of directions to travel and have to migrate North/N/East eventually

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by winterof79

[Seasonality]

19 minutes ago, karyo said:

I don't know why there is this interest in the east US weather! There is not enough relevance to what happens here.

There is a far stronger link with southeast Europe, 9/10 we have the opposite weather of what the southeast Europe gets.

Very true in set ups like the UK has been experiencing this winter. I haven't spotted such a strong correlation in other set ups but it would be interesting to go back through historical UK mild and cold spells to check the theory out.

[tight isobar]

@winterof79

A valid/good spot/post.

Something I have been getting at for a bit.

The high cell may well begin a gained' varient for an' introduction of advection westwards of cold pooling' and given current/previous evolution/evolution s..via output its quite a feasible option.

And certainly something to be eying over coming suites.

[bluearmy]

But with that high temp anomoly on the east coast, the jet will probably not split to undercut the ridge effectively. 

dont bother chasing an easterly - your best chance of cold is the euro trough which could lead to your easterly but it won't come from the southern arm. at the moment, uncertain if the heights hang on too close to the UK 

Edited January 2, 2017 by bluearmy

[SMU]

Afternoon -

Whilst its an unlikely avenue its worth keeping 1 eye ( or half ) on devepments @180 for the diving low-- no support from ECM however as theres not a lot of other stuff going on we can see if theres any advance on the 12z - there was 1 ENS support that developed into sub -12 air

heres the culprit at 180

[booferking]

23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

It is all down to how our resident Slug/High migrates no more....

Here we are as of Today

Here is a slug back in 1987

Here it is a few days later all that damn cold to the East

And here it is a few days after that

And finally she ends up here

Big fat PV also

Let us hope the high stays around long enough to run out of directions to travel and have to migrate North/N/East eventually

 

Great post just shows what you can get with a strong vortex we just need a bit of luck along the way nothing to do with a weak vortex as that delivered nothing start of winter,  if a strong vortex moves in a favourable position this can deliver bigtime.. You just need everything to fall into place for this small isle which rarely happens.

[MR EXTREMES]

Interesting read from earlier tweet from states.

 

[ArHu3]

10 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Interesting read from earlier tweet from states.

 

that will surely influence us next week post 192h, I think this is what he is refering too

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by ArHu3

[SMU]

it may be nothing but I like the UKMO 96