Jump to content

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


Recommended Posts

Exhausted catching up with all the pages of posts since lunchtime!   Lots of understandable excitement but good to see no mention of a particular word .....yet anyway!   OMeGa  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 7.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

Posted Images

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Well GFS is also consistent - jury still out

Downstream yes but its a bit more amplified over the ne Canada at T84hrs, the PV elongation and digging into the Atlantic should occur a bit further west here.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 13th not unlucky for some

69-780UK.GIF?10-18

For seeing snow falling things are certainly looking good but if that chart prooved correct the majority would be without any lying snow.  Of course the potential after that point is still there to help with that matter. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Oh god, im unprepared for anything like this.

gfs-2-48.png?18

 

Fingers crossed mate! The snow/rain line is going to change so much between now and then. Hoping for a few flakes, even though it won't settle. First flakes in around 4 years perhaps?!

Edited by Southender
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS still brings an area of rain, sleet and snow down the Eastern side of the country on Friday morning. Could be some nasty conditions considering the strength of the wind too. Very marginal for ppn type and the mild sector may keep it as rain near the East coast.

image.gif

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In your own time GFS, for heavens sake get on with it! zzzzzzzzz

This is really annoying and always leaves a worry that it may actually be correct

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In your own time GFS, for heavens sake get on with it! zzzzzzzzz

dont think its there tbh.looks like me after a night out,tired and flat nick!!.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

This still looks concerning for a North Sea storm surge on Friday - Spring tide between 4 and 7am down the east coast with sustained NNW at 40mph or higher close inshore - one to watch.

airpressure.png

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if it was storm named D, 4th one of season

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Hi res has it turning to snow ready and heavy to in places. 

IMG_0708.GIF

uksnowrisk T+45.png

22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z definitely upgrading back edge snowfall - It is the GFS though.

3.gif

uksnowrisk T+48.png

Context all important for those precipitation charts: snow risk mostly above 400 metres. GFS always secondary to hi-res models - the likes of Hirlam, NMM, Arpege and Euro4, so accuracy could be questioned at this range. However, I would still rather this system take a more southerly track into France as otherwise its primary achievement is to convert Day 1 of the cold spell into a rain day and to delay the arrival of Arctic air in the southern quadrant of the UK until Friday.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In your own time GFS, for heavens sake get on with it! zzzzzzzzz

Unbelievable mate isn't it. I reckon it will be summer by the time the GFS catches up with the EUROS!!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This is really annoying and always leaves a worry that it may actually be correct

Yes I know how you feel, generally in easterly disasters one model doesn't want to know at all, in this case the GFS sort of wants to know but is determined to be the centre of attention for a while yet. It may get there eventually but is dragging the drama out.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Southender said:

Fingers crossed mate! The snow/rain line is going to change so much between now and then. Hoping for a few flakes, even though it won't settle. First flakes in around 4 years perhaps?!

My mind draws me to the polar event, but that was gone by lunch.

60-779UK.GIF?10-18

GFS continues to show a band working south along the east coast. Hopefully we get lucky?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I know how you feel, generally in easterly disasters one model doesn't want to know at all, in this case the GFS sort of wants to know but is determined to be the centre of attention for a while yet. It may get there eventually but is dragging the drama out.

And now it has just given up - frozen at 162hrs lol

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I know how you feel, generally in easterly disasters one model doesn't want to know at all, in this case the GFS sort of wants to know but is determined to be the centre of attention for a while yet. It may get there eventually but is dragging the drama out.

They are not actually much apart. Just about 250 miles...... In terms of weather at that range that's nothing!!

Trouble is that experience tends to suggest with easterlies you get that small last minute adjustment south, which we can't afford on this occasion. Its interesting though that this run seems to hint at wanting to nudge everything a little north by 180. Maybe not a sinker?

Edited by Jason M
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...