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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

Yep for some reason It didn't put the 06z one over I have now removed it

Anyway, the GFS ens doesn't support the Op with its SE'ly

Ens                                                                Op

gfs-0-360.png?12gens-21-1-360.png?12

 

Not entirely true, there are plenty in the ensembles that support it, but as we have to repeat over and over again the ensemble mean isn't a fair reflection of the clusters.

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Not entirely true, there are plenty in the ensembles that support it, but as we have to repeat over and over again the ensemble mean isn't a fair reflection of the clusters.

Just about to say this, pointless that far out and only worth posting ensemble means within a a week at the most. Ensemble support for the Op is there, control included again. The Op is probably best outcome though.

Edited by Ali1977

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34 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Time to hold your hands up?

 

gfs-0-384 (5).png

This is one op run at 384..... arggghhh. Yes a good easterly is in the making, and yes it is nice to look at on the screen, but it means pretty much nothing as a forecast for that day. It is not inconceivable and it is absolutely what most are looking for, but no holding up of hands is needed unless it verifies. 

We have what looks like a big mid lat high setting up in the more reliable timeframe, which should, with a more continental feed, lower temps and open up the possibility of some colder surface weather as we head towards Christmas. Thereafter, if we can get some amplification we could well see it orientate in a more favourable position, and that is something to watch over the coming days, but for now its just a case of watching and waiting (hoping).

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yep for some reason It didn't put the 06z one over I have now removed it

Anyway, the GFS ens doesn't support the Op with its SE'ly

Op                                                               Ens

gfs-0-360.png?12gens-21-1-360.png?12

 

As unlikely as the Op FI scenario is for now, the GEFS mean is never ever going to portray a strong signal for an easterly at nearly 2 weeks out as it will be muted towards climatology with the non blocked members.  

Best looking towards the NOAA & Eps clusters later tonight along with a continuation of the theme on future model runs to see if such a scenario as any credence for now.

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GEFs

gensnh-21-5-240.png  gensnh-21-5-300.png   gensnh-21-5-360.png

A long and potentially frustrating second half of December, a pretty robust Euro/Scandi high throughout to the start of week 3, can we get low heights developing underneath this is the question. There will be windows of opportunity but any cold looks like it will come from the east. Surface cold looks probably at times though.

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1 minute ago, chris55 said:

This is one op run at 384..... arggghhh. Yes a good easterly is in the making, and yes it is nice to look at on the screen, but it means pretty much nothing as a forecast for that day. It is not inconceivable and it is absolutely what most are looking for, but no holding up of hands is needed unless it verifies. 

We have what looks like a big mid lat high setting up in the more reliable timeframe, which should, with a more continental feed, lower temps and open up the possibility of some colder surface weather as we head towards Christmas. Thereafter, if we can get some amplification we could well see it orientate in a more favourable position, and that is something to watch over the coming days, but for now its just a case of watching and waiting (hoping).

I did know all that, you know. Having a bit of fun with mucka.

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yep for some reason It didn't put the 06z one over I have now removed it

Anyway, the GFS ens doesn't support the Op with its SE'ly

Op                                                               Ens

gfs-0-360.png?12gens-21-1-360.png?12

 

One of those times when the means mean very little given the spread of options at that range.

gens_panel_bgd6.png

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18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Who is getting carried away? Or who is showing to much enthusiasm?

It would be nice if we could read this thread without having to read stuff like this that only serves to stop the poster in question getting disappointed. 

Hello Frosty,

 

I`m merely trying to stop people getting excited by these long range useless charts so that they DONT get disappointed if they don`t come to fruition. I`m guilty and have done this in the past on many occasions and was also told by experienced folk on the thread not to look in FI so im just passing that on to others.

 

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40 minutes ago, offerman said:

Those charts while looking good are way too far out in FI as usual and has often been the case this winter. If these charts verify within a week then that`s reason to start getting more enthusiastic IMHO. 

How many times have we all got excited by FI charts only to be let down time and time again.  Ignore them at those distances as too much can change.

It's the first time in weeks that the GFS has shown some interesting long range charts. I always say not to look at those long range charts but I have noticed that the GFS sees things, it sees it for afew runs and then it disappears again, then suddenly the ECWMF starts seeing it at around 192-168h and GFS trails at around 168-144h

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I really wish the GFS would just end at T240hrs and its ensembles the same. The fact we're looking at charts at T360hrs for signs of life shows how desperate things have become.

I'd ignore the delusional rantings of the GFS as it just leads to false hope that the models are going to move away from the current wretched pattern. If something appears at day ten and actually doesn't get marooned there for days then fine, that's hope mixed with some reality.

But really the verification for outputs towards 14 days is laughable. And be warned to any who decide to stick up CFS charts for T+700hrs, banning orders are in place for false prophets! lol

Moan over!

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Significant differences at day 5:  GFS could be out on a limb tonight - let's see.  Will be interesting if the ECM follows APERGE/UKMO (i.e. a flatter more mobile scenario)

GFS:

gfsnh-0-120.png?12?12

 

GEM:

gemnh-0-120.png

 

UKMO:

UN120-21.GIF

 

APERGE:

arpegenh-0-114.png?12

Edited by mulzy

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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Come on ECM, keep the positivity going...

Not much to be positive in the standard 240 hr ECM, anything that may work out for us is nearer 384 !! Extended ensembles later on may show something!!

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not much to be positive in the standard 240 hr ECM, anything that may work out for us is nearer 384 !! Extended ensembles later on may show something!!

there are building blocks to look for

any cold charts don't generally just come out of nowhere

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On 10/12/2016 at 14:12, Timbo said:

i have a feeling that over the next few days the models will move more towards a proper Scandy High, this then allowing a cold pool to develop and move Westwards into the South of the UK

East Anglia could be seeing a proper white Xmas with frequent snow showers.

Watch this space and watch a turn around in the models starting tomorrow  

I posted this on Saturday, looks like it is shaping up nicely, with a bit of movement further north and jackpot for xmas:cold-emoji::cold::yahoo:

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Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble shows a changeable and mild picture early in the period before a drier and cooler spells develops. Towards the end of the period (28th as 16day glance) there are suggestions of it turning more changeable and milder.

 

TWO seem to think milder....  

 

 

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I really wish the GFS would just end at T240hrs and its ensembles the same. The fact we're looking at charts at T360hrs for signs of life shows how desperate things have become.

I'd ignore the delusional rantings of the GFS as it just leads to false hope that the models are going to move away from the current wretched pattern. If something appears at day ten and actually doesn't get marooned there for days then fine, that's hope mixed with some reality.

But really the verification for outputs towards 14 days is laughable. And be warned to any who decide to stick up CFS charts for T+700hrs, banning orders are in place for false prophets! lol

Moan over!

Spot on!

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41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just about to say this, pointless that far out and only worth posting ensemble means within a a week at the most. Ensemble support for the Op is there, control included again. The Op is probably best outcome though.

Totally agree there Ali.

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Just now, offerman said:

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble shows a changeable and mild picture early in the period before a drier and cooler spells develops. Towards the end of the period (28th as 16day glance) there are suggestions of it turning more changeable and milder.

 

TWO seem to think milder....

 

 

Spot on!

This is my normal early winter rant re the GFS and its outer reaches and its just one of those things that bugs me! lol Getting back to the outputs the ECM is closer to the GFS at T120hrs. The UKMO is the worst solution at that stage.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there are building blocks to look for

any cold charts don't generally just come out of nowhere

Contrary to popular opinion, I agree with you though and glad you said this as always occurs in times of uncertainty, particularly with Easterlies, my bugbears are comments like 'FI is 48-72' or 'brutal Easterly could easily pop up at 144' when not one ensemble member suggests this.

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