Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Timmytour]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

And your point is?

Just really from that experience to suggest that, when the models are promising and promising things only for our hopes to get dashed and dashed again, both they and the actual weather will eventually find a way of delivering us something....maybe not the whole orchestra but a little ensemble at least! And it always seems to begin from a time of the greatest disappointment. I think we've gone from great hopes of a period of classic winter starting next week to what seems to be dry and a tad under average with a bit of frost. However I'd suggest that come the end of the day something will start showing up within a five or six day timeline that offers the chance once again of snow that stays around, and this time it will deliver.  

[SLEETY]

9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

Im signing off from the MOD for a while as I think for now ive had enough of looking the models only to be let down at the last minute-

 

 

 

Thanks for your informative posts in the winter season ,written in a very easy way to understand ,it's been a frustrating winter so far ,close but no cigar,I still think we will see one spell of decent cold  and snowy weather this winter,maybe in early Feb as you mention ,the ukmo model been on top form this winter.

Edited January 14, 2017 by phil nw.
Long quote snipped

[kumquat]

6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Just really from that experience to suggest that, when the models are promising and promising things only for our hopes to get dashed and dashed again, both they and the actual weather will eventually find a way of delivering us something....maybe not the whole orchestra but a little ensemble at least! And it always seems to begin from a time of the greatest disappointment. I think we've gone from great hopes of a period of classic winter starting next week to what seems to be dry and a tad under average with a bit of frost. However I'd suggest that come the end of the day something will start showing up within a five or six day timeline that offers the chance once again of snow that stays around, and this time it will deliver.  

OK thanks, I get it now. You think that the models will start to show something (cold) more quickly than they are showing now. Like they hang on our words and hopes. Dash them and then rewrite their own algorithm to be more what we would like to see, at our chagrin?

Or, basically, you think they will just change from the crud they are showing right now, to something better, because that's what you hope?

[A Frayed Knot]

Colder Northerlies Poised for Next weekend ' South East stays cold through much of next week ' So still cold to be honest and none of that Horrible mild mush and Rain from the South West ' Game on ' Winter is just Cranking up ..

[Kentspur]

Still snow on the ground in the countryside of kent here and other areas surrey etc. Is there still a chance of 1

Snow to rain tomorrow morning for far eastern areas?

[That ECM]

These are t144. The area of interest for me is NW and the removing of the pv east. This would allow the high to drift NW from near or over us and thus leading to NE flow. It is not difficult to see why met are unsure of the outcome later in the month. Where this high goes will have a huge impact on our little island. All to play for moving forward. 

Hope ecm has a similar idea as this will give more confidence in general theme and has been the best at spotting the general overall picture recently.

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by That ECM

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

ECM shows significant upgrades for cold prospects this morning.

I have been reading this thread for 4 years and I have often read people say "get the cold in place first and will follow". I think the next chapter in this winter saga is being modelled by ECM this morning.

This at T216

By T240 we are being attacked from the east too.

Edited January 14, 2017 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Gustywind]

7 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

ECM shows significant upgrades this morning.

This at T192:

img=http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2080/ECH1-216_tth3.GIF

 

Yes but note the 850s - no cold air in place. This was why it was so crucial to get the initial high further north and at least get an easterly continental drift in place to keep upper air cooler. We'd be looking at a significant snow event for the UK in FI on the ECM if we had this in place.

UKMO also has high slap bang over UK at t120. GFS slightly better with a very weak continental feed which at least keeps 850s sub zero - just. 

Is it too much to ask for small movements north of this high so we at least get the gentle easterly air?

Edited January 14, 2017 by Gustywind

[mcweather]

Nice Easterly over Shetland at 240 on the ECM hopefully it will verify a good deal further south like the one we were supposed to be getting this coming week.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

6 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Yes but note the 850s - no cold air in place. This was why it was so crucial to get the initial high further north and at least get an easterly continental drift in place to keep upper air cooler. We'd be looking at a significant snow event for the UK in FI on the ECM if we had this in place.

True about the 850s but I will take this morning's charts over yesterday's offering.

[The PIT]

Well the atlantic shuts down but high pressure needs to be further west and the lack of cold uppers over us is a concern.

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well the atlantic shuts down but high pressure needs to be further west and the lack of cold uppers over us is a concern.

but the whole of continental europe (including even portugal!) goes into deep freeze where does the cold come from and would would happen with any precipitation, turn to hail or sleet?

Edited January 14, 2017 by ArHu3

[winterof79]

Trouble is the bar is set too high in here, nowadays, which leads to early disappointment. The constant search for an Easterly is going to wear you down.Plenty of hard frosts this winter ,so far, and a cold snap at present with more frosts to come.

Nothing wrong with this chart which shows colder air to our N/E pushing down whilst a depression tries to move in from the Atlantic. Icelandic heights too

I posted this yesterday but I think the majority were on the East coast with their Binos searching for deep cold

And for those who are worried that winter is over here is a reminder of the METOs buzz phrase for this winter in the longer term: I quote

"Confidence is very low in details as we head towards.........."

Edited January 14, 2017 by winterof79

[IDO]

It remains a fluid upcoming period with models not agreeing on the source of energy from the Atlantic height rises. GFS has now moved to yesterday's ECM take, where the wave at D7 builds towards a ML high just SW of Iceland:

GFS D7  ECM   GEM

Where as now ECM moves that wave incoming from the Med, whilst GEM has both! Of course all three scenarios will lead to different outcomes in FI. The GEFS are a mix of all three so it is difficult to be confident of where we are after D7.

As was suggested yesterday, the high from the Scandi ridge, as inevitably it is was overblown, so we always get downgrades as we move towards T0. The core surface high has sunk with each run but today there is good cross model agreement to its placement. The GEFS mean at D5 a solid guide:

  London ens

So for London about 2c below average uppers from the slack flow. We rely on faux cold from the high to get the below average temps. Dry and feeling cold IMBY. No point looking at the GEFS after D7 as the scatter re synoptic is high, but it is clear that if we want to get cold air in then ECM needs to flip back to the GFS wave attack (GEFS 11 & 17 show the cold potential for that pattern) as that at the moment has good potential for period of cold.

 

[winterof79]

I knew something was bugging me about the 00z. I was just looking at the temps on this for my area

The GFS OP is on the mild side for 850s next weekend so I looked at the GEFS which have a colder look ,and interesting outcomes.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=180

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180

Another 3/4 day below average period at the end of the week is a distinct possibility.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by winterof79

[Luke Attwood]

1 hour ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

ECM shows significant upgrades for cold prospects this morning.

I have been reading this thread for 4 years and I have often read people say "get the cold in place first and will follow". I think the next chapter in this winter saga is being modelled by ECM this morning.

This at T216

By T240 we are being attacked from the east too.

Its the same as always a near miss for the UK,the cold air always to far out east.also notice the Azores high coming back in. We are just in southeast winds in nothing particularly cold.

[nick sussex]

ECM tease yet again, it has a very far west negative NAO but somehow manages to develop a high pressure lobe to the ne. In terms of mainland Europe and the lack of cold uppers at this range that could still change but we'd still need more trough disruption to get more energy se.

The GFS goes in a different direction with that separate high pressure lobe to the nw and is less interested in developing high pressure over Canada.

The potentially more snowy set up would be the ECM with those corrections south but again we're dealing with a low margin for error there.

Against what normally happens we have seen overnight a small northwards shift in the high after several days of southwards shifts.

Because of the disagreements between the ECM and GFS confidence is very low on what happens towards the end of next week and into the weekend.

[Summer Sun]

Mean heading back towards -5 for a time in London

Bar early next week ground temps stay below 5c for the Capital

[mulzy]

No change in the extended eps in the day 12-15 period.  Looks pretty zonal to me with mild south-westerlies (classic positive NAO signature).

[Johnp]

8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No change in the extended eps in the day 12-15 period.  Looks pretty zonal to me with mild south-westerlies (classic positive NAO signature).

After the past few weeks model performance, I'm really not going to worry about what some 12-15 day ensembles are saying...

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Johnp said:

After the past few weeks model performance, I'm really not going to worry about what some 12-15 day ensembles are saying...

Yes,  let's hope they are wrong this time John but we are due a pretty wet spell 

fwiw, some windows are opening up in that important 8/11 day timeframe where the background pattern could be forced onto a different route and keep nw Europe on the cold side but zonal mild remains strongly favoured late week 2

[TEITS]

26 minutes ago, Johnp said:

After the past few weeks model performance, I'm really not going to worry about what some 12-15 day ensembles are saying...

Absolutely right.

The model output is far too interesting to stay away plus I acted like an idiot the other day. Apologies everyone.

Lets compare todays 0Z ECM with yesterday mornings.

Considering the differences are we really going to be worried about what the ensembles say.

What makes next weekend into the following week so exciting is the uncertainity. We could have very mild SW,lys or bitterly cold NE,lys. We could even have the situation where S England is bathed in mild temps whereas N England is experiencing blizzards. The fact is we just do not know yet!

Edited January 14, 2017 by TEITS

[stewfox]

7 hours ago, kumquat said:

OK thanks, I get it now. You think that the models will start to show something (cold) more quickly than they are showing now. Like they hang on our words and hopes. Dash them and then rewrite their own algorithm to be more what we would like to see, at our chagrin?

Or, basically, you think they will just change from the crud they are showing right now, to something better, because that's what you hope?

Crud ?

I think models like the GFS can and do flip flop.

I had settling snow yesterday and that wasn't forecast 24  hrs before.

Marginal corrections can make all the difference. The -10c 850s are across the channel for most of next week and  not just showing  in northern Scandinavia 

3c here -7c in Belgium at the moment for wednesday midday . hardly 10c across the whole of western Europe.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by stewfox

[Ice Day]

12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Absolutely right.

The model output is far too interesting to stay away plus I acted like an idiot the other day. Apologies everyone.

What makes next weekend into the following week so exciting is the uncertainity. We could have very mild SW,lys or bitterly cold NE,lys. We could even have the situation where S England is bathed in mild temps whereas N England is experiencing blizzards. The fact is we just do not know yet!

Welcome back TEITS, we all have our bad days!!!

The bit in bold is the big point at the moment, there is clearly a transition going on which the models are not yet getting a proper handle on, but we COULD end up with with something notable that is not even been shown at 168.  A few hints starting to turn up but I reckon by tomorrows 12z's we'll start to get a good idea where the next 7-14 days is heading.  Maybe we will throw a double 6 for once?

Edited January 14, 2017 by Ice Day

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Absolutely right.

The model output is far too interesting to stay away plus I acted like an idiot the other day. Apologies everyone.

Lets compare todays 0Z ECM with yesterday mornings.

Considering the differences are we really going to be worried about what the ensembles say.

What makes next weekend into the following week so exciting is the uncertainity. We could have very mild SW,lys or bitterly cold NE,lys. We could even have the situation where S England is bathed in mild temps whereas N England is experiencing blizzards. The fact is we just do not know yet!

These ECM charts are classic example of how our little patch is so exposed to shortwave patterns within the wider broad scale flow. 

The general theme is similar between the two charts but centre the high in a slightly different place and it makes a big difference locally for us.

All we can do is hope,for once, that we get "lucky" within the wider pattern that the ECM is picking up on.