Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Thanks GP

rest assured I wasn't being facetious 

Where can I find the 70hPa charts?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016120618&var=HGT&lev=70mb&hour=240

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Instant weather maps, gfs, stratosphere

thank you

 

Edited December 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[Geordiesnow]

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The 18z was just laughable I'm sorry, but that's got to go straight in the bin. Pretty certain the ensembles will concur. Onto tomorrow 

Which bit is laughable may I ask and why? I think the charts you posted in your previous post just demonstrate why I usually refuse to look in GFS FI as it runs at a much lower resolution, its too far away to try and even develop a trends and is imo, a waste of time.

At the 96-120 hours part of the run, there is some more encouragment which might suggest any height rises will try and have some influence on our weather. At this stage you still bank on the jet stream winning the battle but as per ever, tomorrow mornings runs will be interesting too see what they say for that key period.

[karlos1983]

24 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Which bit is laughable may I ask and why? I think the charts you posted in your previous post just demonstrate why I usually refuse to look in GFS FI as it runs at a much lower resolution, its too far away to try and even develop a trends and is imo, a waste of time.

At the 96-120 hours part of the run, there is some more encouragment which might suggest any height rises will try and have some influence on our weather. At this stage you still bank on the jet stream winning the battle but as per ever, tomorrow mornings runs will be interesting too see what they say for that key period.

Yeah I'm already over my comment, move on. Being schooled by GP is fine by me, but I'm done with being pulled up by the entire forum (ok a few) 

like I said, the PV blowing up and then being split apart all within a small timescale really made me think it was odd. 

Laughable was obviously the wrong phrase, it's upset many people. 

Edited December 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

 

Anyway....some pluses in the modelling today towards Christmas. Consistently modelled Arctic high by the GFS op runs

A forerunner to the anticipated Christmas/New Year week cool down??

Edited December 6, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[festivalking]

I can't post charts but is the tail end of the gfs 18z just showing the old traditional toppler? Short lived but some deep cold none the same.

[Geordiesnow]

25 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I'm already over my comment, move on. Being schooled by GP is fine by me, but I'm done with being pulled up by the entire forum

To be fair I was asking a genuine question and was not pulling you up at all because when I saw your post and I had to checked quite a few times if those charts were not from different dates as the transformation is very quick and in reality rarely seems to change that fast. As I say, I take a very dim view of the GFS FI charts just because of the lower resolution alone nevermind the timeframe.

What I'm personally hoping for is an improvment in the UKMO run, very dissapointing 12Z run when previous UKMO runs showed something a little bit more interesting. However it did seem like the Atlantic was going barge through but now there could be 2nd thoughts on that with high pressure nearer by although unfortunately not in a position to deliver the weather most of us on here are looking for.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

To be fair I was asking a genuine question and was not pulling you up at all because when I saw your post and I had to checked quite a few times if those charts were not from different dates as the transformation is very quick and in reality rarely seems to change. As I say, I take a very dim view of the GFS FI charts just because of the lower resolution alone nevermind the timeframe.

What I'm personally hoping for is an improvment in the UKMO run, very dissapointing 12Z run when previous UKMO runs showed something a little bit more interesting. However it did seem like the Atlantic was going barge through but now there could be 2nd thoughts on that with high pressure nearer by although unfortunately not in a position to deliver the weather most of us on here are looking for.

Fair enough geordie, and I appreciate the response. I am always always open to constructive criticism, because I want to learn. 

This Gif kind of sums up my bin it mindset of the 18z(rightly or wrongly, it was where my head was at). Like you say though, it might be best practice not to look at fl GFS runs, which is probably sound advise   But sometimes I shouldn't have that last drink, but I do lol. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[pyrotech]

Why are people so quick to dismiss the high moving north. Mjo now becoming weak. The likely hood of heights rising in Scandinavia and Siberia increase in this scenario. With 11 to 15 day lag and mjo already in weak phase 1 this is a very likely scenario in around that time frame. Other factors will decide how far north and east but go through my posts and see that this is very much a plausible outcome. Ecm hints that it's heading that way. Gfs shows similar motion at day 10. Scandinavia high after that period is very much a possibility and has been latter part of Autumn for very same reasons. zonal period imminent helped by moderate phase 8 and 1 mjo in mid November. Now back to weak but uncertainty for how long. effects will follow.

Edited December 6, 2016 by pyrotech
auto spell check Sierra too siberia

[ITSY]

Some very interesting Synoptics floating around the ensembles tonight. Shannon entropy in full flow. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Some very interesting Synoptics floating around the ensembles tonight. Shannon entropy in full flow. 

I'll take this one going forward....epic...

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

The 18z was just laughable I'm sorry, but that's got to go straight in the bin. Pretty certain the ensembles will concur. Onto tomorrow 

So outlier? maybe not, just! And that's being generous 

All in all I'm happy though. Things finely balanced as we head into the second half of December 

Mild mush looking less likely imo

Edited December 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[knocker]

Today

Generally dry and cloudy in England and Wales although it will break with sunny intervals in places. N. Ireland and Scotland also cloudy with a weak front tracking SE during the day bringing patchy rain. some strong winds in Scotland later The front will continue it's journey SE to clear the south by early afternoon Thursday. The most noticeable aspect will be the temps which in the SW flow are way above average and could reach 17C in some places.

l

The GFS this morning. The first to thing note is that the fluidity and bursts of amplification within a static long wave pattern remains the order of the day. Given this I think it wise to stick to the next ten days and that's probably a push.

This week the upper trough tracks east (still on a very strong SW/NE jet) and by Friday deconstructs as it tussles with the high pressure On the surface this translates to weak fronts with some rain effecting mainly England and Wales. The rain will be on the warm side so will probably give the dafs a boost.

The beginning of next week until Wednesday is a repeat of the process we are all familiar with renewed amplification of the high pressure over the UK which comes under attack from the complex upper Atlantic trough which once again deconstructs

From here the significant feature until the end of the ten day period is the interaction between the large, complex, upper trough in the western Atlantic and renewed ridging NE of the Azores HP which creates a very srong thermal gradient and consequently an 160kt jet running SW/NE. Quite fascinating.

A brief summation. Generally remaining unsettled during the period with periods of wind and rain as the fronts struggle through although they will generally favour the north and west, where there will also be strong winds reaching gale force at times with the SE tending to stay pretty dry. Temps above average.

EDIT

To digress slightly. If you want a good example of moist, warm tropical air in December, look no further than Camborne midnight sounding. The Tropopause is at 168mb.

Edited December 7, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Both ukmo and gfs agree on too much energy to the north of the uk preventing the azores high moving north and the attempted ridge gets flattened out..(again)..over to ecm...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Both ukmo and gfs agree on too much energy to the north of the uk preventing the azores high moving north and the attempted ridge gets flattened out..(again)..over to ecm...

Agreed the gfs is the most boring and mild run iv ever seen with endless sounwesterlies.

Never paying attention to long range sh17 again. 

[Seasonality]

12z 384h vs 18z para 384h. Just for fun. But I think the 12z block could end up in a favourable position.

[mb018538]

Yuck is all you can say to the 00z GFS and UKMO - much flatter than yesterdays runs, and thus it stays unsettled and fairly mild. One for the bin!

[ArHu3]

EC teasing us again at 196h

[bluearmy]

With a rapidly strengthening Canadian vortex and temps dropping like crazy compared to what has been seen thus far over there it's no surprise to see the modelling struggling to cope with this and the pulses of Arctic highs courtesy of the aleutian ridging. If we see sufficient split between the segments then we are bound to see rapid amplification our side of the NH but with the models coping with the consequences of the quickly formed Canadian vortex, its no surprise to see apparent continuity issues on the ops. interesting that glosea and the eps are quote bimodal on this as you would have expected a bit more Shannon entropy. 

if the Siberian segment decays enough or edges further east  then the scandi ridge will quickly gain momentum. not convinced on that one yet.

[Ali1977]

Day ten looking quite good on ECM, high in place but notice the lower heights forming in the Med

[terrier]

So after the gfs18z last night raising some hopes the gfs00z and ukmo bringing the forum back down with a bang. Gfs mild with south westerly winds dominating. Ukmo also looks going similar route. Seen a few comments saying there wrong and to bin it. But we can't bin a whole model suite just because it doesn't show what we want. Onto the ecm.....

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, terrier said:

So after the gfs18z last night raising some hopes the gfs00z and ukmo bringing the forum back down with a bang. Gfs mild with south westerly winds dominating. Ukmo also looks going similar route. Seen a few comments saying there wrong and to bin it. But we can't bin a whole model suite just because it doesn't show what we want. Onto the ecm.....

It's only 1 run though..and frost is still the form horse to return next week. Coldies in the uk have to roll with the punches. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Both ukmo and gfs agree on too much energy to the north of the uk preventing the azores high moving north and the attempted ridge gets flattened out..(again)..over to ecm...

The other way of looking at this is the energy (strong NE jet) running to the north is at least partly due the enduring strength of the Azores HP and it;s amplification bursts.

[Man With Beard]

Just simply going by the reliable timeframe and ignoring all else, the models this morning come out reasonably united with a very mild picture. The interactions between highs to the south and lows to the north are almost textbook mild. Storms, however, look to be kept to the north, and probably only affecting northern and western areas. 

Looking at the ensemble data we have so far, the idea of a Scandi High at around D10 is not dead but has gone back to being the outlier. The notion of a north Atlantic high at that timeframe, which was suggested by models over the weekend and before, is completely gone.

All in all, cold weather is extremely far away this morning, apart from the possibility of high pressure building towards the UK sufficient enough to bring surface cold from the continent.

Absolutely no point looking further than D10 today as a. We don't have the building blocks for cold in place at a reliable timeframe and b. long range models are unclear, as we know.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The other way of looking at this is the energy (strong NE jet) running to the north is at least partly due the enduring strength of the Azores HP and it;s amplification bursts.

Positive NAO