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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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LOL - keep cam people, it would appear our friend Shannon is coming for New Years drinks :whistling:

 

IMG_5074.GIF

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Full 06z ens

MT8_London_ens.png

You would expect a watering down of the METO long range today looking at the GFS - still some cold runs but now way in the minority.

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Full 06z ens

MT8_London_ens.png

Oh dear! That is a massive switch in the ensembles medium-longer term, big scatter but when you think the mean yesterday was below -5 for about a 6 day period. Really poor!

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

You would expect a watering down of the METO long range today looking at the GFS - still some cold runs but now way in the minority.

The watering down will have nothing to do with gfs. The eps have trended back more anticyclonic over the uk rather than just north. Wouldn't expect the wording on the 30 dayer to change at all. The 15 dayer probably less chat about the potential for the flow to be northeasterly with wintry showers as the blocking has edged closer last two suites,  but that apart, can't see much will change. 

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6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Hi Steve

I read your posts regularly and have learnt a lot from you.however your post has left me some what confused "I'm afraid it over"what is over,nothing has begun has it?

 C.S

in other words the models have come inline with the ukmo model apart from the ecm.

but wouldnt worry ecm is likely to drop its phantom blocking to look more like the ukmo and gfs on 12z.

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

in other words the models have come inline with the ukmo model apart from the ecm.

but wouldnt worry ecm is likely to drop its phantom blocking to look more like the ukmo and gfs on 12z.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Some cold runs in there for sure

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I think we should still advise caution going forward as we still can't give a credible amount of confidence that we have the Azores low modelled correctly.

This was the arpege 00z from this morning and was actually better than the 12z yesterday.

arpegeeur-0-102.png

I wouldn't be writing the epitaph for the first half of January just yet. 

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Lmao you have to laugh at the recent model watching drama!! We've gone from narnia to the book of eli in the space of 48 hours. Not great for cold and snow now but with Jan and Feb left there's plenty of time for some white stuff. 

In the mean time have a good new year everyone. All the best for 2017 

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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

150% true. When one considers the last 15 days of weather watching..... the hope of mid Dec plummeting to the misery of Xmas week and all the zonal predictions that started to appear... to the euphoria of THAT GFS of only 2 days ago - it beggars belief. In reality the winter we have had so far has been pretty close to what was expected. It has been mostly dry, mostly anticyclonic, frosty at times and with few storms. The frustration was that we didnt get a snowy block - but these are very rare in December.

We hit January tomorrow. Coldest month.... better overall history of blocking..... low solar activity at present.... MJO weakly supportive of blocking.... no sign of any atlantic push.... AO forecast to head negative.... -PNA sustained forecast.... cold air bottling to our East..... heights broadly forecast to lower to our south.... GP holding his ground.... Tamara ready to fire her pistol in a fortnight... Brian Gaze speaking positively from over on the Dark Side..... frictional torques looking to move upwards thereby helping sustain a degree of amplification within a Nina envelope.... EC46 talking of blocking...... CFS talking of blocking..... 

... and still we have bouts of misery in here. Leave the misery to the posters who hate cold. We all know who they are and they will paint a "disappointing" picture whatever the signals. But for everyone else of an interested or snow hunting perspective learn the lesson of the last fortnight and trust in the developing pattern. Can NEVER guarantee anything but ENJOY the fact that January looks to have lots of potential.

Better post a chart - so this one for me this morning. 

17010718_3106_02.gif

 

That's the 25% cluster for next weekend from the 18z GFS last night. Overall it was 60/40 against the block being as high as this - but to be honest in UK weather terms at 7 days range I'll take those odds happily. Better than a 95/5 split pointing at screaming westerlies!!!! And plenty of time for further changes.....

this is not a snipe just trying to be little more positive but really.

west qbo, pretty robust vortex, la nina, not really ideal.

the weak mjo not really helping at all!

low solar activity does normally help influence atmospheric set ups well it did in the 80s and especially 09/10 but of coarse we had no sustained spotless days this year. 

ec46 and the pretty awful cfs, not a touch on the glosea.

as for joe b please i like the his excitement,

but wrong alot every year since 09/10,

certainly when it comes to uk, but then i can understand why being as were on a little island.

easier to forecast on bigger land masses where cold is more common.

and lets not forget jet stream which is pretty much  being energised firing at us or over the top .

as for this weekends northerly well typical arctic blast.

i tell you what i take a two day ban if we get a true easterly or north easterly that last more than a week/

or  even a couple of wintry days with wintry showers in the south before months end.

 

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There's another important thing to bear in mind when viewing model runs - operational runs will often swing from run to run and day to day, I think we all expect that. However many of us will take comfort in the fact that a particular op run is an outlier in the ensemble suite, but it's important to remember that the ensemble suite can just as easily switch from a predominantly cold outlook to a mild one quite quickly. So if an op run shows something that appears to be an outlier, don't be surprised if after a few more runs the ensemble suite follows it and you see a switch, such as the GFS 6z this morning. 

The operational runs will often pick up on a trend, and it may take a few runs for the ensembles to pick up on it.

So whilst we should definitely not get carried away/downhearted with each and every Operational run, equally we shouldn't discount it just because it may appear to be an outlier.

Edited by danm

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26 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

in other words the models have come inline with the ukmo model apart from the ecm.

but wouldnt worry ecm is likely to drop its phantom blocking to look more like the ukmo and gfs on 12z.

 

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

this is not a snipe just trying to be little more positive but really.

west qbo, pretty robust vortex, la nina, not really ideal.

the weak mjo not really helping at all!

low solar activity does normally help influence atmospheric set ups well it did in the 80s and especially 09/10 but of coarse we had no sustained spotless days this year. 

ec46 and the pretty awful cfs, not a touch on the glosea.

as for joe b please i like the his excitement,

but wrong alot every year since 09/10,

certainly when it comes to uk, but then i can understand why being as were on a little island.

easier to forecast on bigger land masses where cold is more common.

and lets not forget jet stream which is pretty much  being energised firing at us or over the top .

as for this weekends northerly well typical arctic blast.

i tell you what i take a two day ban if we get a true easterly or north easterly that last more than a week/

or  even a couple of wintry days with wintry showers in the south before months end.

 

Constructive criticism, but it would make your posts much easier to read if you used punctuation, paragraph structure and checked your spelling and grammar. You've mentioned a couple of factors that go against cold but the picture is much, much more complex than that as Catacol and those he mentions in his post have explained in such detail. Also regarding UKMO vs ECM, they are of course the top two when it comes to verification with the GFS lagging somewhat behind. Writing off either of the UKMO or ECM solutions not a good idea and either could be the way forward. A good deal of what is said about the models on this forum is anecdotal "some bloke in the pub told me" type stuff but the verification stats viewed over time do not lie.

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Love the 'bi polar' nature of this thread - in both directions!

Nothing has changed in the 8/15 day timeframe

where will the ridge set up ??

EDIT: that's the 12z para mr extreme - the 18z and 00z appear to have given up re the Azores low!

I disagree with that, the mean has got worse on the GEFS steadily since those good runs a few days ago, the number of proper cold solutions has  dropped to just a few now. The ECM eps still look ok IN LONDON GRAPH FORM but the tweets from people who have access to them suggests that is skewed by faux cold, the ones peaking at only just above freezing cant be from N'werlis as London wouldn't be that cold from that setup, there aren't many Easterlies as we have heard, so that leaves dry cold,

Holy shi though a split / near split all the way down the atmosphere, we would be in business if that verified!!!!

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Folks, this really ought not to be a daily thing, this being the model thread, discussion of updates to public weather forecasts aren't part of the discussion, even if you consider them interlinked. So please, tomorrow when the meto next update their forecasts, and every day thereafter, please discuss them in the meto discussion thread, it's better for everyone that way or we may as well just open a single all encompassing weather free for all thread which would be utter carnage!

 

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Even the mighty NAVGEM following suit.

navgem-0-144.png?31-12

Edited by mulzy

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46 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Some cold runs in there for sure

Looks same as GEFS - split about 50/50

We've simply gone from a leaning towards the easterly, back to uncertainty.

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5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Even the mighty NAVGEM following suit.

 

I had better go and look then :wink: good job I know where to.

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I disagree with that, the mean has got worse on the GEFS steadily since those good runs a few days ago, the number of proper cold solutions has  dropped to just a few now. The ECM eps still look ok IN LONDON GRAPH FORM but the tweets from people who have access to them suggests that is skewed by faux cold, the ones peaking at only just above freezing cant be from N'werlis as London wouldn't be that cold from that setup, there aren't many Easterlies as we have heard, so that leaves dry cold,

Holy shi though a split / near split all the way down the atmosphere, we would be in business if that verified!!!!

I don't have access for charts but I can see plumes for my region, today's 0z is better than yesterday's 12z more members going for cold with some clustering and most members going for nw/n or ne 

Screenshot 2016-12-31 13.59.59.png

Screenshot 2016-12-31 13.59.46.png

Screenshot 2016-12-31 13.59.37.png

Screenshot 2016-12-31 13.59.23.png

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Can I just ask a question to clarify? @Tamara mentioned firing the starting pistol analogy in her post yesterday which a number of people have picked up on, seeming to suggest possible developments in two weeks time? My interpretation was that we are still waiting for the starting pistol to fire and when/if it does the possible consequences will be two weeks from then (rather than now)?

 

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Well after that 06Z its back to the drawing board if we are seeking a very cold spell with snow.

I have been saying ignore the ensembles and follow the operationals and this looks to be true. What you will find is the 850hpa mean will increase further in subsequent runs. I have seen this pattern so many times before.

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30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks same as GEFS - split about 50/50

We've simply gone from a leaning towards the easterly, back to uncertainty.

More like we have gone from an unlikely Easterly to a very very unlikely Easterly.

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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well after that 06Z its back to the drawing board if we are seeking a very cold spell with snow.

I have been saying ignore the ensembles and follow the operationals and this looks to be true. What you will find is the 850hpa mean will increase further in subsequent runs. I have seen this pattern so many times before.

But it was the operationals peeps were citing, TEITS? I'm sure it was a GFS 06Z operational that started the ball rolling, in the first place?:cc_confused:

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5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well after that 06Z its back to the drawing board if we are seeking a very cold spell with snow.

I have been saying ignore the ensembles and follow the operationals and this looks to be true. What you will find is the 850hpa mean will increase further in subsequent runs. I have seen this pattern so many times before.

What happened to your monitoring of how many members build HP around Iceland?;)

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