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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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Just now, Nick L said:

Grid points aren't as cold as you might expect actually. 2m temps of around 2-3c, although night times would be well below freezing. Now, if we had snow cover...

it's the closest we have come to snow since 2010

 

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Ice ice baby...

ECU0-240.gif

@Nick L is there not a general rule of thumb for surface temps from the upper temps?

Edited by bobbydog

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Just now, bluearmy said:

the euro trough gains some strength day 9 but we need to find some energy for it or it will fill

I'm a bit surprised it doesn't deepen a bit more. I can barely contain myself the ECM looks amazing for down here, I could do my husky ride  from my house rather than fighting with snow chains to get up into the mountains!

It would be great to see this ECM run verify and the 850's might get lowered more nearer the time which might help a bit more with any North Sea convection.

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If ECM comes true might be in for a back-loaded Jan. Looks interesting to say the least and if all fails a frosty HP. Winter arrives wednesday:yahoo:

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Guys , the easterly you show above , is never going to do much for UK for snow and any fun. People keep posting future easterly  charts and they are not  good easterly , we need a full easterly  or NE to get decent snow. 

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13 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

SE ENGLAND STAYING COLD ..:cold:

IMG_0215.PNG

Think most of the U.K. Would be , surface cold light winds and hard frosts :)

IMG_1305.PNG

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

BOOOM

Freezing ice days and plenty of snow down south on this run, shame it's at 240 again and is on its own with the other zoos models. 

IMG_3973.PNG

Snow showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of snow for the southern half of the UK. I know it won't look like that at day 10 but I wonder if that ridge of high pressure just sneaking out of Newfoundland and flirting with Greenland wants to hoover up the Scandi High and turn it into a Greenland one? What with the vortex seemingly wanting to move to the Eastern side of the polar field. It's the hope that kills you

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, in rural SE England, I would say daytime Max temps significantly below freezing perhaps?

the south looks like it will have snow showers where the pressure is lower with very low dew points from a easterly any snow lying will be like powder but i have a feeling this will be a outlier sadly

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Noticed this secondary low on the T96 just east of the UK.

20170901ECMT96.png

I'm guessing if there was a T84 that low would be right over the UK. Both ECM and UKMO have picked up on secondary lows close to the UK.

 

 

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ECM ends very very cold , easterly winds and snow showers into the east :yahoo:

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ECM with a nice easterly at the end of the run. Englandshire feeling the brunt of it. :cold:

Screen Shot 2017-01-09 at 18.58.55.png 

 Screen Shot 2017-01-09 at 18.58.06.png

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-09 at 19.01.15.png

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Sensational Ecm 12z, especially that T+240..what a cracker..this really is a test for the Ecm, hope it passes with flying colours!..wow

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Chanel lows..pm incursión. .etc.

The ecm refuses to budge on it's continental incursion.  And statistics suggest solid format.

Im also at present doing personal research into land mass impact of cold regarding land mass equation and maritime (water/sea) impacts. .will divulge outcomes. 

Anyway. .the ec solid pronounced' and steadfast. .it's the friend that drives you when all the rest are getting bladdered!!!..

Great evolution/synoptic. .

Winter Herald s

J156-21.gif

ECM1-240-8.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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Well ECM ends with a very cold end but to me would just be bitterly cold but dry.I would have thought if this ever verified we would need a slight NE feed as opposed to a direct E feed to get some convection off North Sea. I may be reading this wrong but just my take on it.

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4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Noticed this secondary low on the T96 just east of the UK.

20170901ECMT96.png

I'm guessing if there was a T84 that low would be right over the UK. Both ECM and UKMO have picked up on secondary lows close to the UK.

 

 

Ukd0VNM.gif

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I do wonder whether an Easterly is possible, the ECM keeps picking it up, and the METO update today seems full of uncertainty. Perhaps they haven't entirely discounted it.

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11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

BOOOM

Freezing ice days and plenty of snow down south on this run, shame it's at 240 again and is on its own with the other Op models. 

IMG_3973.PNG

Well out of the three main models only ECM and GFS go to 240 on their Op runs.

If we look back to 144 then I would say UKMO is siding with ECM rather than GFS which is positive, plus the EC ens have been solid in the longer term in the last 36 hours, so one would hope we are onto something !!

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Ukd0VNM.gif

Thanks, looks good for eastern areas if it were to come off. Even if it doesn't this is a very unstable Northwesterly so troughs can pop up anywhere at any time.

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1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Well ECM ends with a very cold end but to me would just be bitterly cold but dry.I would have thought if this ever verified we would need a slight NE feed as opposed to a direct E feed to get some convection off North Sea. I may be reading this wrong but just my take on it.

The easterly on this run is indeed dry apart from some light precip along the south coast at the very end of the run. But those details will change from run to run. Long way to go.

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I hope this does materalise and the ECM are right. Potential 1979 repeat on the cards. 

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