Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[nick sussex]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Well I must admit, I was not expecting that from the ecm, no way. 

very naughty!

If we're to embark on yet another  easterly drama then it better had deliver this time. I don't think members are in any mood for another let down. There may well be riots outside of ECM central! lol

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well I must admit, I was not expecting that from the ecm, no way. 

very naughty! 

I'll hazzard a guess that it sits towards the cold end of the ensembles though 

i gues Debilt ensembles I'll reveal more than the London ensembles. 

It would be nice to see the debilt ens falling sharply at days 11 to 15

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If we're to embark on yet another  easterly drama then it better had deliver this time. I don't think members are in any mood for another let down. There may well be riots outside of ECM central! lol

Going by the fact that I don't think I've ever seen a D10 chart verify, let alone a D10 easterly, I'm not buying it. Nice to see though and will go some way to lighten the mood, even if it is gone by tomorrow.

Edited January 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[chris55]

If we could squeeze out a cold pattern from what looked like a clear zonal trend in the mid term then that's a real bonus, especially taking into account the potential SSW as we move towards the end of the month. Could we see a back loaded winter instead of a front loaded one? You never know! Obviously one ECM op does not instil any confidence but its no doubt upped the anti a tad  

[snowice]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't know why but I feel ecm has got the right idea this time. In fact I actually think there will be upgrades to the scandi high in subsequent runs.

At least it should bring a bit  of life back to the thread, anything but the Zonal train

[karlos1983]

Just now, chris55 said:

If we could squeeze out a cold pattern from what looked like a clear zonal trend in the mid term then that's a real bonus, especially taking into account the potential SSW as we move towards the end of the month. Could we see a back loaded winter instead of a front loaded one? You never know! Obviously one ECM op does not instil any confidence but its no doubt upped the anti a tad  

At least if the EC monthly and Meto have got the "mild spell" wrong, it would be very consistent in terms of our winter of wild cards lol. It would be ironic that our first forecast mild spell turns out to be freezing 

[Zakos]

Its not a day 10 fantasy tease though.

At 192 The ECM is far better than GFS,and clearly indicates heights rises to the North East.

The GFS is terrible at modelling the removal of entrenched cold air

A look at the last 4 runs for the 25th clearly shows this, it did exactly the same during the last cold spell.

yesterdays 18z had the warm front edging into poland, now the GFS has freezing air over all of England and Wales.....

ECM is on the money, cold air will not be removed swiftly, and there are tentative sings of height rises to the NE... this is still too far out to get excited about granted.

 

Edited January 17, 2017 by Zakos

[blizzard81]

Just now, snowice said:

At least it should bring a bit  of life back to the thread, anything but the Zonal train

I think what makes that run so sweet is not only the day 9 and 10 charts. It is the fact that it has totally banished the awful southwesterly train during the preceding days.

[Polar Maritime]

Please use the banter/moan and Winter threads for anything other than sensible 'Model Output Discussion'.

Thanks please continue.

[Purga]

Having decided to take a break from the models since all the pundits were predicting 'nailed on' zonality,

Thought I'd take a casual look and I was surprised to see ECM!:

Just goes to show what microscopic changes on the global scale can mean to our tiny part of the world.

The overall synoptic pattern is pretty much the same as the mild roaring SW'lys as well predicted by the NWP but with a small shift that could make a huge difference to us.

Having said that it will, of course, be much different on the following runs. My ray of hope is the METO extended outlook today where they talk of high pressure becoming a significant factor later on for our domain albeit with low confidence.

 

 

Edited January 17, 2017 by Purga

[Seasonality]

32 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't know why but I feel ecm has got the right idea this time. In fact I actually think there will be upgrades to the scandi high in subsequent runs.

Kudos to you if so. Something you've hinted at in previous posts.

[Seasonality]

Delete

Edited January 17, 2017 by Seasonality

[Zakos]

The last six runs for the 24th from the GFS.

If thats not a trend away from zonality, and  towards the cold air remaining entrenched over Europe, then I dont know what is.

No prizes for guessing which direction the 18z is heading lol.

Edited January 17, 2017 by Zakos

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

The last six runs for the 24th from the GFS.

If thats not a trend away from zonality, and  towards the cold air remaining entrenched over Europe, then I dont know what is.

No prizes for guessing which direction the 18z is heading lol.

If it carries on that path we will have a scandicelic high 

nice trend.

Edited January 17, 2017 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Kudos to you if so. Something you've hinted at in previous posts.

Thank you Indeed, some recent ecm runs have had slight hints of pressure rises to our North East.  However, tonight's run has upgraded it significantly. Nothing to say this can't be upgraded further in future runs. We are overdue some upgrades this winter. 

[Zakos]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If it carries on that path we will have  scandicelic high 

nice trend.

indeed, very nice trend!

A complete reversal from the GFS if you compare today's chart to the forecast yesterday morning, very poor from the GFS.

ECM ( if this verifies) was far closer to the money.

GFS defaults to climatology far too often IMO.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2017 by Zakos

[ANYWEATHER]

The day ten on ecm shows a big stand off between the Atlantic and the Continental feel of Easterly winds, Gfs shows the Atlantic coming in....not sure really which model is right, but how many times have we seen potent winter charts from the east? Personally Im taking the Gfs version  a reload of north to north westerlys   But I may be completely wrong but certainly interesting viewing as I mentioned yesterday...

[Ali1977]

I think we are way off thinking an Easterly could happen, but there isn't a better time for one than after Europe has been in the freezer , with widespread snow cover - Siberian winds wouldn't get much chance to warm up over that!!

Edited January 17, 2017 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

The eps are broadly following the op (given there are 51 of them) in the 7/9 day timeframe which is significant imo 

i'll edit this to

there must be decent ens support for the op run, given the mean/anomolies in the 7/9 day timeframe 

Edited January 17, 2017 by bluearmy

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Having seen the latest re-ramp of the next potential easterly, I'm hardly surprised. We are currently in what I can only describe as an odd sort of pattern at the moment! 70 miles to the Northwest of me, it's like 7-8 degrees and just a stones throw to the south and east, it's bitterly cold. 

I was hardly expecting the flip around to mild weather in an instant as per what the outputs have been showing over the last few days. They look to now be changing their tune somewhat. 

[karlos1983]

What zonal train 

potential 

[bluearmy]

Oh and the control is even more of an easterly with scandi high than the op

has undercut from the Atlantic which looks just about feasible based on the anomolies 

Expect de bolt to be cold and then frigid later on the control 

 

[Seasonality]

Ensembles further east have been mentioned. Even the more progressive gfs shows a marked cool down in the ensembles from today's 12z compared to previous days.

[mulzy]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are broadly following the op (given there are 51 of them) in the 7/9 day timeframe which is significant imo 

i'll edit this to

there must be decent ens support for the op run, given the mean/anomolies in the 7/9 day timeframe 

Indeed BA - the ensemble mean is not as sharp as the operational as one would expect - probably some of the ensemble suite following the UKMO solution.  The control is very similar to the operational and delivers an easterly/south-easterly at days 10/11 with -10 uppers!

Edited January 17, 2017 by mulzy

[Ali1977]

I wonder what has caused the marked change on the ECM, lets hope it doesn't flip back. Interesting to see if the pub run sees anything towards this.