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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Something to cheer about for the coldies...

gemnh-0-216.png

Deep FI though!

Nice chart but with little support no doubt!!  

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

The day 7-8 amplifying low off the U.S. just vanished on the 12z GFS run which is a shame as it made some good progress with the few days before that. 

I can't resist posting the day 10 GEM - it not only has a northerly for us but a dual-attack on the vortex taking place:

gemnh-0-240.png?12

I do think the idea of a more poleward ridge is perfectly sensible given the background signals emerging, but we can't have any confidence in it locating in such a favourable place for us with respect to wintry weather.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And, just in case anyone had thought I'd exhausted my supply of pathetic tennis-related metaphors, Mr GFS has just sent a potentially match-winning backhand drive-volley right between the tramlines!:yahoo: 

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, just in case anyone had thought I'd exhausted my supply of pathetic tennis-related metaphors, Mr GFS has just sent a potentially match-winning backhand drive-volley right between the tramlines!:yahoo: 

Lets hope MR GFS dose not serve us up a Double Fault

 

C.S

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted
4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Lets hope MR GFS dose not serve us up a Double Fault

 

C.S

Need to close that net

22 12 05 01_Ink_LI.jpg

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

love the 12z just for its sarcasm!! fi gives north africa lower 2m temps than the uk!!!  oh dear :rofl::rofl:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

That's an impressive anticyclone being modelled by the Gfs 12z centred to the e / se next week bringing fine cool days and cold nights with slight frosts and fog patches across England and Wales, too much breeze for fog further n / w.

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp (2).png

Edited by Frosty.
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Huh!

Deep cold vast parts of Europe' and penatrative cold knocking on the door of Florida/stateside. 

And as-per uk stuck in the wedge of stagnant leftovers! 

Anyway its an evolutionary start I suppose' and the is 'at least' a little potential into january. 

Be interesting to see how the ecm deals with this evolution latter frames?!

gfsnh-1-360.png

gfsnh-0-348.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Things in my eyes look much better into Jan, Euroslug gets moved out, high moves into the Atlantic - many more opportunities for something better in Jan...I imagine a good set of ENS coming out.

IMG_3823.PNG

IMG_3824.PNG

IMG_3825.PNG

IMG_3826.PNG

IMG_3827.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted

Interestingly (well, for me anyway!), the last 3 GEFS runs have each downgraded a mild spot due to take place around the 27th. After all 3, it has almost become just a slightly above day. ECM from this morning still has it.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's an impressive anticyclone being modelled by the Gfs 12z centred to the e / se next week bringing fine cool days and cold nights with slight frosts and fog patches across England and Wales, too much breeze for fog further n / w.

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp (2).png

it looks fantastic frosty!!well in summer esp!!! .least it wont be wet.:yahoo:

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted
34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, just in case anyone had thought I'd exhausted my supply of pathetic tennis-related metaphors, Mr GFS has just sent a potentially match-winning backhand drive-volley right between the tramlines!:yahoo: 

 

I've got one question for you then, Pete. Will it snow in Wimbledon?

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Need to close that net

22 12 05 01_Ink_LI.jpg

 
 
 

Blocked to the East of us, Blocked to the West, Stuck in the middle with nothingness. :shok: Deuce points.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

For what it's worth, the CFS sub-monthly ensembles (last 4 runs) suggests a negative AO and a neutral to slightly negative NAO for most of January resulting in negative temperature anomalies over most of the UK.

Remember, the CFS did not buy into the cold December hype.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's an impressive anticyclone being modelled by the Gfs 12z centred to the e / se next week bringing fine cool days and cold nights with slight frosts and fog patches across England and Wales, too much breeze for fog further n / w.

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp (2).png

And just to rub it in...if only it were June! I'll get my coat!:sorry:

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

For what it's worth, the CFS sub-monthly ensembles (last 4 runs) suggests a negative AO and a neutral to slightly negative NAO for most of January resulting in negative temperature anomalies over most of the UK.

Remember, the CFS did not buy into the cold December hype.

Well, it probably did at some point ;-)

GEFS out to T574 showing more neutral for both, but at that distance it is always hard to know if it is based on reality or climatology. 

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And just to rub it in...if only it were June! I'll get my coat!:sorry:

I'll take it now though - keep the rain at bay! :)

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

The CFS  really did go off on one with a snowy Christmas period a few weeks ago, I remember some of Gav's videos about it. 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Please use the banter thread for general chit chat or posts will start to go missing.

Thanks please continue.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

A big juicy anticyclone next week on the Ecm 12z..yummy:D

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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