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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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the most important thing is we have an arctic blast waiting in the wings just a couple of days away. Let's see how it actually unfolds as it happens, then get onto the potential second northerly or easterly. 

For all we know, this current high pressure may well ridge further up into Greenland and extend further past Iceland yet, we don't know for sure. The complexion of things will always alternate as we move closer to the actual time. Look at it this way, what we are about to see seems like the best thing since sliced bread if you compare it back to the dreadful winter of 2013/14! I'd rather stick cocktail sticks in my eyes than have to go through a winter like that again!! 

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Pfffff...

Para wants to give us snow even without a blocking high

gfsnh-0-348.png

Edit- as my last post seemed fairly popular even at this late hour, I had the idea of making it 'Bobby's final thought of the day'. As it's now gone... I guess not...

Edited by bobbydog
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Thankyou for that pearl of wisdom! I sort of worked that out after 12 years in here.

Sorry but so many seem to think the models are responsible and tend to personalise the outputs  for not 'playing ball'

My apologies

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Well we seem to be about to enter a COLD SNAP/BLAST or could it be longer ( I hope :D )... it still amazes me why some say downgrade/undergrade on charts that are 3,7,10 days away?? We've not even got to the weekend yet, when the cold starts to kick in...all the best winters had there ups and downs!! And this is no different, are we about to enter a period of weather not seen for quite a few yrs, 2009/10 and I'd say 78/79 as to what I hope happens :yahoo:...but who really knows, not many ( bar GP, MUCKA, SM, TEITS, TAMARA to name but a few )...it may not last and mild might push back but at the moment it's an outside bet that will happen, I think it will last and it could be something special!! But let it get there 1st, don't over analyse the charts...take the charts at face value day by day...and let take us to a winter wonderland :hi::yahoo::cold:... that's my take anywho, I don't profess to know like some on this great forum but from what little I've learnt...it looks damn interesting to say the least

 

Edited by Law of averages!!
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Not the best long term output from the 0z CPTEC BAM model (brazilian model).

Not a bad looking toppler to start 2017;

cptecnh-0-96.png

But it quickly goes downhill thereafter with too much energy in the northern arm of the jet preventing any decent amplification north of the UK & sending the colder 850mb airmass to the S/SE of us;

cptecnh-0-168.pngcptecnh-1-168.png

 

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GFS 00z looking good early and drains those Euro heights quite nicely.

If it keeps backing the pattern West we might even get a sneaky reload of cold uppers.Perhaps overly optimistic the cold uppers just manage to creep back into NW tip of Scotland.

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-1-120.png

Nice low heights to our SE by mid term and decent Atlantic amplification. All down to better retrogression of those Euro heights.

 

gfs-0-138.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

That's the good news. Now the bad News.

UKMO still phasing that closed low with the trough and still awful. It was though marginally better at T96 so fingers crossed. It is a worry though as so often where one model refuses to play ball it is proved to be right seemingly against the odds. Would love to hear from Fergie on what the MetO thinking is.

UN144-21.GIF?30-05

 

Edit 2

 

Meanwhile GFS 00z is a real beauty at just 168 with Atlantic completely blocked at pattern far enough West to get some nice snow showers. If UKMO turns out right it will be murder here, if GFS is right it will be be like being back in the playground first thing on a snowy winters morning. 

gfsnh-0-168.png

Edit 3.

GFS end of high res. Frigid.

gfsnh-0-192.pnggfsnh-1-192.png

 

GEM at 168 is relatively poor to GFS but at least it doesn't go the UKMO route.

gemnh-0-168.png?00

Edited by Mucka
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7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z looking good early and drains those Euro heights quite nicely.

If it keeps backing the pattern West we might even get a sneaky reload of cold uppers.Perhaps overly optimistic the cold uppers just manage to creep back into NW tip of Scotland.

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-1-120.png

Nice low heights to our SE by mid term and decent Atlantic amplification. All down to better retrogression of those Euro heights.

 

gfs-0-138.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

That's the good news. Now the bad News.

UKMO still phasing that closed low with the trough and still awful. It was though marginally better at T96 so fingers crossed. It is a worry though as so often where one model refuses to play ball it is proved to be right seemingly against the odds.

UN144-21.GIF?30-05

UKMO looks awful on the face of it at 144 hrs. However, funnily enough, I can see a convoluted way to get an easterly out of that. I'd rather go the GFS route though in all honesty.

The less drama the better.

Edited by CreweCold
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO looks awful on the face of it at 144 hrs. However, funnily enough, I can see a convoluted way to get an easterly out of that. I'd rather go the GFS route though in all honesty.

The less drama the better.

Morning Crew,

Never say never but the energy is heading NE over the top of both those ridges. When we see what can be on offer at just 168 in comparison with GFS I'd rather not even think about trying to find a way UKMO can get cold uppers and snow to our shores from there.

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One of the GFS or UKMO is going to be left with a serious amount of egg on its Face - both are consistent; one good, one 'bad'.. Intriguing.

At a glance then 0z looks like a COBRA run.

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Nothing to worry about. The 00z is looking fine.

gfsnh-0-180.png

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

One of the GFS or UKMO is going to be left with a serious amount of egg on its Face

Probably the GFS- It's always the GFS, seemingly!

When UKMO is out on its own showing cold it seems to rarely pull it off. When it's the party pooper, historically it's correct.

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3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Nothing to worry about. The 00z is looking fine.

gfsnh-0-180.png

Well there's one thing about the 0z GFS, we're almost certainly getting the Scandi high further into FI. Heights already building over the European trough at 198 hrs.

Bitterly cold, but how many times have we been here with the GFS before?!

gfsnh-1-210.png

Edited by CreweCold

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Busy here this morning, is something going on? :ball-santa-emoji:

 

GFS 18z parallel just out and it is even better than GFS Op end of high res and stays cold right to day 15. (and beyond!)

gfsnh-0-192.png?18gfsnh-0-240.png?18gfsnh-0-324.png?18gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

Now that's a COBRA run!

Edited by Mucka
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Yep, scandi high on this run, but that drags the cold west better anyway. It's swings and roundabouts, but however you look at it, we're in a decent place.

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2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Yep, scandi high on this run, but that drags the cold west better anyway. It's swings and roundabouts, but however you look at it, we're in a decent place.

Is there a reason you are discounting UKMO?

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Is there a reason you are discounting UKMO?

Did I even mention the UKMO?

 

Edit (poss misunderstanding, I was replying to Crewecold's post)

Edited by kumquat
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5 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Did I even mention the UKMO?

No, that's why I ask. All your comments seem to assume GFS is correct and ignore the UKMO output.

Edit.

Just seen your edit, but I wasn't being off with you, it was a genuine question as you seem confident, so I wondered why you weren't worried about UKMO.

Edited by Mucka
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

No, that's why I ask. All your comments seem to assume GFS is correct and ignore the UKMO output.

If UKMO could go out further I would comment on it. We're out beyond 144 here. Yes on UKMO things get pulled towards Scandi.more, there is less cold coming west. After that I have no idea how to "comment" on it's output, other than guess work, that would be shot down more than what I am doing now, which is commenting on something seeable.

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Just now, kumquat said:

If UKMO could go out further I would comment on it. We're out beyond 144 here. Yes on UKMO things get pulled towards Scandi.more, there is less cold coming west. After that I have no idea how to "comment" on it's output, other than guess work, that would be shot down more than what I am doing now, which is commenting on something seeable.

I wasn't shooting you down, sorry if it seemed that way, I was genuinely curious.

UKMO is not good at 144 which is all that matters really. But yeah, nobody knows what it would show at 240.

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Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Gem and UKMO are not great at all. We need cross model agreement. This has happened time and time again. 

Well I'm off to bed. Will check the 6z GFS and 0z ECM when I get up. Would be nice to get a decent ECM to settle the nerves but yes, UKMO and GEM aren't great.

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seeable is a terrible word - why did I even say that?

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