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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But still flattens out as per gfs continuity - slightly different set up in the nw Atlantic at day 8 so interesting to see if we go northerly by T300.

gfsnh-0-234.png?6

Yes quite different , do well to get a Northerly from here

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The GFS slightly more amplified this run no point looking much further passed 144hr the first Northerly. Its all about the Low East of Canada the GFS is notorious for blowing them up..  Could well be middle ground solution UKMO.

gfsnh-0-138.png

UN144-21.gif

ECH1-144.gif

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54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But still flattens out as per gfs continuity - slightly different set up in the nw Atlantic at day 8 so interesting to see if we go northerly by T300.

hgt500-1000.pngNot quite...........this time...

Edited by Fozfoster
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gfsnh-0-300.png?6

Deep deep into FI but encouraging signs , a fraction away from being s superb chart. But as always one run one model

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The 6z into the run has the UK under a cold N/E flow with more High Pressure being pumped up towards Greenland. Plenty of interest over the coming days as the models toy with detail.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Well its only one run but gfs6z is bitterly cold, might not be much snow but for frozen landscapes ponds etc its beautiful...

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Great GFS but something makes me think it's going to get better as the day goes on, with a marked decrease in the ENS - if the EPS are showing it I have a feeling the rest will follow. I wonder if we can reverse the technology here, the models signal a  driver change rather than the drivers signal a model change of pattern !! We still need the GFS to get the block further North before we can be more confident of a prolonged "big freeze"  or cold spell.

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Cold surface conditions for sure on the 6z, 

a.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime

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In fact looking at the 2m (surface) temps its pretty much freezing from the 1st of jan until the 11th!!:cold:

Over a sustained period frozen ponds etc is on the cards!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its only one run but gfs6z is bitterly cold, might not be much snow but for frozen landscapes ponds etc its beautiful...

I agree...But, for a lot of snow to fall, it'd only take minimal adjustments to pressure-patterns. I wonder if all the models mightn't be struggling a bit with the current relative paucity of any definitive long-term (over-arching?) signals? Not that, in terms of potential/outcomes, that would necessarily mean a lot?:cc_confused::cold::cold-emoji:

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Not long to wait for frosty nights under high pressure across England and Wales, the Gfs 6z looks fine and cold as this week goes on..much better than that very mild mush we had yesterday!:D

06_72_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

06_96_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_96_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs6z is cold, cold, and more cold.Tremendous run guys!!:cold:

Agreed! It is a huge upgrade for cold and it reminds me of yesterday's 0z which was great for a lengthy cold spell.

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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Markedly below average in January, that is pretty cold and definitely cold enough for snow. Still gutted I'm going to miss the 02-06th Jan but I have a feeling it's the 2nd week that could start bringing in the very cold air!! Beast anyone!!

Same here. I'm away 27th Dec - 4th Jan, then 6th Jan - 13th Jan. People need not worry about the model output in between, my absence will guarantee plenty of cold and snow

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not long to wait for frosty nights under high pressure across England and Wales, the Gfs 6z looks fine and cold as this week goes on..much better than that very mild mush we had yesterday!:D

06_72_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

06_96_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_96_mslp500.png

Not long indeed - -6 for me here tonight

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That's a very cold run especially in terms of surface temps. We'd possibly see ice days off that.

In the T120-144 timeframe of 'what's happening next?' the toppler high does look really quite odds on. However, several models are now showing a rebuild high so I wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z ECM gaining some support i.e. the high never really topples, but ridges west and north. There's plenty of backup for height rises out that way. 

Which is, of course, the holy grail to UK cold.

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Looking at some of those projected 850s (and assuming cloudless skies and little or no wind) some places, especially the fog-prone, could well see minima below -10C?

Waiting to discover when/where/if the snow's going to come from, however, could cause some frustration?:cold:

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

gensnh-0-1-228.png

Control shaping up to be a beauty

The majority of the ENS are looking GREAT:cold::cold:

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The GFS 06z is one of seemingly several options on the table. Not as cold uppers but surface wise potential for sub-zero days.

Maybe not what most of us want to see with the second height build much further east, but we are seeing a few permutations and all (so far) lead to cold. The odds seem very much to favour an extended cold spell, though quite where it leads us viz surface conditions, still remains elusive.

D16 under a cold UK high: gfs-0-384 (2).png

Its a very complicated setup and on this run the short wave low at T192 cuts off the second ridge from building in where the 0z went, leading to major changes. The 06z Control stays with the 0z suite:

OP  gfs-0-192.png   Controlgens-0-1-192 (1).png

So a day or so later massive differences caused by the shortwave spoiler:

OP:  gfs-0-228.pngControl: gens-0-1-228.png

And of course within each clustering, variations on that theme.

"winter is coming".

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