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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow showers moving SW across the UK as the colder air digs...

IMG_1183.PNG

UKmo looks great to at 144 loads of :cold::cold:

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow showers moving SW across the UK as the colder air digs...

IMG_1183.PNG

oooohh matron!

 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow showers moving SW across the UK as the colder air digs...

IMG_1183.PNG

Ukmo not bad either.

UW144-21 (3).gif

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ukmo not bad either.

UW144-21 (3).gif

The UKMO is just stunning! Amazing upgrade compared to what it was showing 24 hours ago.

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A comparison between both the 06Z and the 12Z GFS below at 168 hours. Almost virtually indentical, although the 12Z GFS does have slightly better penetration of colder 850 hPa temperatures filtering in from the North and North-East, plus the Atlantic High Pressure is a tad further West. A slight upgrade in that respects, and maybe a chance of a few wintry/snow showers in the East :)

06Z GFS

IMG_9308.PNGIMG_9309.PNG

 

12Z GFS

IMG_9310.PNGIMG_9311.PNG

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GFS 12z looking much better on this run. You can see the high sitting further west over the Atlantic. Amplication better too as stretching up to Greenland. As the high has a better tilt the winds sit more NE than E bringing the risk of snow showers, possibly colder too. Good consistency I must admit.

12z at 168hr: GFS 12z 168.png

6z at 174hr: GFS 6z 174.png

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

A comparison between both the 06Z and the 12Z GFS below at 168 hours. Almost virtually indentical, although the 12Z GFS does have slightly better penetration of colder 850 hPa temperatures filtering in from the North and North-East, plus the Atlantic High Pressure is a tad further West. A slight upgrade in that respects, and maybe a chance of a few wintry/snow showers in the East :)

06Z GFS

IMG_9308.PNGIMG_9309.PNG

 

12Z GFS

IMG_9310.PNGIMG_9311.PNG

Beat me to it... Just ;)

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow showers moving SW across the UK as the colder air digs...

IMG_1183.PNG

 

What timeframe is that Steve?

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

GFS 12z looking much better on this run. You can see a slower eastward progression thus causing the high to sit further west over the Atlantic. Amplication better too as stretching up to Greenland. As the high has a better tilt the winds sit more NE than E bringing the risk of snow showers, possibly colder too. Good consistency I must admit.

12z at 168hr: GFS 12z 168.png

6z at 174hr: GFS 6z 174.png

 

You can also see a slightly weaker jet to the north of the high on the 12z. So better in every sense!

Edited by karyo

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Well this cold spell is definitely on UKMO GFS singing from the same hymn sheet:cold:I hope the servers are up to speed by the time ECM is out this board will go into melt down:oops:Freezer lol. :cold:

 

Edited by snowice

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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

GFS 12z looking much better on this run. You can see the high sitting further west over the Atlantic. Amplication better too as stretching up to Greenland. As the high has a better tilt the winds sit more NE than E bringing the risk of snow showers, possibly colder too. Good consistency I must admit.

12z at 168hr: GFS 12z 168.png

6z at 174hr: GFS 6z 174.png

 

 

I must say, that is an absolute perfect placement of the High-Pressure cell there too, couldn't have drawn a more perfect chart for the start of a new weather year. If such charts are still being predicted in a couple of days henceforth I'll be very interested, just not getting too excited yet.

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Is that a much better re-load going up at 204Hr?

Kerching!!! Yes it is, great run!

Edited by Fingers

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Very nice the by now continental flow is established. ..

And the twinkle again begins to appear pin-point Greenland again...lots on offer!!

gfs-0-222.png

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Excellent model output from UKMO & GFS to start the evening.

image.pngimage.png

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Yes, the 12z GFS really is the cold-pornographer out in FI at the T200+ plus mark. Though what that really suggests in terms of a significant change in upstream signal, remains to be seen.

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Just got back from walk and squirrels stocking up with straw ,yes great charts and I like uk met latest chart , we need good charts this evening ,but gang  don't get sucked in yet If it's out there lurking the model hymm sheets will give us the final Nod  but very good charts for the Hunt ,catch you all up later if we don't Crash first .:friends::yahoo::yahoo:

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Good GFS but lets see if this set of ENS trump the last. 

And they are VERY good

Edited by Ali1977

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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Very nice the by now continental flow is established. ..

And the twinkle again begins to appear pin-point Greenland again...lots on offer!!

gfs-0-222.png

Wow! All that very cold air ready to in bed us from the north certainly not dry!! 

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Loving the charts at the mo, but not getting sucked in, need another 2+ day's and if we are still seeing great charts for the 1st of the month onwards, then maybe just maybe this is our time!

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A band of rain moving south through New Years day signals the change to colder air

138-779UK.GIF?26-12150-779UK.GIF?26-12

Coastal areas look best placed for some snow showers

168-779UK.GIF?26-12192-779UK.GIF?26-12192-779UK.GIF?26-12

Snow depth

192-780UK.GIF?26-12240-780UK.GIF?26-12

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7 minutes ago, BARRY said:

lets see what the models look like in 2 days time been on this roller coaster for to many years

 

Yes, indeed. I think a toppler northerly is pretty much nailed-on, though its a question as to how quickly the trough ebbs away and is filled in by height rises from the west. 24hrs? 48?hrs I'm going for a slightly more extended toppler than yesterdays GFS charts were showing, as opposed to the previous ECM. What happens after that, with the High directly over the UK or slightly to the North of it; remains very much in the balance. But with significant cold trapped under that high, it could still produce some significant ice-days in some places.

Edited by PersianPaladin

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