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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

That it is rather chilly in De Bilt in the Netherlands.

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2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

The surface temperature in de buit in The Netherlands using the ECM model and its Ensembles - temps never above freezing next week, UK not quite that cold though. The de bolt ENS come out before the UK ones so that's why they are sometimes posted as it gives an idea of the UK weather.

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

That it is rather chilly in De Bilt in the Netherlands.

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

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8 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

For me it shows that from Monday onwards the main cluster of ensembles starts to trend below zero Deg C. This could indicate a potential Easterly for the south of Englanshire. The easterly will drag across cold air from the eastern block across the north sea towards the south of the UK bringing with it those cold temps.

Edited by ghoneym
Detail

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Just now, Luke Attwood said:

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

It does if there is an incoming easterly as they will get it first but are close enough for it to be an interest to us.

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Would really help if the ukmo joins the party as you say @Steve Murr

The ecm has shown great consistency and now the gfs has smelt the coffee so would love ukmo to ease the worry.

 

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31 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

And after this afternoons run it should too.:wink:

pluim_06260_15D.png

YUP

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7 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

Fair shout ....

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The Debilt ensembles are only on 1 page.

Very cold or brutal cold... 

The GFS solution with a slack ESE brings the brutal cold with -15c dewpoints, The ECM is marginally warmer with perhaps the hint of more moisture

Can we firm up on the 18z, however more importantly can we swing the UKMO overnight...

S

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9 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

The ECM ens come out for De Bilt in Holland first but they give an idea of how things will be for the UK as it isn't that far away. De Bilt going well below freezing even by day for a time next week, the many parts of the UK will also be very cold under a slack easterly flow. It does appear that the models are supporting a rather sunny high so some very cold nights and perhaps a few scattered showers along eastern coasts and maybe channel coasts as well if we can get enough instability. 

London ens are released later but I suspect a lot of sub zero runs in the ECM set, even for London.

The mean rises as uncertainty rises as to how the pattern retrogrades at day 10 onwards.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Seems odd to be speaking about the extended when so much looks like happening before then but should be noted that thethree models settle on west based neg NAO which will drive a less cold solution by the end of week 2. Just got to hope that we can drag that solution east and make the low heights dropping south in our longitude arrive before the ones coming up from the sw and building some euro heights. 

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Tonight's ECM and GFS offerings are looking excellent for the here and now with snow possible almost anywhere around the UK in the next 48/72 hours.  Looking further on into the runs, both show incredible potential (sorry) for maybe even better down the line with blocking all over Scandi/Iceland/Greenland.  For the first time in a long time we could be on the cusp of a prolonged and notable spell of winter weather.

So many good charts but the 168 on ECM gets my vote. It would be feeling frigid in a stiff easterly breeze.

ECH1-168.gifECU0-168.gif 

Come on 18z, you know what we want!

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

thing is, the ecm is pretty consistent (infact maybe moreso with its 7/10 day output than its 4/7!)

and the picture it paints late on fits ok with the extended eps. the trough comes up from the sw and down from the n. how and where they meet a huge issue of course.

So far I like the FI signal within GFS and ECM for blocked Atlantic but think we have way to go before we can hope for a retrogressing high a la ECM.

It has been consistent though as you say so fingers crossed it doesn't back down tomorrow.

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Forgive me for what is probably a stupid question but i was under the impression  we were going to get the mild weather back in a few days .After reading the posts now am i right in thinking the cold is going to last longer ?

Edited by tlo

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2 minutes ago, tlo said:

Forgive me for what is probably a stupid question but i was under the impression it was not long ago we were going to get the mild weather back in a few days .After reading the posts now am i right in thinking the cold is going to last longer ?

At present it looks like the colder air to our East will, after a slight nudge Eastward, then push back West once more.:)

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3 minutes ago, tlo said:

Forgive me for what is probably a stupid question but i was under the impression it was not long ago we were going to get the mild weather back in a few days .After reading the posts now am i right in thinking the cold is going to last longer ?

Thurs-sat-cold

Sun-tue-milder

Wed+-cold

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9 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Thurs-sat-cold

Sun-tue-milder

Wed+-cold

Not if the ECM is correct, surface temps stay cold throughout 

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9 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Thurs-sat-cold

Sun-tue-milder

Wed+-cold

Milder or less cold?

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ECM holding with its easterly evolution, it has persistant in this regard, and lo and behold GFS has moved towards the ECM. UKMO also showing the ridge building to the east, with a slack continental flow invading southern parts at least early next week. A very topsy turvy few days ahead, the next three will be cold, milder Sunday - Tuesday, but becoming cold and dry again thereafter.

ECM suggesting retrogression of heights toward Greenland with low pressure building to the SW. A blocked atlantic indeed.

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18z down plays the potential eastern snow event Friday slightly with lighter and patcher precipitation, still time for upgrades/downgrades though

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Terrible downgrade for Friday morning snow event. 300 mile shift East, only the east coast seeing any meaningful ppn.

 

 

GFSOPEU18_36_4.png

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