Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

ECM is quite consistent with yesterday's 12Z

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

Not sure what you're looking for at, looks primed for a scandi high to me. Very similar to this morning and yesterday's 12z

Edited January 8, 2017 by Weathizard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

would have thought very cold, mild uppers, but cold under high, Scotland, and N/NW snow to remain

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Longtimelurker said:

So that's your justification for a 24hr snap? k

Fair enough will correct myself it's a 48 hour cold spell

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

Sorry but this is a cold chart

Sure the upper air is warmer but it would be cold at the surface under that ridge.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

I don't think so

 

[bradymk]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

Disagree, almost the exact same as yesterday's 12z 192 chart and we know how that ended. 

[Frosty.]

Being a snow starved coldie, I'm happy with the Ecm 12z so far!.

bring on the Arctic!

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 144hrs the ecm tonight has the cold uppers East of Ireland whereas this morning they were 100 miles West of Ireland.

Minor changes day by day can prove a lot by Friday

I think as Nick says, some are getting confused when comparing the ECM charts from this morning to this evening as you have the 12 hours difference which can make things alter quite a bit but to my eyes, this evening's ECM is fairly identical to this morning's one barring minor detail changes which of course you should expect.

Maybe people thought it was going to be as amplified as the UKMO? Either way its singing from a similar hymn sheet so as far as Im concerned that is good enough for me. Not fussed whether it shows an easterly or not as its still too early to call yet.

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 144hrs the ecm tonight has the cold uppers East of Ireland whereas this morning they were 100 miles West of Ireland.

Minor changes day by day can prove a lot by Friday

Midlands East  Ireland up to NI and UK have-8 uppers ecm 144!

[nick sussex]

The ECM is no different than its morning evolution. The 24 hour steps are causing some undue panic, at T168hrs pressure is rising to the ne and upstream its exactly the same.

[ribster]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

Looks to be following the same evolution as the 12z yesterday to me, I've got my pie slice ready!

[Jonan92]

The main difference is a drift to the east for the cold

[Eskimo]

There seems to be a lot of sensitive people in here, just ignore stupid posts, it's far easier trust me. 

The ECM still shows ridging up to scandy but isn't as amplified.

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is no different than its morning evolution. The 24 hour steps are causing some undue panic, at T168hrs pressure is rising to the ne and upstream its exactly the same.

The voice of sanity and reason Nick! Exactly what i am seeing. its really a good run so far! 

Pressure is rising to the NE, it wouldn't be exactly mild under the high anyway even further S. By 168hrs.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mark N

[SteveB]

8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Which table ordered the Chalk and Cheese?

That is a truly shocking difference, but really does emphasis how fragile any projected cold spell is in this part of the world, only takes one spoiler shortwave to derail the block and allow the Atlantic back in.

I really feel tomorrow mornings models will tell us which way this is going.

But nothing is off the table...... yet

Edited January 8, 2017 by SteveB

[terrier]

Confused.com some say cold others say game over for cold. How is anyone suppose to follow the output. 

[Ali1977]

Cold over at 168, I don't think so this is a cold chart and the Atlantic has hit the brakes.

[radiohead]

Again, 12Z ECM has a consistent pattern with yesterday's 12Z. Impressive, no matter what happens by day 10, as this is already well into FI land now.

[Stozzy]

192 high remains over the uk , cold with night frosts , very cold over any snow cover 

[chris55]

ECM sticking with the Scandi heights theme, building blocks coming into place.

As long as those Azores lows behave!

[MR EXTREMES]

even the 216 ecm chart will be very close to this mornings run still the easterly holds on just a slower evolution hope its not to slow be spring before you know it.

good run from ukmo and ecm tonight

[January Snowstorm]

The ecm does look better in the longer term as the atlantic does slow down. A lot is down to location for Ireland the chance of snow dissipates aft Friday though remaining cold

[Captain Shortwave]

Well within the realms of recent ECM operationals, just a touch flatter so probably turning dry everywhere but remaining cold, severe frosts with overnight lows down to -10C in many sheltered parts of the country. 

Still for me a question of whether we go into a cold easterly or go into another prolonged settled spell, but I like the consistency of the ECM here, I would love to get a bit of the UKMO luck with that cut off Azores low developing to aid amplification. Still it is a good run.

@January Snowstorm I understand the frustration as you are probably the most westerly member posting on here and as such the cold clears your location the earliest, I do suspect however that the westerly GFS solution should hopefully fade away over the next 24 hours. 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Stozzy said:

192 high remains over the uk , cold with night frosts , very cold over any snow cover 

Probably close to an ice day in the SE,  getting a little milder the further NW you go.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka