Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles

An improvement on this morning I think.

[Frosty.]

Almost a repeat of how last night's Gfs 18z ended..I'm not complaining though!christmas week snow..yes please

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

Thanks Snowm4n. Good example, far easier to understand.

No worries it's all very overbearing. 

[Frosty.]

If we are going to see wild swings in the output, it can only be a good thing for wintry weather lovers!means we have a good shot instead of boring predictability.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

I think I'll buy myself an Airfix model. Much less stressful and at least I'll know what it will look like in 2 weeks time...

[Mucka]

Well at day 10 GFS ensembles are very keen to have us under high pressure with only a very small minority (2 or 3) going for something more mobile.

It almost entirely mid lat blocking with the jet over the top though so we need to wait further into FI for a trough to dig South and the high get displaced and where it gets displaced seems pretty random at the moment with West probably most favoured but every other compass point accounted for including the dreaded S and SE.

It does seem a fairly good bet that the UK will be under high pressure in  10 days time at the moment though.

 

Edit.

Around 35% give us some kind of Atlantic block by the end of the run. I guess that is a signal of sorts, just not one to pin any faith on.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Mucka

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I think I'll buy myself an Airfix model. Much less stressful and at least I'll know what it will look like in 2 weeks time...

But just like the models that give us wintry output, it won't fly.

[SMU]

This is the closest I can get for using an image as a hovmoller

the axis time V height & the shading is the anomaly so the darker the red the higher the zonal wind

what you are looking for if your a mild fan is for the positive winds to downwell from 1HPA all the way into the troposhere -

You will see from this

it is starting to propergate as well as the 30HPA zonal forecast

rewind to Nov & the ECM didnt see any propergation

 

any better images Ian?

 

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is the closest I can get for using an image as a hovmoller

the axis time V height & the shading is the anomaly so the darker the red the higher the zonal wind

what you are looking for if your a mild fan is for the positive winds to downwell from 1HPA all the way into the troposhere -

You will see from this

it is starting to propergate as well as the 30HPA zonal forecast

rewind to Nov & the ECM didnt see any propergation

 

any better images Ian?

 

 

 

More than likely ' But he will not show them (Fingers crossed he doe's though ) Go Fergie go !! Take us from out of our Misery and tell us something sweet in the Outcome .

[Geordiesnow]

Tonight's ECM is dissapointing to be fair, was hoping for a little more amplification earlier on but never really happened. I think the standout for me in tonights outputs that the outlook is mild but not fully onslaught Atlantic weather so there is barely anything polar maritime in the outlook at all and with low pressure never too far away in the West, the frost risk will be very minimal so you got to say, its an exceptionally mild outlook for both day and night.

I always say if we can't have cold/frosty/snowy weather, lets have some deep low pressure systems heading our way to talk about but we don't get that either so it is a drab outlook with NO sign of any cold weather heading our way. I think the opportunity of perhaps something more surprising regarding the early potential ridging is all but gone now but as per usual there is always time for change before we know it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Possibly starting to get somewhere? Much more amplified Atlantic sector towards 192 hrs +

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly starting to get somewhere? Much more amplified Atlantic sector towards 192 hrs +

You still on the graveyard shift Crew?

Certainly interesting given it is inside day 8 and not very far off giving a Northerly blast.

Another 10 day output with a stonking UK high, but this one has a better look to it as far as potential upgrades go.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

You still on the graveyard shift Crew?

Certainly interesting given it is inside day 8 and not very far off giving a Northerly blast.

Another 10 day output with a stonking UK high, but this one has a better look to it as far as potential upgrades go.

Watch out for the retrograde further into FI...not a gimme but certainly the potential down the line...

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Watch out for the retrograde further into FI...not a gimme but certainly the potential down the line...

Certainly would hold some potential if we got this far. More runs needed. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

As the run ends, we're awaiting the next amplification episode upstream..will take one LP dragging warm air up the west of Greenland and we've got ourselves a cold spell. Very encouraging output from the 0z really as all the groundwork is laid

 

Should the trend continue, I'd expect to see some tasty op runs soon enough

Edited December 8, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Certainly GFS sniffing out a more amplified upstream after mid month which would greatly enhance our cold chances. 

Actually the last couple of runs or so it has been pretty much taking zonal off the table.

ECM has also moved toward some form of mid lat blocking but as yet has kept things fairly flat upstream so hopefully that will change today and we can start to look for ways to get blocking into the correct regions and at a better latitude for us to draw in some cold polar air.

Looks to be a slow burner but we should have something to work with at least a full week before Christmas, so a white Christmas far from off the cards as yet.

Surely we are due some luck too.

 

 

[Seasonality]

A little pre-xmas treat from the 00z. A snow event in xmas week. Whats not to like?

[Seasonality]

27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly GFS sniffing out a more amplified upstream after mid month which would greatly enhance our cold chances. 

Actually the last couple of runs or so it has been pretty much taking zonal off the table.

ECM has also moved toward some form of mid lat blocking but as yet has kept things fairly flat upstream so hopefully that will change today and we can start to look for ways to get blocking into the correct regions and at a better latitude for us to draw in some cold polar air.

Looks to be a slow burner but we should have something to work with at least a full week before Christmas, so a white Christmas far from off the cards as yet.

Surely we are due some luck too.

 

 

Almost there for Xmas @Mucka. See my post above.

[knocker]

Today

Fine in Scotland and N. Ireland with rain moving east over England and Wales  which could be quite heavy at times in N/ Wales and N. England. Remaining very Mild. Overnight a cold front will move SE over Scotland and N. Ireland with clearer , cooler,  conditions behind with temps nearer normal.

The GFS this morning, sticking to the ten day parameter. The long wave pattern remains similar although there are some changes which,may, or may not, turn out to be the precursor to change. Towards the end of the period some more amplification takes place but this time the reorientation of the major players in the Atlantic heralds the reduction of the influence of the upper trough in the Atlantic and perhaps more from the Azores.

Anyway back to the nitty gritty

Saturday sees the upper trough to the west deconstruct which leaves a surface low to track east north of Scotland with associated fronts bringing rain and strong winds to same area.

From here we are back to the complicated interplay between the warm and cold air as the Azores ridges once again and the complex upper trough n the Atlantic edges east again with this strong thermal gradient and the jet running around south of the trough and then NE. So by Wednesday we have this position

From here the trough once more deconstructs and the Azores surges but now perhaps, reiterate perhaps, we are seeing a reluctance for  the upper trough in the west to rush to reassert dominance and a period of the Azores setting up shop adjacent to the UK

A quick summation

After the weekend the UK will be in an SW.W airflow with a couple of weak fronts traversing the country and temps remaining above average.The end of the week sees the resurgence of the HP with a cell perched over the UK by the weekend bringing calm and quite pleasant conditions.

Edited December 8, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

ECM is going against the GFS and perhaps UKMO this morning, keeping things much more mobile and unsettled.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is going against the GFS and perhaps UKMO this morning, keeping things much more mobile and unsettled.

Yes totally different run from the ECM here. The main low transfers just to the north of the UK by T192 and the Euro High is flattened. Perhaps a NWly to come at T216/T240?

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes totally different run from the ECM here. The main low transfers just to the north of the UK by T192 and the Euro High is flattened. Perhaps a NWly to come at T216/T240?

It's also a lot more amplified to our NW.

[bluearmy]

Hemispherically you get the feelig that if the Canadian vortex begins to weaken then the next amplification will be enough to retrograde the ridging from nw Europe completely. Whether that's day 10 or 20 I wouldn't lie to guess !

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes totally different run from the ECM here. The main low transfers just to the north of the UK by T192 and the Euro High is flattened. Perhaps a NWly to come at T216/T240?

Here it is!

[blizzard81]

I find the model output absolutely astonishing at the moment. The difference between yesterday's ecm 12z and this morning's 00z is nothing short of amazing. One of the biggest differences I have seen in 13 years of model watching.