Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

that upper disturbance around T168 becoming more than a hint which is odd at a range of 7 days

Will you explain please? I dont know what you are referring to. Ta

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GFS...too far south

 

12Z UKMO is flatter again

 

 

 

The good thing is I can't see it staying slap over us.We're in good order

 

[radiohead]

Certainly not a warm run...even if it hasn't been terribly exciting from a snow potential perspective up to this point.

[bradymk]

Very similar pattern to the 6z overall. Although the high to our east slightly further south which means the coldest uppers go to our south and then the winds ending up more south easterly later as the high sinks slightly. But overall very similar.

this chart for next Saturday very cold. Even developing our own cold pool.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Will you explain please? I dont know what you are referring to. Ta

look at the kink in the flow T162/T174 on GFS 

[legritter]

SAfternoon ,looking forward to this evenings runs of the models with hopefully a continuation of a promise of an easterly ,let's hopefully get some cold in from the east first and if the dice falls right some snow to follow ,we are gang at a good position on Jan 12th ,and of course we do have a current wintry blast so we all should be happy , this is what we all wanted ,so STELLAS all round ,catch you up later 

[Mucka]

Zero chance of an Easterly if UKMO is correct.

Models all over the place so wouldn't be surprised to see ECM stick to its guns.

[Ravelin]

I think it's relatively safe to say that at this stage it's looking like we'll transition to high pressure over or close to the UK, then into some sort of 'no mans land' slack pattern as the bulk of the polar vortex heads to our NE. Given the slack pattern I expect the models to struggle with detail.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Ravelin

[Summer Sun]

Close but no cigar on this run though the SE does get the lowest temps

UKMO looks too far south for the cold as well

Let's see what ECM brings later on

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

The Easterly continues to show, Only macro detail changing as expected on each run. Cold with overnight frosts especially for the South with snow showers blowing in from the S/E.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Will you explain please? I dont know what you are referring to. Ta

Think its a disturbance in the Easterly flow heading for Southern parts as it stands

[phil nw.]

Not the trend we want if we are to see anything snowy develop later on in this pattern.Like other posters have said the high being held around our latitude would still give us a cold spell with widespread frost but essentially dry.

A look at day 5 on the 2 runs

very similar with the Atlantic hitting the block and then deciding to send a little more energy around the top hindering any further northward attempt by the high.

This is far enough away for changes yet but the general pattern of a stubborn cold block remains.I think most of us have already agreed that although it would be cold it would start off as quite a dry period but we do need to see some northward movement of the high in the next few days to make things more interesting later on.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

The good thing is I can't see it staying slap over us.We're in good order

 

Don't look at the 12Z GEM-

 

I like that the 12Z GFS does maintain the cold and there would be potential further down the line. Just a bit frustrating to see the high further south than we expected. Hopefully a good ECM later.

 

 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z maintaining the theme.

A few adjustment s but firmly expected. 

As for upper inbound/establishment it will wavert and vary going forward. ..another v-good run..in terms of cold .

[Summer Sun]

Lots of high pressure on this run from GEM so plenty of chances for frost and maybe some fog

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Make no bones about it, UKMO and GFS are poor for expectations.  No flowering them runs up.  Let's see and hope that ECM maintains the easterly.....I suspect not the way this winter is going.  Even this rain to errrr sleet event is underwhelming

 

BFTP

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Lots of high pressure on this run from GEM so plenty of chances for frost and maybe some fog

no thanks to the GEM HP sitting slam bang on top of us with +8 uppers thick cloud is the only thing we would get nothing else but as ever the GEMs major fault is the 850 uppers anyway so im not surprised we can only hope this evenings ECM has the HP further north and east

[Woldsedge]

Looks like the Easterly is nailed.........In France!

[Captain Shortwave]

18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Zero chance of an Easterly if UKMO is correct.

Models all over the place so wouldn't be surprised to see ECM stick to its guns.

Very fine line but the GFS would bring drier air in from the continent and eventually a rain to snow event moving westwards across the south of the UK. The UKMO, well that would be a horrible outcome as that high builds over the top of us after bringing cloudier and less cold air in from the Atlantic, the result would be a lot of dull and dry weather with frost limited to any clearer breaks. We need that continental flow at the very least.

The UKMO which is now followed by other models is continuing to blow up areas of low pressure on the southern flank of that Atlantic trough which is turn rebuilds the ridge neat the UK instead of allowing it to sheer away resulting in an easterly.

GEM/UKMO/GFS

      

The best outcome is for those secondary lows to move swiftly over the ridge as shallow waves, if they deeper, they push a broad area of warm air advection with them.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[bradymk]

JMA best so far this evening...

more amplified than GFS at 84 hours (rest of the run out later) 

[IDO]

The GFS 06z solution was one of the coldest runs within its suite so no shock the 12z is worse. Similar pattern though. Looking at the GEFS and most are better at D5 and that includes the Control: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

Early days on the easterly.

[johnholmes]

Take heart, cold lovers, about where the surface high may settle during next week.

The 3 anomaly charts, pretty similar to one another, all suggest the centre of gravity of the upper ridge and +ve anomalies will be such that a feed out of Europe is the most likely. Apart from perhaps the far NW on one of them.

[Polar Maritime]

Just a reminder that if it's a moan/chit chat please use the model moan/banter thread or posts will go missing.

Thanks please continue.

[Summer Sun]

Control and ENS colder than the Op at t144

[Wilxy]

12 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFS 06z solution was one of the coldest runs within its suite so no shock the 12z is worse. Similar pattern though. Looking at the GEFS and most are better at D5 and that includes the Control: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

Early days on the easterly.

Least they don't show the GEM soloution but what does the chart below show as i'm a novice to understanding what it means