Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Great minds think alight

I do hope you mean 'alike', Timbo...Self-immolation could be a tad premature - the ECM is not that bad!

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wouldn't mind that if we cant have snow, I wonder if Nick L or Ian know what windspeeds are like on the SW Flank of that, it could deepen even further by the time it hits land judging by the track, the bad news is the very strongest winds would be too far North for me to be able to experience hurricane force winds.

 

Well over 100mph - the purple is around 105mph

[nick sussex]

Well finally something to talk about in the outputs. Hardly earth shattering but looking towards the Pacific region just the first signs of a bit more amplitude in the flow.

Some bizarre upper air temps shown. You have some +8s towards Scandi and colder uppers over north Africa. Those Iberian low heights and ridge from Russia combine to prevent the PV over Greenland inflicting a mild sw'erly flow. There is some trough disruption but not enough with the current strength of that PV.

Still too far out to know what Christmas prospects might be but certainly not time to throw the towel in yet.

 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Well over 100mph - the purple is around 105mph

Yep, a very unusually large swathe of 100mph+ gusts out at sea. Very nasty.

[MR EXTREMES]

Good evening the charts are pretty much the same as earlier.

Mid lat block cool surface temperature possible frost at night not a chance the zonal train come in at least 10 days or more.

 

I wouldn't rule out a southeast flow around Christmas. 

But let's not forget it can get pretty cold from the northwest at times and even westerly winds can be cold.

And the stronger build of heights idea is a very interesting observation.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nick L said:

Yep, a very unusually large swathe of 100mph+ gusts out at sea. Very nasty.

Would they be similar at surface level? should be very strong still shouldn't they? - an absolute cracker of a storm.

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wouldn't mind that if we cant have snow, I wonder if Nick L or Ian know what windspeeds are like on the SW Flank of that, it could deepen even further by the time it hits land judging by the track, the bad news is the very strongest winds would be too far North for me to be able to experience hurricane force winds.

No thanks, last Christmas was ruined by the terrible floods for a lot of people, that  on ECM happening just before Christmas.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[johnholmes]

very sad News about Ian McCaskill. May he Rest in Peace. Always loved his forecasts. Came across as a genuinely lovely man. 

he was

[legritter]

I met Ian McCaskill ,a very  nice person and very  knowledgeable in Meteorology it came across in his weather presentations ,one of the Best .

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

No thanks, last Christmas was ruined by the terrible floods for a lot of people, that  on ECM happening just before Christmas.

Prefer snow by miles but would rather have severe weather of any type than nothingness bland, frost would be ok if it was severe like Dec 1991 in the midlands,

Nick L - you talk about that  being nasty but you have on your signature - Tornadoes seen - 28!!!     I would love to have my roof took off by a tornado.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Prefer snow by miles but would rather have severe weather of any type than nothingness bland, frost would be ok if it was severe like Dec 1991 in the midlands,

Nick L - you talk about that  being nasty but you have on your signature - Tornadoes seen - 28!!!     I would love to have my roof took off by a tornado.

Agree with WH, and I would prefer nothingness even if not all that cold

[Evening thunder]

Why is it that when someone on a weather forum expresses an interest/enthusiasm for active or severe weather it's always met with the same old posts that have to say no thanks/I'd prefer nothingness and imply that they shouldn't have that preference.

I mean it's a weather forum, aren't we allowed to show interest/enthusiasm for the weather these days? (unless it's wishing for equally disruptive/severe cold and snow, that's ok...lol (and don't get me wrong, I wish for that too)).

Sorry O/T as with the above posts

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Evening thunder

[MR EXTREMES]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

very sad News about Ian McCaskill. May he Rest in Peace. Always loved his forecasts. Came across as a genuinely lovely man. 

he was

He is one of the greatest very sad.

[karlos1983]

I'm very much in the rather have severe weather than boring nothingness.

however, having experienced being 2 blocks away from a tornado, I doubt very much you would want your roof ripped off by one. Would love to chase them though! 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Gutted to hear of the passing of Ian M. I hope the mods will allow me to post this memorable forecast in memoriam to the great man. 

 

I remember this well. 

One of the greatest forecasts of all time. Pure winter joy in the utterly coldest extreme. Colder, colder, colder and then bang with the snow and it just kept coming. Spot on, too. Yes, one of the great forecasters. Let's hope for a countryfile forecast like this one on Sunday in his honour!

[bluearmy]

As Ian has mentioned, the end of the gfs sits broadly with the last ec 46 for xmas/new year

the subsequent gefs/eps have done little to change this potential solution. 

If the 12z eps are consistent with the 00z run then I believe week 3 on the ec 46 later tonight could be quite an exciting set up for coldies. 

The 12z soon out 

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Prefer snow by miles but would rather have severe weather of any type than nothingness bland, frost would be ok if it was severe like Dec 1991 in the midlands,

Nick L - you talk about that  being nasty but you have on your signature - Tornadoes seen - 28!!!     I would love to have my roof took off by a tornado.

They are terrifying. Back in early August 2014 there was a torrential thunderstorm (i believe it produced flooding in Bradford) however passing over my street was a visible rotating cloud with visible vorcities standing vertically within it. As much as i love extreme weather it was far too close a call for me. 

[Scandinavian High.]

I would love see this come off I'm in south east London I'm sure this could bring blizzards if the cold pool moved in you never no with the weather. 

Edited December 12, 2016 by abbie123

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

A very warm, kind and popular man who will be sorely missed. I had the opportunity to work with him on one of the programmes in the BBC2 series "The Essential Guide to Weather" broadcast in 1999. Ian had just retired as a BBC Weatherman and hosted the series. I used to run the weather station in the Rickmansworth frost hollow and Philip Eden recommended that there should be a feature on this in one of the programmes. I did a short presentation by my Stevenson's screen while Ian did an experiment to demonstrate temperature inversions by digging a slanting channel in a flower bed and pouring dry ice down it - it was typically amusing! Wonderful memories.

Gosh. Amazing. And Rickmansworth too (I spent most my childhood there & in Chorleywood!).

Re modelling, a bit of context but I make no judgement on forecast confidence(!). The Dec-issue Glosea JFM signal is skewed by F-M. Jan actually looks quite blocked. Strat PV consolidation as per medium range may not necessarily prove a foregone conclusion all of next month... in short, any 'winter is over' postings based on present deterministic modelling need to wait a few more weeks to receive any final stamp of validity :-)

[Woollymummy]

1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Gutted to hear of the passing of Ian M. I hope the mods will allow me to post this memorable forecast in memoriam to the great man. 

 

I remember this well. 

RIP Ian McCaskill, we loved his weather forecasts, especially when they brought our most memorable winter weather, and our igloo.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM still showing a much more active jetstream across the Atlantic with a nasty storm modelled at day 10, yet that high over northern Europe seems to want to stay put with cold air cutting underneath supporting its location.

That high is faring quite well considering a full on battering from the tropospheric polar vortex. Low heights regardless of the output seem to want to stick to our north west so again its heights over Scandinavia I believe we will be looking out for. I am still not seeing the slug of last year developing.

Some of McCaskill's great forecasts involved epic Scandi highs and bitter easterlies such as Jan 87 and Feb 1991, I think we deserve another classic spell in the coming weeks.

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Gosh. Amazing. And Rickmansworth too (I spent most my childhood there & in Chorleywood!).

Re modelling, a bit of context but I make no judgement on forecast confidence(!). The Dec-issue Glosea JFM signal is skewed by F-M. Jan actually looks quite blocked. Strat PV consolidation as per medium range may not necessarily prove a foregone conclusion all of next month... in short, any 'winter is over' postings based on present deterministic modelling need to wait a few more weeks to receive any final stamp of validity :-)

The last GFS FI actually had a much less strong strat vortex than most runs over the last few days, in fact it was stecthed to the point it may have split in the mid strat (30mb) had the run kept going, is this whats being modelled on GLOSEA5 as that's the only way I can see Jan ending up blocked from here, surely once the VI propagates down to 50mb - 70mb  then surely the writing is on the wall.

[A Frayed Knot]

[WINTRY WALES]

1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Is unsettled the opposite of game on though if Matt was hoping to see cold and winters weather as per winter forecast?

[Paul_1978]

40 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

One of the greatest forecasts of all time. Pure winter joy in the utterly coldest extreme. Colder, colder, colder and then bang with the snow and it just kept coming. Spot on, too. Yes, one of the great forecasters. Let's hope for a countryfile forecast like this one on Sunday in his honour!

You dont have to wait for Countryfile - Weather For The Week is on everyday now ;-)