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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Just now, Smiler1709 said:

Breakdown coming at 300+ but that's all pointless and will change, main theme being that we're going in the freezer and once it becomes established these can be very differcult to budge. Good run

Not that it will verify, but the breakdown lasts about a day before the much fabled northerly gets us (quickly pushed away though)

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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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Just now, John Badrick said:

Never trust an Easterly, espeacially when it's modelling a beaterly 

 

Well there's a lot of truth in that and many of us will remember the John Kettley incident.

However this one really does seem to have some plausibility. There's good model consensus and the ensembles are packing a cold punch. The issue I guess now is whether the high holds or slips south into northern Germany. The latter has to be the form horse, but here's hoping otherwise.

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Just now, tight isobar said:

John badrick...

We have nigh on cross model agreement on an easterly! .

Its just exactions of inflow/cold depth/precipitation. ...

Aside from that its a v-safe bet now. 

Until one breaks away at T96 or even less! seen it happen!

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Despite living on east coast Ireland and judging by these latest outputs, this 'beasterly' doesn't pack enough punch (in the semi reliable) to stretch across all the snowy goodness to my front door, so I'm not too excited by it, and I do actually expect changes, so who knows, but knowing my luck (no lying snow since 2010) it will downgrade! 

 

Still, great charts and much better model watching than last year or, last 6 years for that matter!!!

 

 

 

Edited by Rocheydub
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I've seen a cross model agreement on a easterly as close as 72h then one of the models have a complete flip and sent more energy over the top so its not a done deal! can't remember what year it was but wasn't that long ago couple of years!

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Well the 6z is a thing of beauty....will almost certainly be one of, if not, the coldest member of the 6z ensemble set. All this hinges of whether we can drag that finger of cold air our way, or if it gets broken off or sent further south. We could have bitter ice days with snow showers coming up, or just very cold instead. Either way, below average, and certainly not zonal!

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I've also aeen many 'an easterly disolve over the years.

However imo this is v-solid in output and taking in the northern hemispherical profile/quiet Atlantic/and evolution/evolution s..throughout raw output. ..this isn't a worry! !!!

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Can we leave emotions/moans out please, And use the Model bater/moan thread for chit chat and the likes.

Please continue discussing what the models are actually showing, Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm thinking that IF the 06Z is anywhere near to reality, any snow that falls (in central/eastern parts, anyway) between now and Sunday might still be around in ten days' time?

Yes Pete, With sub-zero ground temps model'd that's certainly a 'possibility'. If the 6z played out true.. 

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm thinking that IF the 06Z is anywhere near to reality, any snow that falls (in central/eastern parts, anyway) between now and Sunday might still be around in ten days' time?

Sunday could be the fly in the ointment here - slight milder section coming in, with some heavy rain too...temps 7-9c, so it could scupper that somewhat. If we didn't have this coming in then I'd say there could be snow lying around for a while! All to watch, this could be the crux of the winter coming right up. The coldest synoptics at the coldest part of winter - could be the perfect storm!

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