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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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Happy new year to you all. Here's to 2017 bringing us all what we want, and that includes much better NWP outputs for cold and flippin' snow!!!

 

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Big swing to mild on the 18z suite. Let's hope it's even more drunk due to New Year!

Maybe Tamara hacked it - showing cold extended!

Edited by blizzard81
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Looking at ECM/GFS ens... the easterly signal has 95% gone. To such an extent that cold zonal looks like the eventual outcome on GEFS! ECM looks very UK high dominated, very very dry. It's been a tough 24 hours for snow fans...

Happy New Year everyone!

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Oh well another year another dozen garden paths.... lets all just hope that we have a similar JFM as we had in 2013.... somethings got to give soon.. the UK has been snow starved for long enough.. well lowland areas anyway...but it has seemed the last 2 winters even living at altitude up here in the Peaks is not good enough... oh well HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL.. May you live long and happy lives... see you all tomorrow to start all over again...Peace love and kindness to you one and all.

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Only see 3 members above 0c 850 values.

not horrendous eh 

IMG_5101.GIF

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at ECM/GFS ens... the easterly signal has 95% gone. To such an extent that cold zonal looks like the eventual outcome on GEFS! ECM looks very UK high dominated, very very dry. It's been a tough 24 hours for snow fans...

Happy New Year everyone!

I certainly wouldn't trust the 18z suite, especially with the lack of data on NYD hahahaha! Ooooh :)

 

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1 hour ago, Banbury said:

Just looking at ECM alone , I would say NO, something from the East is more likely than anything zonal , even the UKMO 144 goes against zonal

Even now???    -   The fat lady's TCP is rumbling in her throat for this winter now I'm afraid. agony for us snow fans again.

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31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Only see 3 members above 0c 850 values.

not horrendous eh 

IMG_5101.GIF

Only 3 members near the values we want though equally (assuming your referring to the the last 3rd of the run.

EDIT : although there is a sinking mean trough towards the end, a less rewarding run but a more secure route to some kind of cold / snow event.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Happy New Year 1 and all. 

Here's hoping the zonal stays in hiding through 2017 also :drunk-emoji::ball-santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

Have to add,  regardless of people's views,  hopes and tendencies. All members on here are a fab family and we probably spend more time with each other than families at this time of year, so thanks to you all and especially the greying moderators and site developers.

Here's hoping for a whiter 2017

Edited by geordiekev
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53 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I know the 18z set can be zany but just looked at the control and that is zonal as well!

gefsens850birmingham0.png?cb

Control a huge outlier towards the end

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Stuff the charts,stuff the bloody useless weather,happy new year everyone,now wheres the bloody snow thats been missing for years

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51 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Happy, healthy 2017 to all Netweatherers!  :)   We all moan about our weather but we will all be back next year to moan some more!

Of course....Happy New Year everyone!:yahoo:

 

The 18z is already starting to look a lot better!:D Cant wait for the 1st Jan 00z charts!!!

gfs-1-300.png

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-2-300.png

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Even now???    -   The fat lady's TCP is rumbling in her throat for this winter now I'm afraid. agony for us snow fans again.

Yes even now , the ENS aren't that bad too be honest

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happy new year, and thanks to GP, IF, FROSTY, SM,NS, GTLTW, KNOCKER, KARYO, CATACOL, SS, LEGRITTER, BLIZZARD, FEB, et al and any others I've obviously missed for your continuing input. Cheers

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only 3 members near the values we want though equally (assuming your referring to the the last 3rd of the run.

EDIT : although there is a sinking mean trough towards the end, a less rewarding run but a more secure route to some kind of cold / snow event.

Yes bud, was referring to last 3rd. 

I'm not gonna hold my breathe for snow though as I will likely die!!

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Yes even now , the ENS aren't that bad too be honest

But they are trending the wrong way though.

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Just now, Winter Cold said:

Happy New Year to everyone on Netweather! Its a brilliant forum, I dont post much but im on here all day every day reading and learning and enjoying the ride! Fingers crossed we get that snow event we've all been craving in 2017 :)

18z ensembles for South Yorksire below, still showing a good cooling off towards mid-month, Sheffield no higher than 1 or 2c on the mean. Mid month the watch point atm. I hope 2017 is a great, safe and happy year for you all.

t2mSouth~Yorkshire.png

 

Best,

Now in that form they do look very good towards the end I have to say, although a lot must be dry.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now in that form they do look very good towards the end I have to say, although a lot must be dry.

You may have forgotten the old adage which in my experience often works  : get the cold in first and the snow will come!

Happy New Year all

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Just now, Weather Boy said:

You may have forgotten the old adage which in my experience often works  : get the cold in first and the snow will come!

Happy New Year all

That's ok with high pressure of say 1025 / 1030, BUT - provided its with insanely low 500mb heights and a stiff - gale force Easterly.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's ok with high pressure of say 1025 / 1030, BUT - provided its with insanely low 500mb heights and a stiff - gale force Easterly.

Well, I certainly didn't invent the expression but I think it means that snow lovers ought not to worry about dry v cold conditions as that will change. 

 

Obviously dry conditions way into FI unlikely to verify (although admittedly it could turn mild beforehand)

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well folks models r up an down atm but surely one of those cold snowy charts will bare fruit for our little island. may i wish all the forum members and staf a happy new year hope its a good1 for all of u.

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