Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well if it does land it depends whether you see a quick initial response or whether you have to wait several weeks for that to happen. Generally theres a stronger response if the AO is positive at the time of the SSW in terms of impact on the NH pattern. If some HLB does pop up then its a bit of a lottery though where that sets up.

Thanks, Nick. I guess it's a matter of wait and see then. The positive being, any reduction in zonal winds will keep the Atlantic at bay. 

[chris55]

Charts looking milder in the mid term, will probably feel really quite nice to have that wind blowing and the smell of the moist Atlantic air pushing aside the stagnant air of late.

It will take its time to move in though for those down south, probably the weekend before we really feel the effect.

 

As long as it doesn't last "to long" im ready to embrace it.

Plenty of frosts (and we can tick the frosts box for most down south at least) and one good lowland snowfall is all I ask in winter and we still have plenty of time for the latter.

[A.J]

I've just been perusing the NW winter forecast and some potted model discussion threads from about 2 months ago and the forecast suggested a possibility of a blocked regime for end of november, december and into January and the quick review of model threads for the same period inferred a similar outcome...........a number of folk have complained about a lack of cold, it's been horrible winter etc etc when in fact a blocked pattern is exactly what we've had these past month or two....what they really mean is that they haven't had tons of snow. Personally I think the NW forecast team and indeed some well learned and respected posters (not going to name names, but most know who they are) have actually done a pretty good job with the forecasting over the last two months......and worth noting, that a potential sudden strat warming gives us intriguing prospects as we move into the final third of winter.

Yes, the GFS look rather uninspiring for cold/snowy weather in the reliable time frame and indeed out into FI looking at the lower atmosphere but certainly there are rumblings of significant stratospheric warming from the top to the tropopause in the (fairly) reliable time frames, the knock on effects for our part of the world is unknown currently but I'd take that over a raging polar vortex that we saw last winter, any day of the week

 

[nick sussex]

Generally good agreement at T144hrs between the ECM/GFS/UKMO in terms of overall pattern but the ECM is the coldest solution with the continental flow holding on for longest.

The se especially could stay on the cold side till Friday.

At last some differences showing up re the upstream pattern between the ECM and GFS at T192hrs, the ECM more amplified at that stage. Whether this produces anything of interest on days 9 and 10 we'll see.

Edited January 22, 2017 by nick sussex

[Gustywind]

Block really fighting hard to hang on at t192, still chilly surface temps I'd expect for most of England, especially the south east.

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Block really fighting hard to hang on at t192, still chilly surface temps I'd expect for most of England, especially the south east.

Indeed it does, but for a chance of the sort of pattern most on here want for the last month of winter I would say it's the worst output of the 3, high pressure holding on to the south East? 

[Singularity]

Just in case some are overlooking it due to the deceptively high upper air temps; after an increasingly cold feeling Wednesday, Thursday looks to be an impressively cold feeling day across the board as we see a long-draw S to SE flow from a frigid European mainland; temperatures starting below zero and peaking at just a few degrees for most will combine with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range (highest in west) and keep it feeling subzero all day in many places.

For some of us it will be about as properly wintry as it's managed to get in what has, as far as I'm concerned, been the 'king troll winter' of 2016-17 (it will take an exceptionally cold 2nd half to Feb to give it much of a redeeming feature!).

[danm]

1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

I've just been perusing the NW winter forecast and some potted model discussion threads from about 2 months ago and the forecast suggested a possibility of a blocked regime for end of november, december and into January and the quick review of model threads for the same period inferred a similar outcome...........a number of folk have complained about a lack of cold, it's been horrible winter etc etc when in fact a blocked pattern is exactly what we've had these past month or two....what they really mean is that they haven't had tons of snow. Personally I think the NW forecast team and indeed some well learned and respected posters (not going to name names, but most know who they are) have actually done a pretty good job with the forecasting over the last two months......and worth noting, that a potential sudden strat warming gives us intriguing prospects as we move into the final third of winter.

Yes, the GFS look rather uninspiring for cold/snowy weather in the reliable time frame and indeed out into FI looking at the lower atmosphere but certainly there are rumblings of significant stratospheric warming from the top to the tropopause in the (fairly) reliable time frames, the knock on effects for our part of the world is unknown currently but I'd take that over a raging polar vortex that we saw last winter, any day of the week

 

Yep very well said. Although we've not had much snow at all this winter, at least we've had a lot of cold sunny days and frosty nights. Far better than wind and rain, something we've suffered with relentlessly over the last few winters.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks...  At T+144  both ecm and gfs show a strong block to our east , but without doubt the Atlantic will be pushing in. but the question is how much say does the Atlantic have???

[Guest]

WINTER 2016/17 FULL REPORT No. 10 WITH JANUARY 22nd INPUT

Please note I am still learning how to cut and paste various types of charts into my posts so please bear with me as I increasingly use these in future reports.

A Review Of The Last Week:

In my last full weekly report (on page 269 of this thread) I was commenting on just how busy it had been with nearly 100 pages in the week to last Sunday. Since then it has turned increasingly quiet – surely I didn’t bore you all into submission? It is due to yet more disappointment with far less promising recent model output.  Well, I will do my best to add a little cheer to the downbeat mood as there are still a few interesting possibilities. I’ll attempt to redress the balance of a lack of posts on here with my longest one yet. If you think that you’re suffering from model fatigue, you will be after reading this!!!

On Friday I was exchanging PMs with another member. I had been wondering why even some of the stalwart posters had deserted the model thread. The answer, I was told, is that many of you guys had gone over to the politics thread. So I had a quick look and there you all were!  Although I take quite a keen interest in politics and current affairs, I do not wish to be drawn into debates on any social media forum. There’s a real danger of one muddling up the two threads and posting ones views here on the Winter model thread. Perhaps along these lines:

The 18z GFS T+240 (D10): Donald J Trump says that the UK will definitely get snow in February. The 12z ECM T+1632 (D68):  Britain will trigger Article 50 - bound to verify. The 12z UKMO predicts a hard Brexit but then a general thaw but we’ll need more runs and a greater consensus with other models. GEM fires up the Jet Stream straight into Brussels. The JMA shows cold air advection into Scotland as Nicola Sturgeon ponders a second Scottish referendum. The CIA (not the CMA) forecasts a huge undercut by Mexicans as they build that wall. Meanwhile NAVGEM predicts a victory for Marine Le Pen but their op run is a big outlier. The GEFS mean (really mean) shows the European cold block strengthening while the EU weakens further. Despite global warming, all hell will freeze over. The west based -NAO just about makes it to the White House. Moderators send many Remainers to the moan thread.  

I had better get back on track before the moderators send me into oblivion too! Last weekend we were just seeing the end of the brief Arctic incursion. The models were mostly showing a quick progression to a more Atlantic influence with HP re-establishing itself just to the south or south-east of us. I felt that the strength of the European cold block had been grossly underestimated. I suggested that the fronts across the country would not only stall but we might also see at least a week with a “continental drift” with the cold moving steadily back across the country from the south-east. I did say that a milder outcome was still “probable” beyond D10 but that there were several colder possibilities. I did not expect to see some of the models, led by the ECM, start to hint at an easterly again for several days in the D7 to D10 range, which brought rather more interest to the forum before that option disappeared too. I thought any Atlantic influence would be delayed, perhaps with a messy transition, with a more “zonal” pattern being cut short, provided that further colder options start to show themselves at the other end as we move into February. I did not look beyond D10 (now D3)

I am not trying to score any points here (that’s not my style) but there are occasionally still times when good old fashioned past experience can have its place amongst all the sophisticated tools available today. The models, particularly the GFS and GEM (IMHO) can have a tendency when they pick up on a signal for a broad pattern change to be far too progressive in showing those changes, especially when it is a change from cold to mild. When HP moves across us very slowly following a cold incursion, it often allows the cold air to stagnate over us. The very blocked Atlantic (almost entirely MLB) has been slowing everything down for most of this Winter. Even the well forecast (in terms of timing – not duration) zonal spell between mid-December and Christmas (which was briefly a strong and fast moving flow producing two named storms) was ground to a halt with HP reasserting itself very quickly. Even then, we had to wait another two weeks to see our first cold snap of the year. The cold to our east became entrenched and the receding Arctic cold over the UK was still very close to us. In fact it never left the south-east before returning north-westwards.

I produced another (briefer) post on Wednesday (see page 276) where I demonstrated that the predicted change to the Atlantic influence was being delayed even further. I highlighted the unusually mild weather throughout much of the USA with much weaker thermal contrasts than normal for mid-Winter (between their east coast and the western Atlantic) which was partly responsible for the continuing sluggishness of the meandering Jet Stream across the Atlantic. It now looks like there will be a further delay (perhaps until later this week) although the models are in disagreement on the timing but they all show us warming up eventually – I’ll look at this shortly (below). There are, of course, numerous examples in the past of seemingly deep cold settled conditions over us being blasted away at break neck speed but most of these occur when the Jet Stream suddenly strengthens and starts to move directly over us and right through into much of Europe. On other occasions, a small change in the position of the HP, can allow for much milder Atlantic air to come in “through the back door” with the central Atlantic flow moving northwards, eastwards and then returning southwards again.

The Current Position:

The European cold block has lost some of its potency but may still put up a bit more of a fight. I have been studying the depth and extensiveness of the cold for the last few days. While many on this thread only ever seem to get excited when the chances of snow appears in the outlook (and I’m a huge snow lover too) there are many other fascinating aspects of the weather to look out for, especially in the winter months. The following Meteoceil archive charts show the minimum and maximum surface temperatures over northwest Europe during the last four days:

                 Jan 18th Maxima                                    Jan 18th/19th Minima                              Jan 19th Maxima                                Jan 19th/20th Minima                               Jan 20th Maxima  

           

            Jan 20th/21st Minima                                  Jan 21st Maxima                                 Jan 21st/22nd Minima                               Jan 22nd Maxima                               Jan 22nd/23rd Minima

           

Current European Surface Temperatures - the 3 charts below (vertically on the left) are "live and update frequently - so come back and check for the most recent changes

   http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/temp_eur2.png

Current European Surface pressure (1 mb pressure gradients)                                                 Current European Surface pressure with Fronts (4 mb pressure gradients)

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/pression2_eur2.png         http://www.meteociel.fr/fronts/index.php (link for latest chart)

Current European Satellite Imagery (this is a live chart that updates every few minutes)

    http://neige.meteociel.fr/satellite/anim_ir.gif                      

 

Although the cold is less intense than it was a few days ago, the days have warmed up far more relatively to the nights. A wider area has been seeing maxima above freezing. The interesting bit is the huge diurnal ranges which are much more reminiscent of mid-Spring than mid-Winter. The low sun in mid-January just about has enough strength to warm the surface and a very shallow layer above it in calm conditions. The expression used rather too often by a few TV weather forecasters is for temperatures “to fall like a stone” when it might, for example, only be from 8c to 2c over a 12 hour period. Well, with this cold pool that description would be spot on. Parts of central and northern France, for example, have fallen from late afternoon values of around +7c to +10c to well below freezing just after dusk or less than 3 hours later. The final minimum values have often been well below -10c. This shows that there is plenty of cold left there. Then take the last 2 days down here in Exmouth (I live just over 1 mile inland from the coast but there was a gentle “off-shore” breeze). On Friday it was clear with a max close to 7c in the afternoon sunshine but by mid-evening (about 4 hours later) it was close to -4c. It clouded over later in the night and the temperature had risen to just above freezing by dawn. Saturday was overcast but the maximum was only 2.5c here and with much of the West Country remaining below 3c. This also demonstrates the depth of the cold. Overall, across much of Europe and southern UK, the dew points and relative humidity have been very low during recent days and the air has been particularly dry. In the south-west there was just enough moisture in the air under the thickest cloud on Saturday afternoon to produce a few snow grains – interesting but insignificant.

At the time of writing this part of my report (0800 Sunday) I see that the NetWeather radar shows a few showers moving into the south-west, mostly of rain or sleet near the coast but with a little snow on Dartmoor and a small area of freezing rain in central/east Devon. Ahead of this, I see that an area of much more wintry precipitation has moved slowly north-north-eastwards into Wales and is spreading into the West Midlands where it is falling as snow (the first chart below shows the trough associated with all this). Another area of wintry precipitation is over southwest Scotland with snow in the Glasgow area (see the first chart below with the old cold front there pushing back northwards). This would seem to be the first stage of what might be a very messy break down. Slightly less cold air has now moved into much south of Devon and Cornwall but this is mostly due to a light south-south-westerly breeze which is now “on-shore”. The skies have cleared during this morning again and I think that the deeper cold air to the far east and south-east will drift back westwards during Sunday evening, especially if the flow backs very slightly to just east of south. That shallow area of LP to the west looks like it might fizzle with its fronts stalling or even slightly undercut the ridge to the east. It is not a significant feature and it’s what happens from Monday onwards that should be much more important. Now who said that this is boring weather?

The main point is that the cold might be less intense and less widespread than it was just a few days ago but it is nevertheless still an entrenched cold pool that will take some shifting. If anything, the Euro minima on Sunday morning were somewhat lower and more widespread again. It may well take several pushes of milder air to shift it all eastwards. The current Met Office Fax Charts show the very short term position:

           0z – valid 0600 Sunday                                 12z - valid 1800 Sunday                           12z - valid 1200 Monday                        12z - valid 0000 Tuesday     

                   

UPDATE at 1600:

I have just noted on the “live” European satellite imagery (see the chart above) that the LP area over the Med is starting to exert its influence again more strongly. Look at the push of cloud north-westwards. The HP ridge extending towards south-east England also seems to be strengthening. This does look like (at least temporarily) a renewed push of the European cold block into the UK.

The Week Ahead:  

As I said, although the last few runs from all the models indicate a broad pattern change during this week, the timing and the transition is still very uncertain. The east and south-east of the UK may well hang on to the colder air until quite late in the week while the west is more likely to see milder air several days earlier. It is possible, that a temporary battleground could become established over central or eastern parts (stronger than this morning’s one over the West Country). Remember, with north-west France still cold or very cold, even a southerly airstream with south-south-easterlies will continue to draw in some pretty cold air. So a little leading edge snow is more than possible and something more significant cannot be ruled out completely. Let’s look at the cross model output for mid-week. These are D3 charts for 1200 on Wednesday, January 25th (with the T+ times adjusted for an exact comparison):  

                    GFS 12z T+72                                        UKMO 12z T+72                                          ECM 12z T+72                                    GEM 12z T+72     

        

                   NAVGEM 12z T+72                                      JMA 12z T+72                                GEFS ensemble mean T+72              Met O Fax Charts 0z T+84

       

          GFS 12z T+72 Euro 850s                       ECM 12z T+72 Euro 850s                     GEFS ens mean T+72  Euro 850s

    

 

    GFS 12z T+72 Euro surface temps     GFS 12z T+72 USA surface temps              GEFS  mean ens 12z T+72 Jet Stream 

    

          

Next Weekend:

Now let’s look at all the same charts at D6 for 1200 on Saturday, January 28th:

                 GFS 12z T+144                                        UKMO 12z T+144                                   ECM 12z T+144                                          GEM 12z T+144    

      

                NAVGEM 12z T+144                                       JMA 12z T+144                        GEFS ensemble mean T+144         Met O Fax Charts 0z T+120 (last available)      

      

       GFS 12z T+144 Euro 850s                         ECM 12z T+144 Euro 850s             GEFS ensemble mean T+72  Euro 850s

     

 

  GFS 12z T+144 Euro surface temps      GFS 12z T+144 USA surface temps           GEFS 12z T+144   Jet Stream     

      

 

London 2m Temperature Ensembles 0z January 22nd to 5th February

                        

This very useful ensemble chart highlights the current uncertainties in the model output. Both the NCEP and ECM start off above the mean with many of the ensemble members considerably lower. The mean only slowly rises and is still below 5c up to D5 which looks to be close to the current UKMO model output with the cold block hanging on for longer. The NCEP remains a mild outlier for much of the remaining period. The ECM remains closer to the mean with a slower warm up after D6 but even that becomes a milder outlier from D7 to D10. The mean only really shows temperatures recovering slowly to closer to average levels. This is largely due to nearly half the ensemble members showing much colder conditions persisting well into week 2. This definitely does not suggest that a strong Atlantic push is a forgone conclusion and the next week will be a really fascinating one to watch for developments. 

A Brief Look Further Ahead:

One of my golden rules is not to look at detailed output much beyond a week ahead when the models become less reliable as they tend to explore various options based on very small changes during week one. This applies even more so in the usually much more changeable Winter months, especially when broad scale pattern changes are indicated. This “Winter of Wildcards” has already served up some big surprises, although most of them have not been favourable for prolonged cold and snow. It is far better to take a more general look at the broader pattern and the background signals. There is still a chance that the European cold block may not be pushed away too far east. This now seems unlikely, especially if the much stronger Jet Stream predicted into week 2 runs straight through the UK.

So, if we do see a much more unsettled period under Atlantic influence, how long will it last and will there be further opportunities for colder weather again? The last change from blocked to more zonal was originally predicted by all the models to last for at least two weeks or longer. Very few of the ensemble members suggested a quick return to a blocked pattern again. Then, they finally picked up on the signal and the unsettled Atlantic surge ended after less than 10 days – even less in the south.  

I have seen very few updates and opinions recently from our more seasoned posters (perhaps they are also suffering from model fatigue) in respect of the anticipated strength and path of the Jet Stream, the position and strength of the PV, upper wind strengths, prospects of any amplification etc for the next two weeks and into early February. This includes the ensemble charts from Knocker and John Holmes. I invite you all to update us with your expert analyses.

I have seen the excitement building in respect of a possible SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming). I know that the main posts on this subject are often confined to the strat thread but this is also very much model related in terms of the prospects for the last third of this Winter and into Spring. It will be advisable for the rest of us, not to pin all our remaining hopes on a full on SSW that propagates quickly down to the surface. Even some warming can have quite an impact on the broader pattern and set up. It is also very possible to see cold (and snowy) spells develop without any SSW assistance. Will we see a third Winter month in a row with a mostly blocked Atlantic? Could this produce more HLB rather than incessant MLB? I will not be giving up on this Winter until February 28th!

I have noted that the latest monthly update on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions was published by NOAA and CPC this week on January 16th. Here’s the summary:

“…..ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory. La Niña conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017.  * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.….”

The link to the full discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

and a further link to an interesting paper from the same site:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Most of the last few months have seen either very weak La Nina or close to neutral conditions. This update shows that the most recent weak La Nina will again return to neutral. I know that in extremely simple terms, an El Nino Winter makes an SSW event more likely and a La Nina Winter makes it less likely. I assume that very weak or neutral conditions do not make an SSW event more or less likely. How far in advance can particular ENSO conditions have some sort of an impact? I would assume that the recent and predicted changes may be too late to have much of an impact? I’m out of my depth now, so I’ll leave it to the likes of Tamara, Catacol and the other teleconnection experts to give their views.

Now on to my routine coverage.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:

The last full monthly report was published on January 5th. This is a fascinating read and includes a review of the whole of 2016. Please note that the current ice extent map and the comparison chart to the mean are updated daily and are always of interest. Here’s the link for the latest updates:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

This chart shows the current extent of the sea ice (as on January 21st) in relation to 30 year means.

 Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

The “rate of recovery” during December was very close to a record but, despite this, the overall ice extent is still at record lows and remains just below the previous low set during Winter 2012-13. Overall ice growth stalled again about a week ago but has resumed growth again in the last few days - at least in the Baring and Kara Seas which should see some rapid growth due to some deeper cold setting in, as is demonstrated later in my Svalbaard temperature review).

Arctic Oscillation (AO) 14 Day Ensemble Charts (updated January 22nd): 

The Arctic Oscillation is currently close to neutral but trends very strongly positive during the next week before falling sharply again into week 2. Then several members go negative while the others trend higher again. This demonstrates the very uncertain model output but overall is reflective of practically no HLB.

Note for newbies: The AO index reflects the amount of HLB in the Arctic. A positive +AO reflects very little HLB and a strongly +AO reflects no HLB anywhere in the Arctic. A negative –AO reflects some HLB and a strongly –AO reflects substantial HLB with more intense high pressure and/or more extensive HLB in various parts of the Arctic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS output and will fluctuate in line with that model. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption.

Here's the link which will update automatically with daily charts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

...and here’s the current chart:

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 14 Day Ensemble Charts (updated January 22nd):

The NAO is currently trending from slightly positive to slightly negative later this week before returning to around neutral (with some members still slightly negative and some slightly positive) during week 2. Again a mixed picture reflective of the rather uncertain GFS modelling.

Note for newbies: A neutral NAO index reflects the close to average state of the mean sea level pressure patterns or the “climatological” norm in the North Atlantic. This would equate to the anomalous high pressure in the south, particularly around the Azores and low pressure stretching from off the eastern USA seaboard in a wide band running north-eastwards to the east of Newfoundland, east of Greenland and through Iceland. A positive +NAO occurs when these patterns are stronger than usual (eg: the Azores high is more intense or more widespread and/or the Iceland low is deeper or more widespread than usual). A negative –NAO reflects a weak Azores high and/or less intense Icelandic low pressure. A strongly –NAO would reflect a reversal of the normal patterns with relatively low pressure in the Azores and high pressure further north towards Iceland. A “west based –NAO” (talked about recently) is when the pressure is higher than usual in the western Atlantic such as around the Newfoundland area). An “east based –NAO would indicate higher pressure than usual in our part of the Atlantic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS output and will fluctuate in line with that model. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption

Here's the link which will update automatically with daily charts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml (click on the small chart there)

...and here’s the current chart:

MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 (all updated on January 22nd) + Kyle MacRitchie’s modified chart (by request following last week’s discussions) with the live links below should you wish to check any future changes. 

              UKMO   (7 day forecast):                        ECM (14 day forecast):                 NCEP/GEFS (14 day forecast):                    JMA (9 day forecast):        

 

UKMO:     http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

GEFS:        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:         http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie  

and the link:  https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=140

+ his explanatory notes and further guidance: https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=128

COMMENT:  The big 4 are more in line than they have been for many weeks. They start the MJO off in phase 1 at good amplitude, then move it through phase 2 (UKMO reaches phase 3) before moving into the COD (circle of death). Kyle’s chart is different, moving the MJO at low amplitude through phases 7 and 8 during the next week before entering the COD with one ensemble member re-emerging at phase 5 around Feb. 5th and progressing through phases 6 and 7 still at low amplitude.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover:

I show animations for snow cover and sea ice changes. These are produced by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  When you go to their site you can change the date range and go back over 10 years. You can change the speed and pause on any particular day. These are brilliant, very informative charts and great to play around with. I have re-set the links below to show the last 2 weeks from January 7th  to January 21st but you can change these again on the site:

a) Animated Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Changes (updated by NOAA January 21st):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20170107-20170121

....and here is their current chart:

 

b) Animated Europe and Asia Day Snow Cover  (updated by NOAA January 21st):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ea/20170107-20170121

....and here is their current chart:

BRIEF COMMENT: 

Much of central, eastern and southern European is snow covered. There continues to be well above average snow cover over northern Asia and this has continued to expand southwards and south-westwards. Scandinavia is once again fully snow covered, except the far south (the high central plateaus usually have pretty complete snow cover for most of an average winter). Meanwhile, the extensive snow cover over North America has declined sharply due to the much milder conditions there.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures for January 22nd 1900 (12z – 1300 T+6):

and here’s the link to live charts if you wish to view future changes (updated 4 times a day):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=1&carte=1

Here is my selection of Arctic Regional Temperatures:

The previous readings from my last full report are shown in brackets alongside

North Pole:  -28c (-16c to -24c).

Barents Sea/High Arctic:  -12c to -20c ( -4c to -20c).

Scandinavia:  south +4 to -12c (0c to -4c);  north -12c  to -16c (-8c to -12c).

Northern Siberia: -24c to -40c (-28c to -40c).

North West Russia:  -8c to -20c (-28c to -40c)

North-east Europe: 0c to -8c (-8c to -12c).

Greenland: -20c to -36c (-16c to -40c)

Canadian Arctic: -12c to -32c (-12c to -36c).

Alaska: -12c to -36c (-12c to -28c).

Please note:  For land masses I have tried to focus on readings away from the coasts and away from any mountainous areas.   You can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 to 1700 or about 4 to 5 hours later.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring together with a summary of D1, D5 and D9 values:

Central/West Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

January 23rd   -13c;    January 27th  -14c;       January 31st  -15c.

North-West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-Ålesund/forecast.pdf

January 23rd   -13c;    January 27th  -20c;       January 31st  -22c.

Central South Svalbard – Sveagruva:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

January 23rd   -11c;    January 27th  -19c;       January 31st  -21c.

Please note that the links above will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at quite short range. 

BRIEF COMMENT:

Temperatures have been trending much lower (apart from tomorrow which will be closer to freezing during some quite heavy snowfall) and end up around their lowest levels seen this winter (matching the 2 to 3 days in early December and very briefly last week) and down to or even below their 30 year means which has rarely be seen in the last 3 winters! This injection of deeper cold should help the Arctic sea ice extent to quickly resume its growth in the Baring and Kara Seas where it is still at record lows right now for mid/late-January. To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Svalbard has been seeing “maximum” temperatures often running at 8c to 10c above their long term average throughout most of 2016. This has been the pattern for several years and is reflective of the warming Arctic and record low sea ice cover.

Final Comment:

Despite what many on this thread seem to think, there is still plenty to interest us all!

Next Update:

My next full weekly report should be on Sunday evening, January 29th. It will be a good deal shorter than this marathon effort!

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Guest

[Purga]

Forget the ENS warming trend, I'll stick with the Op run for T2M!

An average of about -6C until 7th Feb will do me very nicely thank you!

 

[Dennis]

Interesting March 2017 by CFS2 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Interesting March 2017 by CFS2 

Feel free to elaborate...

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Interesting March 2017 by CFS2 

As much as I take these with a pinch of salt this would be Sod's law to have lots of NH blocking, March 2013 was a one off so would expect much cold and snow down South from that I doubt. Ideally we need some blocking as soon as poss in Feb to give us the best chance of lying and lasting snow - early Feb looking v v unlikely so lets see where it goes from there.

Edited January 22, 2017 by Ali1977

[Dennis]

Just now, karyo said:

Feel free to elaborate...

On this chart you see High Pressure strengt on the NH - easterlies could grow  bcs LOW pressure input from the Atlantic isnt strong

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Interesting March 2017 by CFS2 

Unfortunately once again even if it was to be just like that we would most likely end up with w/sw winds with that deep trough in the mid Atlantic.....story of this winter....close but no cigar! Wouldn't take much of a shift to make things interesting mind 

[TEITS]

Been a few days since I lasted posted and my word is the Atlantic ramping up. Personally im looking forward to a change from this rather boring pattern.

Only crumb I can offer is in the longer range the models do suggest low pressure systems might take a more S,ly track. The GEM 0Z/12Z has been suggesting this in the medium range.

Whilst this might not be interesting for those in the S, lets remember we have many members in Scotland. Here and possibly N England we could see some wild weather including snowfall if the low/s do track further S.

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Been a few days since I lasted posted and my word is the Atlantic ramping up. Personally im looking forward to a change from this rather boring pattern.

Only crumb I can offer is in the longer range the models do suggest low pressure systems might take a more S,ly track. The GEM 0Z/12Z has been suggesting this in the medium range.

Whilst this might not be interesting for those in the S, lets remember we have many members in Scotland. Here and possibly N England we could see some wild weather including snowfall if the low/s do track further S.

It's also worth pointing out that many of us in Scotland and the north of England don't want 'wild weather', not after last winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Been a few days since I lasted posted and my word is the Atlantic ramping up. Personally im looking forward to a change from this rather boring pattern.

Only crumb I can offer is in the longer range the models do suggest low pressure systems might take a more S,ly track. The GEM 0Z/12Z has been suggesting this in the medium range.

Whilst this might not be interesting for those in the S, lets remember we have many members in Scotland. Here and possibly N England we could see some wild weather including snowfall if the low/s do track further S.

To be fair though, that chart would only give snow for a select few, I agree though I would rather have wild weather, hurricane force winds / tornadoes galore would be better than this boring weather with one caveat, I wouldn't mind high pressure if it did the job properly and got temps below freezing in the day with thick freezing fog and double digit minuses overnight, don't like this half baked attempt.

PS - if people are going to say they don't want severe / extreme weather on this forum then they are in the wrong place cheese.

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

It looks like any unsettled conditions are going to only arrive slowly with the jet edged further north, high pressure seems reluctant to leave the scene too quickly.

Theres even signs in the ECM ensembles of an increase in solutions holding the high further north, with more east/se wind directions showing up for De Bilt.

The flow into the UK is still subject to change so anything with an easterly component is likely to keep things on the cold side especially towards the se until the breakdown.

After this slow breakdown some tentative signs of the jet finally edging further south but with low heights remaining to the north its going to be difficult to get some decent cold air south to engage any low pressure tracking east.

There are a few signs in the higher resolution of a bit more amplitude showing upstream however  its still hard going to see anything properly wintry before February.

That leaves us one month to squeeze in enough interest to make up for the underwhelming winter so far, for some parts there has been a lot more frosts than last winter but its really been yet another terrible December and January for snow.

I know it often feels like after the Lord Mayors show when you're chasing the last winter month to deliver but we've seen in the past that can deliver the goods with the right set up.

Just as you can still hit 30+ in August its still perfectly possible to get ice days and decent snow even later in February so we just have to hope that the possible SSW even if its just a minor one can deliver something.

 

 

[SMU]

Keep an eye on that deep upper air cold pool over the next few days model runs...

18z  NAVGEM

s

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Keep an eye on that deep upper air cold pool over the next few days model runs...

18z  NAVGEM

s

 

 

Now that's what i like to see ' Blow out this epic slug ' and try again ' more like this is i want to see .

February is going to be a good one for all COLD LOVERS .

[Ruzzi]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Keep an eye on that deep upper air cold pool over the next few days model runs...

18z  NAVGEM

s

 

 

Sorry for stating the obvious.... but why is it to be watched? What are we hoping to see? Thanks 

[JBMWeatherForever]

I don't think the battle is over yet. In fact it hasn't even begun. The models always over do the strength of the Atlantic. Will not be surprised to see near term changes (Wed/Thurs) turn into long term big changes !

 

Edited January 23, 2017 by JBMWeatherForever

[Weather-history]

Does anyone get the feeling that the high pressure influence is extending further and further out?

Take ECMWF rainfall accumulation ensembles for Manchester.

The ensemble rainfall acumulation mean for 3rd February for Saturday 0z ECM run was between 35 and 40 mm

By 12z run same day it was between 20 and 25mm

By Sunday 0z, it was about 20mm

By Sunday 12z it was between 15mm and 20mm

Will it continue on the 0z ensembles?

Edited January 23, 2017 by Weather-history