Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Ali1977]

Backtrack from UKMO towards a GFS that didn't get better, however the ECM still looks good at 144 with cold still in by Sunday, and a possible Easterly next few frames

[Long haul to mild]

Big disappointment from the UKMO 0Z

We have gone from a nice clean Northerly flow with amplification on the 12Z

 

to a modified NW flow and a rounded high with too much energy to the North on the 0Z

 

ECM still has some amplification at the weekend

 

but it's now on its own of the big three.

Need a switch back on the 12Z UKMO to stop this being a two day cold snap then a return to Westerlies and the Azores slug. Sigh. 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Backtrack from UKMO towards a GFS that didn't get better, however the ECM still looks good at 144 with cold still in by Sunday, and a possible Easterly next few frames

Getting there -

[SMU]

Morning

whilst it seemingly hasnt been the 'best' ever morning - the models have at least found a bit of a meeting point - With T120 showing the shortwave over southern greenland being on the edge of the inflection point-

The ECM / JMA (84) / NAVGEM/ GEM are sharp, the UKMO / GFS are flatter- however all have the ridge behind it at varying degrees of amplitude-

Its not that bad to be fair- as ever as much inflection as possible needed to retain the cold -ECM/NAVGEM the best-

S

Edited January 9, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Great wedge of high pressure been cut off as we move forward to our north.  Looks like a sliding trough about to slice through the main high making it cut off to our north, should be a great fi

Edit : what a mess at 192 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Stozzy]

 

[knocker]

The ecm also seems to be paying homage to last night's anomalies

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS control is very good considering the back drop of this morning's operationals and about as good as we can hope for IMO

240 hrs...

[Jason M]

Regardless of Matt Hugo's comments above (and not saying he's wrong), it does now seem that the easterly is dead. In truth it always looked unlikely as most seasoned watchers were going for a mid Lat high / sinker type scenario. I suspect GFS is wrong to flatten out the flow quite as much but having looked through the GEFS this morning and last night it isn't without support in doing so. 

most likely now would be a slight move towards GFS from ECM over the next couple of days. So that leaves us with a punchy 2-4 day cold snap/spell. Imby I suspect this will amount to a few frosts and a bit of cold rain ,but that's life.

for those that get snow, enjoy as it looks like a return to Decembers pattern might well be what follows. 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

Now this chart can be said to have true potential. It's about as far from an easterly that you can get.

[Ali1977]

A pretty good 240 mean from GEFS  with a few easterlies now showing, as the control run posted above shows.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Ali1977

[Long haul to mild]

After a promising T168 chart,

 

 

ECM FI goes all wrong and squashes the high back into Europe, leaving us in a W or SW flow.

 

 

So a bit of a downbeat morning but still some hope for next week as the models clearly haven't nailed down  the pattern properly yet.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Newberryone]

Gone slightly the way of the pear again, possibly, this time with regards to potential longevity or more a case of lack of. Anyhow, the Irish Met office this morning in their output are going for a bitterly cold late Wed - Sat followed already by less cold conditions from Sun as antycylonic conditions move in from the Atlantic. Which basically means we can only hope the likes of the gfs control in its latter stages is onto something. 

[Skyraker]

That lobe of lp on the ecm 240.... Is it going over the top or will it head se and slice the high in two?

Is that even possible?

Edited January 9, 2017 by Skyraker

[bluearmy]

Clearly more GEFS members interested in an easterly which is encouraging but if it does verify, it's likely to be pretty slack, especially to begin with. 

uncertain

[frosty ground]

13 hours ago, frosty ground said:

The ECM could easily follow the GFS or the UKM but it could be all different by the morning. 

A northwesterly spell is likely to happen Thursday onwards leading to snow for large ares of the country especially the further north and west you are. That bit looks nailed on. I don't see an easterly but I do see several days of high dominated settled weather with plenty of sunshine with temps suppressed more so the further south and east you are.

This is what I said last night just before the ECM. The initial cold snap is nailed on with the possibility of snow. The easterly looks dead and to be fair it's never looked anything more than a corpse.

 

[SteveB]

40 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Regardless of Matt Hugo's comments above (and not saying he's wrong), it does now seem that the easterly is dead. In truth it always looked unlikely as most seasoned watchers were going for a mid Lat high / sinker type scenario. I suspect GFS is wrong to flatten out the flow quite as much but having looked through the GEFS this morning and last night it isn't without support in doing so. 

most likely now would be a slight move towards GFS from ECM over the next couple of days. So that leaves us with a punchy 2-4 day cold snap/spell. Imby I suspect this will amount to a few frosts and a bit of cold rain ,but that's life.

for those that get snow, enjoy as it looks like a return to Decembers pattern might well be what follows. 

Even though people will probably think this view is being  pessimistic, for me it's likely to be the out come!

The models are falling into line, expect further adjustments through out the day leading to a two day cold spell with a sinking high afterwards (which might lead to another few frosty days)

 

 

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

The interest for me revolves around thur/ fri - gfs is a major worry as it introduces a mild sector into the flow making things marginal. I think ecm/ukmo look a touch colder so next few runs will be interesting.

 

[Gavin Hannah]

I think the GFS should be renamed DGH - Down Grading Hopes. Still compared to the abysmal December, the fact that we are now within 48 hours of a polar shot is stained glass windowin remarkable. Cold dreary high pressure has been thoroughly depressing, just about as bad as a year of intense Atlantic weather. My own opinion is that years and years of fine tuning have meant that the GFS is prone to downgrading as 99% of the time, that's what happens. Law of averages right? Until someone can shut off that damn jet stream, then we are stuck in purgatory i'm afraid. On the flip side, as im a glass half full guy, I fully expect the GFS to start behaving from the 06Z run onwards and start developing Easterlies....

[Duane S.]

The easterly is still on. The form horse was always looking to be that Italy, Greece etc got the deeper cold (initially at least), with the South to be under an initial slack PC flow. The ops have re-inforced that.

Reference the ECM... Very surprised we didn't end up with a better FI from that ridge thrown up on the +168. Albeit, I was surprised to see that strength of ridge in the first place following the +144!

Edited January 9, 2017 by s4lancia

[That ECM]

• The Easterly is the outsider at the moment but I wouldn't write it off yet. The timescales involved are huge in weather terms and there is some support. Drift that high a little further NE and its game on.

Model viewing at its best at the mo. Short term interest and fine detail to be resolved, longer term interest in the general theme.

[seabreeze86]

For what's it's worth the GEM ends up giving us a easterly, plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet.

What's bothering me more is the ever increasing mild sector in the northerly flow on Friday I hope this moves further East with time

[joggs]

49 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

After a promising T168 chart,

 

 

ECM FI goes all wrong and squashes the high back into Europe, leaving us in a W or SW flow.

 

 

So a bit of a downbeat morning but still some hope for next week as the models clearly haven't nailed down  the pattern properly yet.

I don't know why people are surprised.

There's never really been any sign of trough disruption in the Atlantic to get under the high.

Always looked like energy spinning around over the top top tbh.

That said,a 2,3 day cold spell with snow for some,especially more nw.

 

[bluearmy]

The eps are a tad further south than the 12z with the upper ridge anf anomoly which puts them bit closer to the last two ops. 

Still a probably slack contintental feed into the south of the uk at least 

[Dennis]

GEM model ideas later this month

Edited January 9, 2017 by Dennis