Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Ali1977]

So not great afternoon charts, I hope the ECM doesn't start backing off - still looks really cold at the surface though

[Chris K]

23 minutes ago, Scott M said:

I really don't understand some people in here we all new an easterly wasn't going to happen it's been like this since the start of winter so why would it change now. the high pressure that has been sitting over Europe for the past month that hasn't really moved and if it does it just goes back to the same place within a few days. We all know how stubborn high pressure can be. It can be rather frustrating reading some comments as a newbie that some of the experienced people in hear get excited about one set of runs by saying ( this is the best run the 6z have produced so far) and a couple of hours later when the 12z come out they say it's flat it's too far south moan moan. At the end of the day this easterly that was showing signs of establishing its self was always going to be short lived and pretty pathetic particularly for where I live the only real place that would see any cold would be the south east and that is no use to me. Sorry if use think I am having a moan maybe people should look at the models for the present or up until a more reliable time frame and not so much into FI. at least you want be coming back for another punch in the mouth it hurts. 

Firstly, welcome, but sorry but I must respectively disagree a tad with your post. We had high pressure covering a large swathe of Europe for most of December, yes, but then this shifted towards our SW allowing a trough to develop towards Southern Europe.  Then there has recently been consistently modelled eveolutions of heights moving across to our NE and it is only the more recent runs which perhaps show a differring solution to a direct bitter easterly flow. The overall pattern remains similar and it is going to take a while longer to see how this will pan out.

I said yesterday that there are many options on the table from here, but let's just hope it is not a return to a slug azores/euro high. I don't think anyone can say "the easterly was always going to be short lived and pathetic' because it was not even in a reliable timeframe yet! It could indeed go pete tong... this is the UK after all where micro changes can have a massive effect on our surface conditions. However personally I think we are in the best position we have been in this winter so far. 

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by Chris K

[SizzlingHeat]

Not surprised the models have backed down somewhat. I never bought the ecm easterly. The gfs was just too damn stubborn. The good news is it looks chilly with cold clear nights and hopefully so bright sunny days intespersed with some cold cloudy damp days. Better than mild dross but not quite the easterly we were ever so expecting. Still time for change but I can't see it personally. Its amazing how the balearic islands are likely to be potentially colder with higher chance of snow than here. Make that most of Spain.  Probably their coldest outbreak in many many years. Looks good for the Sierra nevada ski resorts southern Spain. 

[snowingtequila]

43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Take heart, cold lovers, about where the surface high may settle during next week.

The 3 anomaly charts, pretty similar to one another, all suggest the centre of gravity of the upper ridge and +ve anomalies will be such that a feed out of Europe is the most likely. Apart from perhaps the far NW on one of them.

I think a few people could do with reading John Holmes' posts. His use of the anomoly charts is generally very accurate and although it doesn't give an exact view of what is going to happen at the surface it gives an idea of the upper air and stops is getting so uptight about every operational run

[bluearmy]

36 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Least they don't show the GEM soloution but what does the chart below show as i'm a novice to understanding what it means

it shows that at day 5, the gefs members are pretty solid on the upper air pattern they show. not surface features, but Z500 contours. very little deviation from what the mean shows.  there is a smallish variance in an arc just to our se which could be slightly lower than the mean or higher. given that you can view the individual gefs members, it should be easy to deduce in which direction the variance is. 

[ghoneym]

Couple of GEFS ensembles to keep the coldies happy.....to be honest the ensembles don't look that bad, slack easterlies galore. 

    

 

 

[The Weather Dragon]

I never bought the raging easterly scenario - i did mention at the beginning  of the week that a mid lat/u.k. high was the most probable outcome following the northerly. At least it will be cold with frosts. Where do we go from midweek onwards ?

Edited January 12, 2017 by Jonathan Evans

[bradymk]

ECM still the most amplified out of GFS and UKMO at +72, although not quite as much as it's 12z run yesterday

[tight isobar]

Decent heights profile ..height format is v-good lets just hope ecm' has further north ward cutting latter frames....

[radiohead]

ECM looking better than the UKMO at T120. Similar to GFS, will also probably end up a little too far south but I'm interested in seeing what happens after that...

[Paul_1978]

24 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not surprised the models have backed down somewhat. I never bought the ecm easterly. The gfs was just too damn stubborn. The good news is it looks chilly with cold clear nights and hopefully so bright sunny days intespersed with some cold cloudy damp days. Better than mild dross but not quite the easterly we were ever so expecting. Still time for change but I can't see it personally. Its amazing how the balearic islands are likely to be potentially colder with higher chance of snow than here. Make that most of Spain.  Probably their coldest outbreak in many many years. Looks good for the Sierra nevada ski resorts southern Spain. 

Thanks for the insight but I don't think I've seen anyone on here expecting a raging easterly across the UK. The ECM is still looking good up to T+120. 

Personally I would like to get the cold air established and difficult to shift. Once that happens and you get systems bumping into the cold air and being deflected (hopefully over or near the UK) then that's when we'll get our snow. That's what I'll be looking for anyway. 

[ribster]

15 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

I never bought the raging easterly scenario - i did mention at the beggining of the week that a mid lat/u.k. high was the most probable outcome following the northerly. At least it will be cold with frosts. Where do we go from midweek onwards ?

Not sure anything is on or off yet is it, at 6/7 days away? ECM hasn't finished rolling yet, GFS 18z to come and another day of runs tomorrow...

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

I never bought the raging easterly scenario

A raging easterly was never mentioned by anyone, we wernt looking at a January 1987..still looks increasingly cold next week and we may see upgrades...enjoy the snow guys

[radiohead]

Nick down in France is going to love this ECM once again!

[Paul_1978]

25 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

I never bought the raging easterly scenario - i did mention at the beginning  of the week that a mid lat/u.k. high was the most probable outcome following the northerly. At least it will be cold with frosts. Where do we go from midweek onwards ?

Just because you said it doesn't mean everyone has to agree with you. We all enjoy the debate and the enjoyment of the cold spell is only just beginning. 

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A raging easterly was never mentioned by anyone, we wernt looking at a January 1987..still looks increasingly cold next week and we may see upgrades...enjoy the snow guys

True Frosty. But........

a fair few posters in last few days posted the legendary 13 Jan 87 charts on here in last few days.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

South east England still in with a chance of snow showers..

I don't like the 850's evolution from 144 to 168.

EDIT : you might want to stick your neck out the window now, you might be pleasantly surprised.

Edited January 12, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

True Frosty. But........

a fair few posters in last few days posted the legendary 13 Jan 87 charts on here in last few days.

More in hope than expectation

[The Weather Dragon]

The cut off northern arm of the jet stream is just to powerful to allow sustained high latitude blocking - thus we end up with a uk high with a slack easterly/south easterly component - it will be cold but nothing of significance - ECM is backtracking now

[The PIT]

Slow drift now towards the GFS idea with the cold air going to the south of us. ECM keeps it further north but main thrust is still too far south for us. So yes we will get an east south easterly flow but probbaly grey skies and uninteresting weather.

[ANYWEATHER]

It was the Ecm which picked up the Easterly flow first, so hats off too this model, Gfs  has made an embarrassing  turnaround. As for the exact flow from the east next week lots of variations as shown by gfs 06z and 12z today....

[ribster]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

The cut off northern arm of the jet stream is just to powerful to allow sustained high latitude blocking - thus we end up with a uk high with a slack easterly/south easterly component - it will be cold but nothing of significance - ECM is backtracking now

UK high? The centre is over Eastern Europe!

[Duane S.]

Happy days. Easterly still very much on for many. ECM (as per normal) looks to have nailed the evolution.

Looks (subject to change) drier and further south (the high) than we may have hoped for at one stage but that could change yet and there's what's follows next as well...

 

[radiohead]

Well it's certainly not warm....but it's not very exciting either. Cold and dry, but at least it has the potential to be a starting point for something more interesting down the line.

[blizzard81]

Just now, s4lancia said:

Happy days. Easterly still very much on for many. ECM (as per normal) looks to have nailed the evolution.

Looks (subject to change) drier and further south (the high) than we may have hoped for at one stage but that could change yet and there's what's follows next as well...

 

To class this as an easterly is incredibly flattering. It is an easterly only in the technical sense, not in the classical sense. The 12z runs have been another downgrade. The downgrades on the easterly began yesterday. This was very clear to see.