Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Frank Trough]

Lots of chopping and changing but the general direction of travel all seems to be heading in the wrong direction in the mid term. Ukmo proves the dream crusher again. 

Was it nick Sussex that used to say something like "if the ukmo says no you won't get snow"? 

Something like that. 

[karlos1983]

I think it's probably a safe bet to say that this op will sit on the mild side off the ensembles. 

[jimben]

The UKMO, which of course is the model that we all should follow, didn't lead anyone up the garden path or provide false hope. Well done them. They are of course also suggesting colder and snowier  later next month.

[blizzard81]

49 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Joe b expects the models to keep trying to remove it and keep having to correct back for it to remain in place. be interesting to see if the GFS come back at some point today. He also has a theory on the se USA ridge which he believes is erroneous and will be replaced with a trough (at least further north if not covering Florida/Georgia/s carlolina). his theory is based on the very deep cold coming into the w of America which he believes the models are struggling to resolve in respect of how they interact with the rockies. (Creating a feedback loop which keeps the troughing too deep to the west ).

if true, that would clearly change the dynamics of any split jet off the eastern seaboard and likely the locale of the Atlantic ridging. 

I'm not being funny but Joe B always looks for excuses for cold to develop. His love of cold clouds his judgement more often than not. Not good for a professional and can be very misleading.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, jimben said:

The UKMO, which of course is the model that we all should follow, didn't lead anyone up the garden path or provide false hope. Well done them. They are of course also suggesting colder and snowier  later next month.

Thats the same outfit that is going for Northerly to North Easterly this weekend coming with wintry showers spreading South..

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, jimben said:

The UKMO, which of course is the model that we all should follow, didn't lead anyone up the garden path or provide false hope. Well done them. They are of course also suggesting colder and snowier  later next month.

They say cold and dry with low probability of an easterly.

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

We knew that GFS 06z of two days ago would be downgraded, but this is a complete about turn:

NowThen

I don't think the turnaround could have been worse!

This winter really has been like pulling teeth. I think we all need to find a different hobby until next winter lol.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, jimben said:

The UKMO, which of course is the model that we all should follow, didn't lead anyone up the garden path or provide false hope. Well done them. They are of course also suggesting colder and snowier  later next month.

Considering that no really cold evolution has been shown within T144, not really a surprise there. 

i would still caution against the day 6 ukmo as being any more reliable than the other output and my checking back over the past few hours reveals the ecm op to be the most reliable view for days 6/7.  There was one run which went awry.

The 06z gfs is at one end of the envelope for next weekend.

[chris55]

The travel of that Azores low is the key player and UKMO seemed to have it right a few runs back.

I think there is still time for some changes regarding the feature but not much.

beyond this there is a chance we could build a scandi high, or the pattern will be somewhat flatter and milder. 

Though with ensemble support fo a cool down in the latter mid range (day 10) there is still lots to be decided. 

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

if things fall into place like the arrows show surely that would lead to better set up for colder.

The monster ridge could however simply push the PV our side of the pole making a HLB even more difficult.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm not being funny but Joe B always looks for excuses for cold to develop. His love of cold clouds his judgement more often than not. Not good for a professional and can be very misleading.

I think his view of the winter stateside has proved to be slightly more accurate than most thus far. 

I agree that he is looking for cold but he makes a reasoned argument and the models are currently following his thoughts as they correct the hemispheric pattern. (Note the Azores  low isn't a player hemispherically!)

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Considering that no really cold evolution has been shown within T144, not really a surprise there. 

i would still caution against the day 6 ukmo as being any more reliable than the other output and my checking back over the past few hours reveals the ecm op to be the most reliable view for days 6/7.  There was one run which went awry.

The 06z gfs is at one end of the envelope for next weekend.

Dont think he was taking only about the model he was on about the Metoffice also.

[legritter]

Just now, IDO said:

We knew that GFS 06z of two days ago would be downgraded, but this is a complete about turn:

NowThen

I don't think the turnaround could have been worse!

i,m trying not to look ,still i,m certain that next weekend being 7 days away is nowhere beiing modeled at the moment .totally different on ECM , GFS later today may totally flip back ,expect one hell of a roller coaster ,met office update critical today also tonights runs , it seems to be the placing of high pressure so gang chill out ,the last straw [its still 2016] mid level block stop taking the pi.. ,cheers gang 

[stewfox]

The last 10 GFS runs have been good,bad,good,bad etc

Small correction of 1,000 miles west at T120 could deliver. Optimism for New Years Eve.

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by stewfox

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, shaky said:

I just cant believe it!!we had ensembles and the control/op runs nearly at 100%agreement for a greenland high and then it goes tits up AGAIN!!!!!in my honest opinion i really think we should now look east between 72 and 120 hours and see if we can get that high thats in the atlantic further north and west more around iceland!!we may then see a sudden easterly develop out of nowhere!!if you take a look at the arpege 00z run and the gfs 06z run you can see that its trying to develop a scandi high around 114 hours but then collapses!!huge 12z runs this evening!!

Some posters have been urging caution about believing the colder and snowier options thrown up by some models because the teleconnections did not support proper Greenland Heights for tomorrows Northerly and next weeks one.

However, the teleconnections are looking more favourable around mid month for a Scandi High, and I hope to see more evidence for this in the ECM output.

[Seasonality]

ECM vs GFS

[Luke Attwood]

This 6z is real terrible run even into fI, there's is way to much energy going over the top stopping pressure to rise.looks like the Atlantic has woken up really but let's hope its wrong! You have to ask yourself are the models good enough why don't they ever agree with each other! It really frustrates me I think they should just stick to 4 or 5 days ahead that way they are more likely correct! It really does frustrate me.so from what looked like a nailed on cold spell a couple of days ago has now all but vanished back to mild,I find it rather frustrating really.

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Considering that no really cold evolution has been shown within T144, not really a surprise there. 

i would still caution against the day 6 ukmo as being any more reliable than the other output and my checking back over the past few hours reveals the ecm op to be the most reliable view for days 6/7.  There was one run which went awry.

The 06z gfs is at one end of the envelope for next weekend.

i can bet a bottom dollar the ukmo wipes the floor with all other models.

ive been here years and its a cert the long range models are pretty poor but the overall problem is strong vortex west qbo la nina atmospheric coupling big big battle to win against.

although that said its still not zonal yet but slowly could be heading that way.

so the agreement set by the master model ukmo would be pretty close to how the met office our calling it.

so heights over the uk down into france and south mid month heights sink south with more unsettled but cool to cold at times with flow anywhere from the west nw perhaps fleeting northerly.

and yes i agree moutain shadow i think thats what really looks likely now. 

[BM4PM]

Next weekend is far from resolved with the ecm still showing a northerly of sorts. Will be interesting to see if the the gfs op has the backing of is its ensembles (highly unlikely) as this would give us more confidence that the op has the correct solution.

At the moment as long as the met outlook is still forcasting a n/easterly I'm still hopefully.  All to play for in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by BM4PM

[IDO]

On this run D10-16 the PV sets up in its UK winter killer position:

That really has not been on the cards this Winter yet, hopefully just lack of data or just the usual 06z low res crud.

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it's probably a safe bet to say that this op will sit on the mild side off the ensembles. 

Unless a new signal has been picked up six hours on, it looks a bit out of kilter with the 00Z ECM. Mean has good agreement with the deterministic (hatched lines) at 156 hours.

Both options are cold so nothing to be gleaned from Tweets stating "colder next weekend" - the saga will run a bit yet - in the meantime, have a good evening of festivities and apart from the heads it might all be clearer tomorrow.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Luke Attwood said:

This 6z is real terrible run even into fI, there's is way to much energy going over the top stopping pressure to rise.looks like the Atlantic has woken up really but let's hope its wrong! You have to ask yourself are the models good enough why don't they ever agree with each other! It really frustrates me I think they should just stick to 4 or 5 days ahead that way they are more likely correct! It really does frustrate me.so from what looked like a nailed on cold spell a couple of days ago has now all but vanished back to mild,I find it rather frustrating really.

The 300+ easterly has vanished in this run!

The 6z is not in the NYE party mood it seems.

[Scandinavian High.]

If meto don't back down with there north easterly next weekend and wintery outlook we could see change later on 12z 

[chris55]

6z has got to be a mild outlier. When set against the 00z ens it's looking like pretty much the mildest run of the lot.

of course we could see a sudden flip in the 06z suit but let's wait and see where it sits.

[stainesbloke]

Just now, karyo said:

The 300+ easterly has vanished in this run!

The 6z is not in the NYE party mood it seems.

The 300+ easterly has vanished, well no surprises there, anything at that time frame shouldn't be taken seriously.