Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Hegzyy]

anyone explain how the ARPEGE model shows mostly rain for N.ireland under -8/9 uppers, and snow for say south east england under much higher upper temps? euro4 showing snow at the same timeframe, which model is better? 

Thanks!

[loafer]

4 minutes ago, Hegzyy said:

anyone explain how the ARPEGE model shows mostly rain for N.ireland under -8/9 uppers, and snow for say south east england under much higher upper temps? euro4 showing snow at the same timeframe, which model is better? 

Thanks!

You might find this interesting;

 

[radiohead]

4 minutes ago, Hegzyy said:

anyone explain how the ARPEGE model shows mostly rain for N.ireland under -8/9 uppers, and snow for say south east england under much higher upper temps? euro4 showing snow at the same timeframe, which model is better? 

Thanks!

The upper air temps on the ARPEGE look broken to me. I'd ignore it.

[winterof79]

38 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely this is why the Met Office are not going for an Easterly!

That damn Azores High is unable to extend NW towards Greenland

Atlantic fronts come over the top introducing less cold airstream.

No signs of height rises towards Scandinavia

Unfortunately, I think they will be on the money!

That fax has snow dumping written all over it for the Pennines.

[Hegzyy]

3 minutes ago, loafer said:

You might find this interesting;

 

i know this, dew point sitting at -1/-2

[Ali1977]

Front further North on Thurs and heavier, this could turn into a decent snow event thurs evening for many in the South as the cold air digs in behind - for an hour or so anyway.

Not as amplified at T60 but everthing slightly further west, not sure how this will pan out.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[Snowy L]

Met Office might be going with their own models and we don't know what they're showing. If Glosea5 is not going for easterly then it's game over. This model has put both ECM and GFS to shame these last few winters.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Hegzyy said:

i know this, dew point sitting at -1/-2

Hegzyy

The Arpege is simply wrong. There is no way that would be rain, sleet at the very least, uppers of -8, dew points below -1, away from the coast, it has to be snow all the way.

[radiohead]

That's pretty windy over Scotland there....surely blizzard conditions on high ground at least.

Edited January 10, 2017 by radiohead

[Eskimo]

GFS takes the snow risk but further west 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Front further North on Thurs and heavier, this could turn into a decent snow event thurs evening for many in the South as the cold air digs in behind.

Not as amplified at T60 but everthing slightly further west, not sure how this will pan out.

Colder air delayed 3 hours looks to me like a wintry mix at best.

[Wivenswold]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

GFS takes the snow risk but further west 

Not to mention a hint of a Thames to Alaska Streamer.

[Mucka]

This is new

widespread snow event Friday morning?

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS takes the snow risk but further west 

That feature has backed west by a distance......

[Geordiesnow]

Everything just a tad further West so Friday morning could well be fun and games in North Eastern areas but you really dont want much more in the way of westwards movement as that milder sector could come into play. What will favour these areas is the fact winds will be off shore so there should'nt be any modification off the North Sea.

Surely its a matter of time before the Met will call this as a name storm as the winds look like they will be in the severe gale catagory coupled with the fact for some, the PPN will fall as snow.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mucka said:

This is new

widespread snow event Friday morning?

Yes this is a definate bonus, at 2.5 days away it must have a chance.

[Mucka]

Just now, Wivenswold said:

Not to mention a hint of a Thames to Alaska Streamer.

Not a Thames streamer, that requires Easterly flow.

This is from an embedded shortwave trough moving South.

[Snowy L]

Just now, Mucka said:

This is new

widespread snow event Friday morning?

ECM picked up on it yesterday, good that both are going for it.

 

[Mucka]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Everything just a tad further West so Friday morning could well be fun and games in North Eastern areas but you really dont want much more in the way of westwards movement as that milder sector could come into play. What will favour these areas is the fact winds will be off shore so there should'nt be any modification off the North Sea.

Surely its a matter of time before the Met will call this as a name storm as the winds look like they will be in the severe gale catagory coupled with the fact for some, the PPN will fall as snow.

Yeah GFS has moved that warm sector further West with each run today. It is a risk/reward scenario with closer the milder sector, the closer the associated ppn.

[winterof79]

lovely upgrade

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z wants m4 corridor northwards snow event. .....

Highlighting how fraction of exactement at this range' is v-unworthy! ..

However think there could well be widespread precipitation in snow form!

[Summer Sun]

Upgrades for the south Fri morning

[Eskimo]

Come to papa! 

[Coopsy]

I think a westward shift now = settling somewhere in the middle later. We'll see. What a time to be a model watcher :-)

[radiohead]

+90 km/h gusts inland with heavy snow....