Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[keithlucky]

Further forecast from Joe B major Arctic outbreak across Europe from the 6th to the 15thAnd then a further sustained cold spell.to continue. after.

Edited December 30, 2016 by keithlucky

[Summer Sun]

 

[Weather Boy]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I would say that on this occasion I am less worried by the ukmo output. From everything I'm reading from the pros, it doesn't have any support from the ens. So my head says it's possibly right, but not likely. 

Very much agreed.  And I also add that I agree with another poster who said that the UKMO performance has been poor lately.

I do however concur with Steve's point that the UKMO has been a successful party pooper previously (notably the easterly that never was in December 2012) previously and so anybody with any sense will want to see it give ground for us to be sure it is wrong.  After all, it has to do so eventually unless it is right.

[Ali1977]

About a page of people discussing the UKMO winning out - it only goes to 144 and to be honest looks like it could easily end up as good as the others. 

GLOSEA vs EC46 sound slightly at loggerheads with EC majority looking blocked but GLOSEA not. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather

@WerdnaKcep no difference. This occasion, UKMO model has been tweaked by f'casters towards a consensus of other models into mid nxt week...

I think that is the best we can hope cor at the moment in regard to UKMO concerns..

[snowbunting]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

What about the 2nd Nly? Tweaking implies the meto model might be struggling with what is a pretty complicated situation. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

About a page of people discussing the UKMO winning out - it only goes to 144 and to be honest looks like it could easily end up as good as the others. 

Last one from me, the ukmo 168 shows the Atlantic moving in.And further to fergies tweet, glosea offering mixed signals but does not offer majority support for an easterly!..

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather

@WerdnaKcep no difference. This occasion, UKMO model has been tweaked by f'casters towards a consensus of other models into mid nxt week...

I think that is the best we can hope cor at the moment in regard to UKMO concerns..

The fact that it has been tweaked shows a lack of confidence in the model...................I'd say

[Paul]

Please can those who just want to moan or worry or ramp up the models without any actual model based discussion around that, please head to the moans/ramps thread - it's what it's for.

We've already deleted some posts this morning, and there are a growing list of people who now have account restrictions for continuing to make off topic posts in here despite numerous public and private requests to stop, so please take a moment to consider where to post.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

If Ian F is saying that the UKMO output for around the 120 mark has been amended towards the other models I would hardly worry about its output further on!  Even if the UKMO does verify it keeps things very cold and crisp at the surface....lovely!

All in all lots of unnecessary hysteria over the UKMO this morning?!  

It's turning / staying cold and seasonal guys and gals.  There will be plenty of frost on offer and who knows some of us may even get some snow!

What it is not going to be over the next couple of weeks is mild and wet with winds from the SW so we should all be thankful for that!  

Edited December 30, 2016 by Kentish Snowman
Removed quote as that post was removed.

[bluearmy]

So we have to communicate with ian via tweets now which is bloody annoying. He is doing his best though for usI I expect he was very annoyed the other morning with what went on. 

anyway, the ukmo has promoted plenty of posts. if you check back to the ec ops from a couple days ago, you wil find this type solution. so it's bound to still feature in the eps members. (And it's quite a surprise it hasn't been an op since).  Anyway, those ec ops evolved towards the mid Atlantic ridge and with the day 6 chucking out a small cold high in scandi, I would say the model is trying to find the way forward. it's output at day 6 could well become part of the verified solution but it wouldn't be spot on and I believe we would still go into a cold pattern thereafter. 

The extended eps deserve another 'wow'. we now have 30% probability of -10c uppers into e anglia T300. Before that most of England is between 10/20% which is bonkers anyway at this range. the coldest anomoly having been directed to our se on the 12z, has, with the model responding to mucka's pleadings, shifted everything nw this morning and the cold comes nw with that movement. The control is on the same page as the mean/anomoly and I suspect will be pretty cold for de bilt. The London graph should be clustered colder in an hour. Good to see the eps trend back toward a less anticyclonic look for the uk with the blocking shifted nw. Ed mentioned yesterday a swathe from norway to Iceland as the potential resting place for the high - the 00z shifts probability towards Iceland (which incidentally  is where cpc stuck the anomoly yesterday).

anyway, GEM fairly unexciting, the 00z para undid the good work of the 18z version longer term and the ukmo is worrying folk. They're the only downsides I can find this morning.

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Last one from me, the ukmo 168 shows the Atlantic moving in.And further to fergies tweet, glosea offering mixed signals but does not offer majority support for an easterly!..

You expect an extended ensemble product to do that ??

[Summer Sun]

Little change from GFS out to t90

Steady as she goes so far

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So we have to communicate with ian via tweets now which is bloody annoying. He is doing his best though for usI I expect he was very annoyed the other morning with what went on. 

anyway, the ukmo has promoted plenty of posts. if you check back to the ec ops from a couple days ago, you wil find this type solution. so it's bound to still feature in the eps members. (And it's quite a surprise it hasn't been an op since).  Anyway, those ec ops evolved towards the mid Atlantic ridge and with the day 6 chucking out a small cold high in scandi, I would say the model is trying to find the way forward. it's output at day 6 could well become part of the verified solution but it wouldn't be spot on and I believe we would still go into a cold pattern thereafter. 

The extended eps deserve another 'wow'. we now have 30% probability of -10c uppers into e anglia T300. Before that most of England is between 10/20% which is bonkers anyway at this range. the coldest anomoly having been directed to our se on the 12z, has, with the model responding to mucka's pleadings, shifted everything nw this morning and the cold comes nw with that movement. The control is on the same page as the mean/anomoly and I suspect will be pretty cold for de bilt. The London graph should be clustered colder in an hour. Good to see the eps trend back toward a less anticyclonic look for the uk with the blocking shifted nw. Ed mentioned yesterday a swathe from norway to Iceland as the potential resting place for the high - the 00z shifts probability towards Iceland (which incidentally  is where cpc stuck the anomoly yesterday).

anyway, GEM fairly unexciting, the 00z para undid the good work of the 18z version longer term and the ukmo is worrying folk. They're the only downsides I can find this morning.

Just to throw  the GEM control in

[ribster]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Last one from me, the ukmo 168 shows the Atlantic moving in.And further to fergies tweet, glosea offering mixed signals but does not offer majority support for an easterly!..

Good lord, we haven't even got the Notherlies out of the way yet, never mind an Easterly in FI! And if they have had to 'tweak' their own model, as they know it is wrong in the short term, what hope do longer term tools have?!?

[IDO]

The good news is that the UKMO run will not be repeated on the GFS 6z; the bad news it is now similar to the worse cluster on the 0z GEFS:

The next wave of energy coming through the Azores, splitting the lower heights. There were 5 members and they were all very flat in FI on the 0z.

Hopefully other factors will stop that on this run? But IMO the worse possible development based on the 0z run.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Here's something that doesn't get posted very often. The GEM Control run.

 

At T+336 I'm not surprised ;-)

(Only teasing).

[Iceberg]

I am likely the gfs upto the sensible range more instability to push the high west for the northerly and energy clearly going under at this point. 

So happy with the gfs 06z regardless of what happens next 

[Cloud 10]

The NAVGEM is there if we need it.

 

[karlos1983]

GFS looks good to me, better ridge in the Atlantic and good pulse of WAA into Greenland 

[mulzy]

All FI of course but I'm loving the trough disruption to the west of Greenland at 156h from the 6z GFS

Edited December 30, 2016 by mulzy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Here's something that doesn't get posted very often. The GEM Control run.

 

Then best you post that more often  RH!!!!!  Beautiful and very accurate chart 

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

The good news is that the UKMO run will not be repeated on the GFS 6z; the bad news it is now similar to the worse cluster on the 0z GEFS:

The next wave of energy coming through the Azores, splitting the lower heights. There were 5 members and they were all very flat in FI on the 0z.

Hopefully other factors will stop that on this run? But IMO the worse possible development based on the 0z run.

Looks like those 'other factors' may have come into play! 

[Weathizard]

These differences between the UKM and GFS so early are stark... Both have been consistent so one will be left with egg on its face and it's tail firmly between its legs.

 

I really can't see both ECM and GFS both being wrong at such a short timeframe.

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Weathizard
Wrong charts! Apologies

[IDO]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like those 'other factors' may have come into play! 

Its not till D8-9 that they go belly up on those GEFS so a few more charts to go before we can sigh...