Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[phil nw.]

The second week of January is looking quite cold on the London ensemble graph

We can see that this stems from the further Atlantic ridging next week end which looks likely to develop another northerly.

ECM mean day7

 

What follows after remains open with options from an an Easterly to  a UK high.

We are still waiting for solid signs of a snowy/north easterly/easterly to establish but never say never in this pattern.For the moment  a blocked Atlantic still seems the ongoing theme with continuing bouts of amplification of the jet  and a good build up bitter cold over much of Europe.The question is can we improve on this cold but essentially quite dry outlook,apart from these glancing northerlies.

[Frosty.]

An increasingly wintry looking GEFS 6z mean for the second half of next week, and that follows the short but sweet Northerly on sun / Mon!..looking good!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the ECMWF - GFS - CMC 168 hour to 240 hour 500mb height means below and they generally keep the UK cool or cold with blocking in the mid Atlantic and some troughing to our East over the continent allowing a chilly flow between the North-West and North. The CMC (far right in image) the least favourable for possible cold and wintry conditions as it generally keeps the High in the Atlantic a little flatter and looks as though it would get knocked directly over the UK. It's the least deep with the European troughing and seemingly the 'driest' of the 3. Either way, they all paint a chilly picture and nothing particularly mild looks likely at present. 

Pretty much along the same lines as the main operational models at that time frame with their renewed amplification in the Atlantic beyond 144 hours. Would probably still need to watch out that Lows coming of Canada don't try to posses evil powers by quickly running over the top of the likely Atlantic ridge and flatten the pattern out somewhat and/or force the High Pressure South-East over Southern UK just like on the GEM run. Though I suppose as longs as low heights can be maintained to our South or East, hopefully their won't be much in the way of High Pressure sinking over us. Do possibly feel some of the likely solutions at the moment is to either see some kind of Mid-Latitude-Block over/around the UK, or seeing the Atlantic high getting drawn North-East over Scandinavia, or somewhere to our North. The ultimate dream for many of the snow weather enthusiasts I'd image. It's kinda a shame about that UKMO run really as I admit I'm not sure whether it would lead to anything more favourable for cold and snowy conditions further down the line or not. Still generally a chilly run, though.

Before then, there is the possibility to see some wintry weather via possible North-Westerly/Northerly air streams later this weekend and into next week. Also a fair amount of dry, frosty weather too.

I think while waiting for future runs to roll out, it might be a good idea to come here to get your supplies:

And if you fancied, maybe you could come and work there.  

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting some typos

[Summer Sun]

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looking at the ECMWF - GFS - CMC 168 hour to 240 hour 500mb height means below and they generally keep the UK cool or cold with blocking in the mid Atlantic and some troughing 

Pretty much along the same lines as the main operational models at that time frame with their renewed amplification in the Atlantic beyond 144 hours. 

Er that's because they are the operationals days 6/10 !

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

I've been checking back through the CET since 1679 and can't find any that have had a bitterly cold Jan after a mild December, We will have to set a new trend if we want to see a cold Jan!

But have you factored in the well below average November? 1C below average. If we're looking for patterns then it was a very blocked month and that, I think, may, repeat may, have presaged the current synoptics.

[BlueHedgehog074]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Er that's because they are the operationals days 6/10 !

Ah okay, fair enough!  (Suppose I should have been a bit more careful there)

[johnholmes]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Er that's because they are the operationals days 6/10 !

Not the total story ba as you know. These have been less consistent (the anomaly charts) than their NOAA equivalent, it has shown the cold spell about to start consistently about 4-5 days ago, see a post I did at the time. NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 has also been consistent in showing a fairly marked meridional flow, not something the synoptic models have consistently (note the word) over the same time period. Well not judging by the antics of some in here.

Not a dig anyone just a statement of what the anomaly charts have shown, NOAA at any rate for anout a week.

[Paul]

Just to clarify, as I think sometimes people are unclear what ought to go into the ramps/moans thread...

If your post is something along the lines of:

Quote

I hope the models show/don't show [insert weather type or setup here]
I really want some [insert weather type here]
This model run was [rubbish/good/awesome]

Then it needs to go into the model ramps thread. 

Also, if your post contains or starts with anything along the lines of 

Quote

I know this is off topic but......

Then please don't post it, particularly since what those words may as well amount to is:

Quote

I know this is off topic and may disrupt the thread, and I know I could post it elsewhere where it would be more relevant, but I don't care so I'm posting it anyway!

Which I'm sure most people don't really want to be saying..

In short, what it boils down to is that this is the model thread, so if you're discussing the model output, it's fine. If you're not, or are simply reacting emotionally, sharing your wishes, your moans or whatever else, then please don't post in here. 

We are having to take action on repeat offenders who just won't heed this advice, and nobody wants that to happen but with it likely to become very busy in here during the coming days, we're all going to need to work together to keep it running smoothly.

So please consider what you're posting where, and also please use the report system whenever you see a post which you think is off topic or out of line, it's a massive help to the team and the whole community when you do.

Thank you.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Paul

[Day 10]

Are we all strapped in ready for the next roller coaster?

First stop GFS

Second stop UKMO

Third and last stop ECM

Will we be all left feeling sick vowing never to go again or will we be jumping up and down and wanting to go back on?

Let's find out...

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not the total story ba as you know. These have been less consistent (the anomaly charts) than their NOAA equivalent, it has shown the cold spell about to start consistently about 4-5 days ago, see a post I did at the time. NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 has also been consistent in showing a fairly marked meridional flow, not something the synoptic models have consistently (note the word) over the same time period. Well not judging by the antics of some in here.

Not a dig anyone just a statement of what the anomaly charts have shown, NOAA at any rate for anout a week.

John, they are the mean of days 6/10 on the ops so of course they will look like the op run? That's what I was pointing out to DRL. 

The 6/10 and 8/14 NOAA CPC are different in that they are generally derived from ens means/anomolies  blended together as the forecaster deems fit 

[Eskimo]

Much deeper cut off low, can't remember now if that's better. Stops the high sinking?

[IDO]

Different again with the Azores trough and energy from the heights; a move towards the UKMO 0z run:

Edited December 30, 2016 by IDO

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Different again with the Azores trough and energy from the heights; a move towards the UKMO 0z run:

You're right, this looks dicey

Just watch the UKMO go towards the earlier GFS solution though...

[Banbury]

UKMO at 96

[terrier]

Looks to my untrained eye that the gfs is moving towards the ukmo. Wouldnt surprise me if ukmo went towards gfs shortly. 

[Iceberg]

Gfs is nothing like the 00 meto at t96. 

A few more frames needed to draw any firm conclusions

[Fozfoster]

9 minutes ago, terrier said:

Looks to my untrained eye that the gfs is moving towards the ukmo. Wouldnt surprise me if ukmo went towards gfs shortly. 

 

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You're right, this looks dicey

Just watch the UKMO go towards the earlier GFS solution though...

SNAP...............bye off to pub.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Fozfoster
Drinks

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Looks to my untrained eye that the gfs is moving towards the ukmo. Wouldnt surprise me if ukmo went towards gfs shortly. 

Blast of WAA about to head towards west Greenland should keep the GFS on track and much better than the earlier UKMO

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Looks to my untrained eye that the gfs is moving towards the ukmo. Wouldnt surprise me if ukmo went towards gfs shortly. 

Personally I think they are like for like......................which is what your saying ????

[Mucka]

I keep saying it is not the pattern upstream that is the issue with UKMO, it is ho it handles the closed low to our South. So long as that does not move North up the Western flank of our ridge and phase with the trough we will at least get the second Northerly, upstream will just dictate how amplified.

Here is GFS with that low further West and deeper than previous runs and moving it up the Western flank - iif this happens it then becomes a race to close it off with the ridge building toward Greenland. If it gets closed off we are good, if it breaks through then we have UKMO type scenario.

Ideally we want that low to push East and exit on East flank of the ridge and phase with Euro trough or just stay trapped and phase later once the Atlantic ridge is in place.

 

126 flirting with a UKMO type solution but may just close the low off.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep a definite shift towards the UKMO of the past few runs. 

It has all gone a bit Pete Tong at 126 hours with that ridge (rather than retrogressing out west of us) slips back S through the UK

[Banbury]

HP sinking on the GFS what this means later on who knows ?

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep a definite shift towards the UKMO of the past few runs. 

It has all gone a bit Pete Tong at 126 hours with that ridge (rather than retrogressing out west of us) slips back S through the UK

But you cant say its gone wrong until the full set is out LOL.....................this could be COMPLETELY on its own in the ENS .................patience is needed to evaluate the whole of the 12z

[Eskimo]

Maybe something even better springing up. Is that a scandy high developing?