Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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ECM shows 'perhaps' the atlantic could be steered a bit further away....

very cold at 120 - possible light flurries in knocker territory!

IMG_1717.PNG

 

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Still very cold at the surface for england and wales at least

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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cant see the 12z repeating the heights around ne Canada/greeny from the 00z at day 7/8

 

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Is it just me or is the forecast SSW on GFS always at 300 plus hours?

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2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Is it just me or is the forecast SSW on GFS always at 300 plus hours?

The warming starts much earlier, there isn't a technical SSW (mean reversal at 10mb 60N) being modelled yet , not consistently any way, if the warming progresses and doesn't fizzle out, we should start to see one being modelled and in a nearer timeframe, this week, jury still out on whether it will do that though.

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Enjoy the charts because its the only charts we have:D, dry up to mid term turning Increasingly Unsettled there after.:yahoo:

ECM1-96 (4).gif

ECM1-120 (10).gif

ECM1-216 (7).gif

ECM1-240 (6).gif

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Certainly, an upward trend for temps from the 23rd on this evening GFS ens double figures possible in the south

gefstmp2mmaxLondon.png

Wetter with it

gefsens850London0.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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So in summary it looks like..... ( as we stand tonight)

Grey and cool to begin the week, bits of drizzle here and there, but if the skies clear then some cold nights and sunnier days.

As we head towards the latter part of the week more of a trend for drier clearer air to move our way from the continent, increasing the likelyhood of some quite cold nights and cool sunny days.

Then a signal for a more mobile, milder pattern, potentially turning cooler but still unsettled.

Overall a changeable next two weeks with a bit of everything thrown in........

Then we look forward to the big February freeze up courtesy of the SSW ;)  (tongue in cheek here) you never know.

 

 

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Whiff of a pressure rise over scandi after day 10 on the ecm op. Looking to see the ext ens trending colder towards the back end.

Edited by blizzard81

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Well at least the ECM displaces the Azores high. Any earlier differences due to disagreements about some initial energy heading se like the UKMO don't currently effect the medium term.

It looks like turning colder during the week for the UK as the flow turns more se and there is still the chance for something wintry given both the UKMO and GFS attempt to bring some fronts in before the cold is pushed away.

 

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

So in summary it looks like..... ( as we stand tonight)

Grey and cool to begin the week, bits of drizzle here and there, but if the skies clear then some cold nights and sunnier days.

As we head towards the latter part of the week more of a trend for drier clearer air to move our way from the continent, increasing the likelyhood of some quite cold nights and cool sunny days.

Then a signal for a more mobile, milder pattern, potentially turning cooler but still unsettled.

Overall a changeable next two weeks with a bit of everything thrown in........

Then we look forward to the big February freeze up courtesy of the SSW ;)  (tongue in cheek here) you never know.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it takes the Atlantic breaking through to get some snow to our shores. The westerly of mid November was colder than the most recent northwesterly.

Well the CFS crystal ball has indeed showed a February freeze for the last week or so but I haven't posted any charts because it's exactly that... A crystal ball!

In the reliable however, something more seasonal over the next few days and into the weekend.

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