Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[weirpig]

Can we bypass the spam fritters this evening  better run on the ecm tonight. Another option on the table 

[nick sussex]

Well the ECM at T192hrs is an improvement on this mornings run, the UKMO has improved slightly upto T144hrs.

The ECM from early on had some better foundations to build on. We really need to see that Russian ridge do us a favour, we must get that area of positive heights north and the shortwave in Russia to not complicate matters.

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Nice 192, again just on the marginal side for England at least, but not far off!

A snow maker for the north and east

[bluearmy]

ecm running on old data similar to gem then ...........

there are options other than straight zonality to follow immediately

[chris55]

216 a bit closer to last night 12z than this mornings 00z. Who knows where we will end up.

[tight isobar]

Now c' mon..

The ec model has horizontal height spread' combination 'with' Russian inspire of heights trying to marry' polar exactions of height. ..with more than a whiff of retro' on nw Atlantic quater! !!

Fantasy stuff..in the real world. 

Very encouraging. 

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM isn't as clean doe it does offer a second bite at getting that arctic maritime airmass in.

   

That low g over the top feeds into the Euro trough and slips south east through the country. Snow to modest levels anywhere along the frontal boundary, though  if it did verify then we might see warm sectors factored in.

Corresponding 850s

   

As you can see the first northerly doesn't really get into the UK, the second attempt should on this run. Of course the initial polar maritime northwesterly at day 6 looks potent enough for northern and western areas.

 

ECM shows there is a lot of scope for optimism tonight and there is no need for panic. Cold for 48 hours with snow for many and I do feel upgrades will follow in the coming days. The fact it's now within 144 hrs and it's ecm is something members can't dismiss

[IDO]

The ECM is the best case scenario and typical D8-10 charts from them.

Not an outcome that you could discount as it keeps popping up, and I suspect it has cluster support, though nominal on the GEFS.

I will be surprised if the mean comes close to the op, but you never know with the ECM!

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ecm running on old data similar to gem then ...........

there are options other than straight zonality to follow immediately

The GFS went off on one this time yesterday so you could be right...

[booferking]

ECM is best we can hope for out of this cold spell keeps the cold air  to the end of the run oh my world hold on what wwe got here.

[ribster]

Indeed, one or two as usual being slightly premature in calling it 'over'. ECM looks good to me with potential to extend a cold spell

[SMU]

A great ECM this eve moving on exactly 1 day from yesterday with now 5 days of potential snow from day 5-10-

obviously the fairy tale ending with the best chart of the winter - A Feb 1991 would arrive day 11 - all be it slightly warmer at 850

[Seasonality]

10 day tease!

[Captain Shortwave]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

ECM shows there is a lot of scope for optimism tonight and there is no need for panic. Cold for 48 hours with snow for many and I do feel upgrades will follow in the coming days. The fact it's now within 144 hrs and it's ecm is something members can't dismiss

Indeed, though we could do with the models not putting in extra secondary lows which could potentially flatten the pattern, the ECM gets away with it and the UKMO looks likely to do the same.

ECM day 9/10, just plain naughty

   

That's a cold chart, oh for goodness sake ECM please tell me you haven't picked up the old ECM's tricks.

[Daniel*]

I'd bank the ECMWF 12z widespread risk of snow a cold spell rather than a snap.

Phenomenal 240 chart! Likelihood not great, but stranger things have happened.  

 

[Eskimo]

You what!? ECM on the post-Christmas alcohol leftovers. 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, snowice said:

ECM shows there is a lot of scope for optimism tonight and there is no need for panic. Cold for 48 hours with snow for many and I do feel upgrades will follow in the coming days. The fact it's now within 144 hrs and it's ecm is something members can't dismiss

Agreed, the Ecm 12z is a very encouraging run for coldies, not only for later next week but longer term too.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

I know it takes a sensible person to take the ECM 10 day chart with a pinch of salt but all that being said I nearly dropped my dinner when I saw it.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, snowice said:

ECM shows there is a lot of scope for optimism tonight and there is no need for panic. Cold for 48 hours with snow for many and I do feel upgrades will follow in the coming days. The fact it's now within 144 hrs and it's ecm is something members can't dismiss

Quite. But I'm sure the moaners will want their tuppence worth. Lets wait to see where it sits within the ensembles.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Seasonality

[blizzard81]

The ecm is really, really taking the mickey out of us now! For pity's sake, the evolution from 216 to 240 is just so silly you have to laugh. The ecm op this winter has been pants post day 7, sometimes post day 6. It has taken it way too far tonight though.

[nick sussex]

Oh dear please ECM no more! lol

Putting aside the differences between the ECM and GFS we do have an overall trend that looks solid however the weather for the UK could end up a lot different.

The upstream pattern is going to flatten out towards days 8 to 10, the only way to survive the PV heading back south towards the Atlantic is to develop that high as the ECM does, otherwise we end up with the PV too far east and our window of opportunity disappears.

However we've been here before with the ECM and its a hard slog to get to its days 9 and 10 output.

[SMU]

Just add- people in locations like NI, NW england, North wales/ Cheshire Gap & western scotland will be licking their lips out the outputs as this scenario favours their locations for the first main bout of proper snow zonality this winter...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting GFS again and decent cold showing.  Re cold pattern well, is there any real chance of solid HLB?  Probably not long lasting ....that comes in March  but I think the cold shot is 7-12 days long with E and SE losing it last.  ECM holding back compared to 12z but a cold pattern is still establishing and still a good run.  I think temps will be colder than showing on the 00z, one thing I've noticed is that we have still achieved some pretty cold conditions even under this 'dull' regime we've had.

I'm of the opinion that coldest shot won't come before 15th but the pattern is setting up and deep depression to move NW/SE across U.K.  Will it be sub lows as part of mean trough to NE?  All I think is winds NW/N/NE to be had during this 'forecast' cold spell.

Don't have 1987 or 2010 in mind and then you won't be too diappointed

Have a good day

BFTP

 

Thank you ECM.  Now I am getting pretty interested.  The script is looking good....still lots of time to disintegrate, but we move forward as interest starts well well before t240.  Now off to check the UKMO.....GFS is happy go lucky enough

 

reading back there are quite a few that completely will not believe what they see on the ECM.....ha ha.  Where will we actually go?

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Accomplishment!..

Perhaps not just yet..but on compare through spreads/ens etc.

The final format/ road to cold "decency"..is alive and kicking. 

Any negativity. .should soon become positivity! !

Models smelling the out!!

#cold..#v-cold

[Scandinavian High.]

Here we go upgrades all round..

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm is really, really taking the mickey out of us now! For pity's sake, the evolution from 216 to 240 is just so silly you have to laugh. The ecm op this winter has been pants post day 7, sometimes post day 6. It has taken it way too far tonight though.

Think it would look better in GFS style 6hr chunks so we can see whats happening. 24hr blocks often look weird between each other. Not saying it will happen though. Maybe a fun friday night special? Can only dream.