Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[cyclonic happiness]

Totally different FI again! How the heck will we ever get a grip on this situation?

I suppose we haven't got raging zonality, so that's at least a starting block. But this is getting very frustrating for everyone now, isn't it?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Stozzy said:

What a turn around , however the meto still think a north / north easterly next weekend . We shall see

Not from what I've read. That's an outsider as far as the met are concerned. They are going for N and NW'ly going forward and have dropped NE and Erly

[stewfox]

4 minutes ago, There's a storm a coming said:

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to move back towards the ecm at around 144hrs - 168 hrs but it wants to strengthen the northern arm of the jet stream which eventually pushes the high pressure block over us and into Europe flooding southern and southeastern Europe with very cold air. But that is some large high pressure block....you never know it could stay further north and "bobs your uncle"

tasac

Time will tell

12 z T168

6z T168

[Scandinavian High.]

I'm not giving up on cold spell meto  are going with North easterly next weekend meto can see a lot more then us can't see meto being left with egg on faces.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO seems to be following the ideas from the beeb today of North Westerly winds during next weekend bringing a few wintry showers

Awaiting extended  UKMO around 19:30 to see if it fully backs these thoughts looking at t144 I would say it will

Edited December 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[LRD]

The UKMO model has been superb during the last 48 hours or so. Consistent in its outlook (although it seems to have taken a step towards cold tonight - possibly temporary). It really is the short term King. It seems the longer term models have failed this winter but I don't see the point of people calling for them to be scrapped. They need to continue to evolve, pushing met science as far as we possibly can

[Norrona2015]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Certainly an opinion I'd subscribe to.

[knocker]

Although model rainfall statistics are a million miles away from being reliable the ten day totals do give an idea of the continued high pressure influence with most areas, apart from the far north west, remaining very dry.

[Norrona2015]

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I'm not giving up on cold spell meto  are going with North easterly next weekend meto can see a lot more then us can't see meto being left with egg on faces.

I suspect a revision will follow in due course.

[Mucka]

Having looked through all the available output I'd say GFS being a little too emphatic with the Eastward push and flattening of the pattern, quite often happens when the models pick up a new signal - they over emphasize it.

With that weighting bias in mind and the idea that we are now seeing the correct solution modeled out to T72/96, re the interaction between the high pressure and the low to our South, I expect we will see the scales rebound a little a slight Westward correction and more amplification than the 12z has modeled.

That would at least give us the glancing Northerly and a better chance of reamplifying the pattern toward Scandinavia. 

We may see a continuation of the trend of Eastward correction and flatter but I feel we have hit the bottom of that pit - it is just a case of readjusting expectations tot he new reality and staying optimistic that we can rebuild blocking.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Mucka

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO seems to be following the ideas from the beeb today of North Westerly winds during next weekend bringing a few wintry showers

Awaiting extended  UKMO around 19:30 to see it fully backs these thoughts looking at t144 I would say it will

Can I ask am I looking in wrong place Meto are going for a north  easterly in there future ahead outlook.

[Jason M]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

Maybe the lesson in all this is that too much attention is given to long range forecasting tools. By this, I don't mean they should be ignored but I do think there is a tendency to hang on the outputs too much. The added benefit of such models in our climate is where they can predict the big cold spell / northern blocking. This episode (along with a few others) proves that they can't do that with any great confidence. There remains no evidence of any HLB in the short / medium term output that we see, but this idea keeps being raised in the longer term but is forever being put back.

To be clear, I am not saying that it should be ignored just that any of these longer term predictions come with a very low success ratio that can be disguised by climatology. A good example being the last few years where the outlook has essentially been mild all the way, this can make the longer term forecasting tools seem better than they really are when they predict the climatic norm. In essence can they predict the 'exception'? The answer seems to be 'occasionally, but not very often'.

Looking forward from what we see tonight its not unreasonable to say there is no evidence for a sustained / meaningful cold spell in the next 8-10 days. Beyond that things might pop up, which last year simply wasn't going to happen so overall we are still in a better place than this time last year.

 

[pyrotech]

The elephant in the room is the high pressure, In fi there are so many different scenarios for what will happen to it. A nudge west and as the latest run of GFS shows we get cold air and snow possibilities, a little further east we get cold and dry and further east in to a Euro high we get more Atlantic intrusion.

There is no consistency yet but the different possibilities make model watching interesting

The latest GFS again tries to give a cold intrusion at 12 days, and at least this year there is atmospheric opportunities compared to last year.

happy new year all

Im just leaving for 15 hour night shift which is why no charts posted to demo what i find interesting

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I'm not giving up on cold spell meto  are going with North easterly next weekend meto can see a lot more then us can't see meto being left with egg on faces.

Close

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Can I ask am I looking in wrong place Meto are going for a north  easterly in there future ahead outlook.

Without taking the thread totally off topic take a look in the Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17 thread that data the beeb use is provided by the met office

Back on topic

Edited December 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[There's a storm a coming]

With 2 of the top models 12z out. (UKMO & GFS) They show a slightly better outlook up to 144hrs. If it's cold your looking for.  Let's see what the ECM comes up with later. I think it will follow the same route as this morning up to 144hrs and then the "odds on favourite"  after that would be for the high pressure to be over the uk bringing further frosts and fog 

tasac

[IDO]

Looking at the mean compared to the 06z (that had pushed the pattern east several hundred miles), the 12z again pushes the mean trough around 200 miles further east again, not even a glancing blow on that:

06z12z:

That looks solid continuity with just the shift in the pattern east. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by IDO

[Stuie]

Looks like the States is "warming" up a tad as well, something seems afoot. Vortex on the move I would think.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although model rainfall statistics are a million miles away from being reliable the ten day totals do give an idea of the continued high pressure influence with most areas, apart from the far north west, remaining very dry.

 

 

According to my weather station, it detected only 17mm or so during the whole of December 2016, so that's around about 20 percent of expected precipitation totals. January bar a few wintry interludes, to begin with, is set to follow a similar theme, at least for the first week. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Weathizard]

Unfortunately the 12z ENS are a further move away from any cold outcome - pretty abysmal at day 7 being honest, ECM will be crucial this evening.

[Hotspur62]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Having looked through all the available output I'd say GFS being a little too emphatic with the Eastward push and flattening of the pattern, quite often happens when the models pick up a new signal - they over emphasize it.

With that weighting bias in mind and the idea that we are now seeing the correct solution modeled out to T72/96, re the interaction between the high pressure and the low to our South, I expect we will see the scales rebound a little a slight Westward correction and more amplification than the 12z has modeled.

That would at least give us the glancing Northerly and a better chance of reamplifying the pattern toward Scandinavia. 

We may see a continuation of the trend of Eastward correction and flatter but I feel we have hit the bottom of that pit - it is just a case of readjusting expectations tot he new reality and staying optimistic that we can rebuild blocking.

Agree with this and i think the 12z GFS is too progressive as is nomally the case with this model with Atlantic coming in.It really is tough luck on UK as the cold weather is only about 200miles East of us but that is the way it has gone in last 3/4 years.I know it is FI but that looks quite a robust Scandi High and it would only take minor alterations for us to tap into a cold spell.All is not lost yet..

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Unfortunately the 12z ENS are a further move away from any cold outcome - pretty abysmal at day 7 being honest, ECM will be crucial this evening.

Hmm, not sure I'd agree with abysmal. There are still some decent possibilities in there at 7/8 IMHO. I think the trend overall today is clearly (and strongly) in the wrong direction but I've seen far worse GEFS suites than the 12Z rolling out now. 

[nick sussex]

Very frustrating output so far this evening. In typical model fashion the UKMO which was the one previous output no one wanted to verify is now better for cold than the GFS. And we get the cold closer to the east earlier but still not close enough.

Edited December 31, 2016 by nick sussex

[gottolovethisweather]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Unfortunately the 12z ENS are a further move away from any cold outcome - pretty abysmal at day 7 being honest, ECM will be crucial this evening.

Yes, moisture-laden Southwesterlies bringing endless above average temperatures by day and night and destructive gales for farming, the natural world and humans alike is something I don't want to witness. No, wait, that was 2015 and um, 2014 and 2013 or whenever. Granted, it is not the ideal bitter cold snowy (yes some snow is to be expected for a few within 24 hours) weather situation but it isn't HELL ON EARTH. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Seasonality]

I can see how runs like this are frustrating for some. Continual reloading pulses of cold air into central, eastern and south eastern Europe.