Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Zakos]

even at 96 hours the mid atlantic ridge is significantly stronger on the ECM  than the GFS

Fantastic ECM at 144, easterly potential is very much still alive based on that chart.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Zakos

[chris55]

Azores Low more developed on the 12z ECM @144 compared to the 00z, could well undercut. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by chris55

[seabreeze86]

The consistency from the ECM is astounding run after run with only slight differences and more importantly bringing the easterly at the same time and not delaying it.

144hrs looking primed

168hrs is epic 

Edited January 10, 2017 by seabreeze86

[AWD]

It's a bloody nice change to see these charts at T120/T144 rather than the customary T240.  

The EC once again, providing an easterly tease in the semi reliable timefame.

[tight isobar]

Very clean evolution. 

The wrap round is evolutionary perfection. .

Formation just needs a kick north...

next frames will be v-interesting. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by tight isobar

[Mucka]

JMA 144 

[Panayiotis]

Lovely looking ECM (left) at 144hrs, differences though between the UKMO (right) 144hrs:

Heres to hoping its correct with its evolution, as it produces one hell of a 168hrs chat:

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Panayiotis

[Jonan92]

 

Amazing

[chris55]

Yes please!!!

[frosty ground]

Ecm 12z out doing the 0z.... wow

 

 

[Met4Cast]

ECM sticking with the Easterly evolution. I feel like we're never going to get an answer going forward. 

[NorthernRab]

At 168 on the ECM, low pressure undercuts the high which leads to a potent easterly for England and Wales. 

 

 

For my neck of the woods, worth noting that the ECM evolution would potentially see Scotland remaining in the freezer following the heavy snow of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Some frigid overnight lows possible across the snowfields of Scotland. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by NorthernRab

[Day 10]

Voila!

[radiohead]

12Z ECM is very close to being a special run here...It's great to see this at T168 and not T240.

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

At 168 on the ECM, low pressure undercuts the high which leads to a potent easterly for England and Wales. 

 

Well strictly speaking it doesn't undercut (yet), but the block is robust, and the Italy Low is doing the work  

Edited January 10, 2017 by chris55

[nick sussex]

OMG wonderful stuff from the ECM at T168hrs. They need to have an emoticon for about to faint!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Well strictly speaking it doesn't undercut, but the block is robust, and the Italy Low is doing the work  

And, more importantly, look at the vertical advection on western flank!

[radiohead]

Just now, nick sussex said:

OMG wonderful stuff from the ECM at T168hrs. They need to have an emoticon for about to faint!

Looking superb for you in France Nick!

[NorthernRab]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well strictly speaking it doesn't undercut (yet), but the block is robust, and the Italy Low is doing the work  

Very strictly speaking indeed! 

192

Edited January 10, 2017 by NorthernRab

[The Northern Ramper]

The ECM is beautiful and every day it's 24 hours nearer.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

192 hours. Lovely stuff.

[Day 10]

Doooooooooozy!!!

[Long haul to mild]

4 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Lovely looking ECM (left) at 144hrs, differences though between the UKMO (right) 144hrs:

Heres to hoping its correct with its evolution, as it produces one hell of a 168hrs chat:

 

Sorry to ask a silly question but still learning. What happened to that quite deep looking Azores low on the T144 chart? It seems to have virtually gone by T168, yet the High has been pushed Northwards?

[KTtom]

Shame the uppers aren't a bit better...but hey ho I've seen worse charts.

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]