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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
    1 minute ago, John Hodgson said:

    We're getting spoilt now that's why. I'm remaining optimistic, the models continue to show weather unlike anything in the past few years. Fascinating times ahead. 

    How are we getting spoilt??...the models have admittedly shown promise....and continue to do so....however ...anything worthy of note has failed to verify....and no doubt will always be 7 to 10 days 'away'....still, makes good viewing, albeit frustrating and disappointing!!...keep up the good work peeps ..lovin' this site !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
    7 minutes ago, K9 said:

    How are we getting spoilt??...the models have admittedly shown promise....and continue to do so....however ...anything worthy of note has failed to verify....and no doubt will always be 7 to 10 days 'away'....still, makes good viewing, albeit frustrating and disappointing!!...keep up the good work peeps ..lovin' this site !!!

    Compared to the dreary muck the last few winters, these charts are indeed 'spoiling' us. :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    48 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

     The potential northerly advertised by week 2 GS and EC ops, just a case of wait and see on that one as its not fitting any GWO / tropical influence and must entirely by largely atmosphere driven- which is notoriously difficult to get a handle on.

    What do you mean by atmosphere driven GP?, do you mean Stratosphere?, I would have thought everything was driven by the atmosphere?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    An example of how any scatter in upper air temperature probably won't affect surface level temperatures next week

    graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif  graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

    Looks like a good 10 days before a reasonable chance of a warm up in London

    Takes a bit longer for northern areas to go cold but the same end result - this is near Glasgow

    graphe3_1000___-4.24528301887_56.0728744  graphe6_1000___-4.24528301887_56.0728744

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    What do you mean by atmosphere driven GP?, do you mean Stratosphere?, I would have thought everything was driven by the atmosphere?

    I expect he means it doesn't fit the analogues for the teleconnections

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Having just seen the GFS 06hrs run I'm wondering whether we could avoid any Atlantic guff if the negative NAO sets up so far west that we get an amplified trough in the Atlantic and ridge to the east/ne.

    The models seem consistent with the main blocking being towards Canada and so a halfway house could leave us in a less palatable set up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    For general chit/chat moans/ramps please use the correct thread. Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Just having a look through some archives, as you do ;)

    Anyone saying the GFS 06Z is a waste of time needs to check these D12 and D16 charts from New Year's Day out:

    gfs-0-276.png?6  

    gfs-2-264.png?6 

    and then

    gfs-0-384.png?6

    Now that's awesome!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    38 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    Can ask a question where do you see spell of zonal weather because going what I can see within the models no zonal for next two weeks or so or am I missing something.

    the extended ens are all trending (consistently) to high euro height anomaly and low atlantic. there is margin for error and we don't see the eps clusters but ian tweeted yesterday evening in the direction of sw flow so that backs it up

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'm guessing, but I think that the analogues merely predispose certain types of overall hemispheric patterns? But, as with all cases of predisposition there are other factors, 'contraindications' that suggest a million and one other possibilities? For want of a better analogy, not everyone who's predisposed to contracting lung cancer does so...:cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    Just having a look through some archives, as you do ;)

    Anyone saying the GFS 06Z is a waste of time needs to check these D12 and D16 charts from New Year's Day out:

    gfs-0-276.png?6  gfs-0-384.png?6

    gfs-2-264.png?6 

    and then

    gfs-0-384.png?6

    Now that's awesome!

    good point MWB - what about the week the week that followed when it didn't show the MLB !

    however, I agree that no particular gfs op run should be given any more credence than another

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    So looking at the below chart am I right in thinking the Darker purples mean better agreement whilst the lighter colors south of Iceland mean uncertainty?

    gens-22-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

    So looking at the below chart am I right in thinking the Darker purples mean better agreement whilst the lighter colors south of Iceland mean uncertainty?

    gens-22-1-144.png

    Yes and the bigger spread below Iceland is the low i think we are pretty much nailed on what to expect out to 144hr, the spread for the low will be how intense it will be thats the reason for the spread in that area.

    gfs-0-144 (2).png

    gens-21-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    the extended ens are all trending (consistently) to high euro height anomaly and low atlantic. there is margin for error and we don't see the eps clusters but ian tweeted yesterday evening in the direction of sw flow so that backs it up

    The above does not really fir the anomaly charts I use? They have been quite good over the past few weeks, for the most part anyway, predicting the cold spell, the movement of the ridge, briefly, east of the UK and now their suggestion of upper ridging expected to be NW/WNW of the UK. Be interesting to see if this does occur in the next 6-10 days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    It seems modeling is settling for a UK high extending east by day 4 rather than one a little further north that was hoped giving us a cold easterly.

    ECM1-96.GIF?13-12gfs-0-96.png?6

    The ridging does bring us a bit of a warm up with some rain on Sun/Mon before we cool off again and it dries out.

    The 00z ensemble graph for London showing the milder spell before the continental cold seeps back in around day 4.Looking quite dry for next week again after the weekend rain.

    ensemble-tt6-london.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

    suspect temperatures will be a little higher further north west as we are now relying on surface cooling rather than any easterly with the block now looking to be over the south and and across the continent around 50N.This leaves the far north west corner open to those south westerlies.

    Week 2 does look different in so much that we lose our high as heights re-appear much further west over Canada leaving the Uk open to some influence from the Atlantic.Looking at the gef clusters from the 00z and 06z runs the transition seems underway by day 12 as the heights over the continent sink as an Atlantic trough shows it's hand out west.

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=cslp&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201701130600%26HH%3D318

    gefs 06zmean anomalies

    gensnh-21-5-312.png

    Currently a large majority go for this trend with just a small cluster preferring a Scandi trough dropping down to our east with some heights to our nw giving the uk another northerly.The latter signal would grow i suspect if we could achieve further amplification in week 2 than currently modeled.

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    Well going by that tweet we should now by 72hrs on ukmo if that wave develops.

    We will know soon enough as it must show in its 12z.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    46 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    The above does not really fir the anomaly charts I use? They have been quite good over the past few weeks, for the most part anyway, predicting the cold spell, the movement of the ridge, briefly, east of the UK and now their suggestion of upper ridging expected to be NW/WNW of the UK. Be interesting to see if this does occur in the next 6-10 days?

     Days 12-16 John so probably won't be showing strongly on the 8/14 mean as yet 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS 12hrs run at T60hrs is already better than the earlier 06hrs with the PV further nw and the pattern over the UK with a slight westwards correction.

    The irritation in recent days is those lows pressures running over the block, we could do with these being corrected further nw to put less pressure on the high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Is anyone else's UKMO stuck on Oz 96? It's been like that all day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
    3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    Is anyone else's UKMO stuck on Oz 96? It's been like that all day.

    It's a poor UKMO 120 & 144 chart, with the HP not very far North and very much centered over UK :-(

    UN120-21.gif

    UN144-21.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    1 minute ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

    It's a poor UKMO 120 & 144 chart, with the HP not very far North and very much centered over UK :-(

    Ok thanks, don't know what's up with my charts then, refreshed the cache and it's still stuck :cc_confused:

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    3 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

    It's a poor UKMO 120 & 144 chart, with the HP not very far North and very much centered over UK :-(

    UN120-21.gif

    UN144-21.GIF

    Are these yesterdays 12z??

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    ALL_emean_phase_full.gif olr.notc.all.global.7.png
    As maligned as this plot is these days, it can still be used to make a quick point; the mean MJO signal has been observed further toward the W Pacific than the models had it in yesterday's runs, though ECM came pretty close. So I'd not be surprised to see something close to the circle edges through 6-7-8 on the plot, with this representing enough of a W-C Pacific component to the forcing from Pacific MJO/Kelvin activity (as seen in the projections in the right-hand image) to help get an upper ridge in place to our NW prior to the attempted setting up of a west-based negative NAO pattern. I concur that we could see an interesting battleground for a time followed by wild swings one way then the other in temperature in the final week or so and into February.

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