Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Ice Day]

Today has really been massively encouraging for me as all the FI runs have been different but have ended up with a cold outcome!  Another cold evolution into GFS FI.

Edit. And the Atlantic is asleep

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ice Day

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Low pressure near s Greenland is scuppering the GH I have a feeling this may be a close but no cigar.....UK high in FI anyone?

Or a nice northerly inbound 

[bluearmy]

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid! 

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

[nick sussex]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Also there is a growing signal to shift the strat vortex Eastwards, however, this looks a top down event (if it does propagate of course), so that cant surely be a reason for the Greenland trop height signal, the timeframes surely wouldn't add up?

It does seem a bit of a coincidence that the retrogression signal has started appearing just as the forecasts for the MJO increased its amplitude and have it getting out of the COD in week 2. Re the strat agreed that would be a very quick response although that's not really my forte, I'm happier obsessing over shortwaves and margin for error! lol

[Jonan92]

Strong stratospheric warming

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid!

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

Its a real shame we don't have access to the ECM postage stamps. ECM pulled the link which no longer works.

[stewfox]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Epic fl inbound on 18z GFS 

 

-13c in Belgium at 9pm on 21 Jan

Tad chilly here as well

ok it only gets down to -17c in Belgium and still la la land  but a small westward movement and further 'upgrades'  things not looking too shabby .

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid! 

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

Even the ecm op shifted the easterly southwards in the 5 day timeframe compared to the ops of the last few days.

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 72. Clear adjustment west in line with Opp.

[Scandinavian High.]

24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Unless there is a dramatic upgrade in the next 24 hours, this is not going to be a classic easterly. The flow is too slack and the uppers are not low enough. For these two reasons, any snow from the east will be minimal. Don't get me wrong, this is a huge improvement on the last 3 winters but in terms of real snow potential (next 48hrs aside), I think most people will be pinning their hopes on retrogression as the easterly will be a bit of a let down to many on here.

There would be snow showers in south east England..

Edited January 11, 2017 by abbie123

[SMU]

31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid! 

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

I think thats very unlikely- I would say the cut off point will be the midlands-

Look at the 18z mean- its already worked its way westwards a LONG way from the 12z

18z v 12z

Lots of 18z ENS Shaping up like the ECM

PTB 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,18

quite an upgrade !!

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Jason M]

Don't be surprised if the system dropping down from the NW ends up coming down the Irish sea come the day. Seen this many a time over the years. 

[Banbury]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid! 

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

But pushed back Westwards after Monday

[Paul_1978]

37 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Strong stratospheric warming

.....at 348 hours? 

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

.....at 348 hours? 

It is much easier to predict at that height, if it is forecast then it is very likely to happen. In fact recently the GFS has underdone temperature rises, if anything, 

The effect on the trop is, however, less predictable.

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the latest fax charts and the ECM solution at day 5 looks quite lonely - strange for it to go doolally at day 4/5 but then this recent period of model watching has hardly been solid! 

they seem content that the milder air pushes across the whole country by the end of the weekend

I do say this quite often but too me the fax charts are only a forecasters drawing of where fronts troughs etc will be placed based just purely on the UKMO hence why they always look identical to the latest UKMO run regardless.

I think what we are seeing in the outputs now is a blocked pattern but just how far northwards will the high get remains a huge doubt, it could still end up as a Euro high if there is too much energy spilling eastwards but if it does get far enough North then we should pull in some cold air from the continent or it could end up over the UK itself. Whichever way, trend is for pressure to rise and for the weather to settle down but if we get enough cold air from the East then there is a small chance of some convective weather in eastern areas and for frosts potentially to be quite widespread and severe.

Do like the trends of perhaps retrogression to Greenland as that will help the PV to drop into Scandi and that is where the classic easterlies occur from hence why it was a bit galling how close we could of been to that classic easterly a week or so ago which instead headed into Eastern Europe

[Mucka]

Latest MetO forecast very much at odds with latest ECM ensembles so they seem very happy with UKMO 12z solution. We will see.

UK forecast: "Cloudy, damp and mild on Monday."

ECM 12z ensembles, cold for at least 10 days!

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Good agreement between UKMO and GFS at 96h this morning and since GFS is very similar to last night out to that time it must mean UKMO has moved toward it and ECM.

 

Cold air just about creeping back into the SE at 120 on GFS.

UKMO a bit of a dogs dinner by 120 but much better than recent efforts.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good agreement between UKMO and GFS at 96h this morning and since GFS is very similar to last night out to that time it must mean UKMO has moved toward it and ECM.

 

Cold air just about creeping back into the SE at 120 on GFS.

Yep, GFS getting its 'nose' up bit better so far this run

Ideally need to see that low to NW spin some energy SE

Edited January 12, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, GFS getting its 'nose' up bit better so far this run

Yes quite different upstream to recent output. Really develops that low and stalls it SW of Greenland

UKMO 144

Edited January 12, 2017 by Mucka

[AWD]

Apologies for the unrelated question, but do you two ever sleep?

Onto the 0z model output, an improvement on this mornings UKMO output compared to last nights with a sharper ridge building, but still some way from the 12z ECM scenario.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Apologies for the unrelated question, but do you two ever sleep?

 

Only in my dreams. 

A bit nippy under that high.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Only in my dreams. 

A bit nippy under that high.

I think the way will be paved for retrogression in FI

That trough in the Atlantic is rapidly filling with the aid of ridging behind...Joint effort

Edited January 12, 2017 by CreweCold

[AWD]

The UKMO T144 is a little underwhelming tbh;

That little low to the SE of Iceland preventing the high from taking up a much better position potentially.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I think the way will be paved for retrogression in FI

That trough in the Atlantic is rapidly filling with the aid of ridging behind

Yeah looks good, all about how the Atlantic trough disrupts.

GEM 144 for what it is worth.