Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[warrenb]

UKMet not updated on WZ yet. Notice ealier forecasts on BBC went for 10 in London Sunday, now going for 8

[nick sussex]

Annoying GFS so far, starts off better but the high can't get north because of all that energy running over the top, until that clears out of the way later the high is trapped.

[warrenb]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Annoying GFS so far, starts off better but the high can't get north because of all that energy running over the top, until that clears out of the way later the high is trapped.

Always hope where shortwaves are involved.

[warrenb]

6 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

So yet another southward correction on this run, color me surprised.

Not worried, appears to be a shortwave under the main low stopping the high, the problem is also the trough has dug to far south. So no support from underneath

 

At 126 we are all mild

Edited January 13, 2017 by warrenb

[Man With Beard]

Can the easterly really recover from this?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Always hope where shortwaves are involved.

The models all do this, run shortwave energy from the mid Atlantic north then east and the PV also bulges se towards Scandi so two irritations. Normally in Scandi high set ups you get a simple jet arc ne'wards then back sw'wards towards the UK, here its not that straightforward.

[TSNWK]

Not a chance! focus on the next phase and see if we can a greeny from next weekend.

 

[warrenb]

The funny thing is there is about 150 miles in it.

At 136 there ate 9 shortwaves on the map. We do finally get the wind into the east but no cold uppers.

Edited January 13, 2017 by warrenb

[bluearmy]

Continuity between yesterday day 5 and today's day 4 re the position of the ridge is excellent on UKMO - this apparent because of the absence of the 00z run day 5 on meteociel 

Given the ec and gfs have been moving around on this, I'm content to take UKMO as being the likely solution for days 5 and 6 (when they finally appear!)

 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z..

Showing 'yet' another twist...there's an overall expansion of hp' overall with the already set cold core even further south..yet a slightly better push northwards. ...

Think uk was at back of the cue when luck is involved! 

However yet another tweak...

[igloo]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Can the easterly really recover from this?

no chance with al the energy going over the top its a sinker for sure take a look at greenland nothing but deep purple sadly another missed opportunity  sadly we are back to square one once again looking at 10 day charts

Edited January 13, 2017 by igloo

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 12z..

Showing 'yet' another twist...there's an overall expansion of hp' overall with the already set cold core even further south..yet a slightly better push northwards. ...

Think uk was at back of the cue when luck is involved! 

However yet another tweak...

Problem is the high is now sinking to the east - will soon be a SEly feed and no way back for the uppers. Too much going over the top

[warrenb]

At 156 I think it is going NW with the high again. Good signs. Shame about the initial missed cold, but to be honest there wasn't a lot to tap in to anyway (On this run).

 

I prefer the WZ view than Metociel

 

 

[MKN]

The UKMO looks as though the high over us wants to head towards greenland with the low pressure sliding underneath

[chionomaniac]

We should be looking west now, not east. That is where the reload is going to come from. And I agree with GP, that could lead to a better easterly down the line. 

Edited January 13, 2017 by chionomaniac

[A Frayed Knot]

[Day 10]

This looks ok

[nick sussex]

If you're trying to take a positive from the easterly debacle because the high is further south the cold air to the ne is also further south associated with the PV , so if you get the favourable high to the nw that could help.

Unfortunately the GFS isn't developing as the 06hrs run and the UKMO at T144hrs isn't as good upstream. Disappointing output from the UKMO which after the ECM leading the way seems to have called the high more accurately.

 

Edited January 13, 2017 by nick sussex

[Snowman.]

There was an attempt

But that lobe over Greenland can't be described because of the swear filter.

[Ravelin]

9 minutes ago, igloo said:

no chance with al the energy going over the top its a sinker for sure take a look at greenland nothing but deep purple sadly another missed opportunity  sadly we are back to square one once again looking at 10 day charts

 

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Problem is the high is now sinking to the east - will soon be a SEly feed and no way back for the uppers. Too much going over the top

Sometimes it pays just to wait an extra few minutes to see how a run develops. At t192 it's hardly exciting stuff but neither has the high really sunk, nor does it bring a SE feed.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show things settling down next week temps likely to be dropping back after a mild start

[nick sussex]

The irony here is that the signal for retrogression with the PV moving further east to the north has undone the easterly and unless you get the full retrogression you end up with two middle ground solutions. Poor timing and yet more bad luck!

[Anon90]

7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

There was an attempt

But that lobe over Greenland can't be described because of the swear filter.

To honest it looks like a step towards the West based -NAO scenario which has been mooted, and maybe not even perhaps just a sinking of the high followed by Atlantic domination.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Anon90

[Man With Beard]

Anything possible from here really

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The irony here is that the signal for retrogression with the PV moving further east to the north has undone the easterly and unless you get the full retrogression you end up with two middle ground solutions. Poor timing and yet more bad luck!

Yes was just thinking that Nick.We are seeing the pattern retrogressing as we would want but about 10 degrees latitude too far south to get an easterly then a northerly.