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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Bit by bit by bit we're seeing the ECM mean ridge getting pulled back west. D15 for 00Z on top, 12Z below. 

 

ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

 

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Looks promising,

gfsnh-0-384.png

By day 384 it could be much colder....

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Having looked through the GEFS I remain confident that we will see snow in January. I'm just not very confident it will be in January 2017 :nea:

A pretty poor ensemble suite overall but on the plus side it will be gone in a few hours. 

 

 

 

Edited by Jason M

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First time I've seen proper 'potential' in the GEFS (in terms of cold uppers) this season. This is highlighted by the cluster of sub -5 uppers towards the end of the runs

graphe3_1000_228_51___.gif

This is for NW England. Mean tanks towards -5 at the very end.

I've been through the individual perts and a vast number of those -5 runs are cold zonality charts; mostly NW'lys to varying degrees. Little HLB on offer.

Edited by CreweCold

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So a trend for pressure over the south of the UK to remain high longer. The 0z has the mean hPa over 1030 till Jan 2 and the subsequent fall at a slower rate amongst the ensembles. The hi res runs maintain the UK heights and the Control is UK HP dominated till D16. The overall consensus is the high will bring average to slightly below temps though the op and control milder on this run.

graphe4_1000_306_141___Londres (1).gifgraphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (8).gif

Though both remain in a smaller cluster and the op looks like it is a bit too optimistic viz 2m temps. 

No real change with long wave pattern; two pulses of energy from the Azores that build the UK high, the second one looking most likely now to replenish the first rather than build the high further west.

Signs in FI that there will be some weak to middling MLB in the Pacific region which could lead to some amplification, though at the moment it is a cluster and no signal it will enable HLB'ing in the Atlantic or Pacific sector. So mid Jan remains the earliest for any developments re "potential" IMO.

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Firstly a quick look at tomorrow and we are still looking at storm force winds in the north of Scotland and Lerwick with possible gusts in excess of 90mph.

sfcgust_d02_17.pngsfcgust_d02_18.pngsfcgust_d02_20.png

This morning's GFS

The anomaly is much as has been indicated for a few runs now. Aleutian ridge and quite an intense Canadian vortex that combine to initiate some CAA into NW and NC North America, Down stream the amplification lessens but still the scenario of ridging to the SW of the UK with a relatively warm W/SW upper flow

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.png

Now to the nitty gritty. The second low tracks SE of Iceland on Sunday bringing some strong winds but hopefully not as strong as the previous one. An associate front will move SE across the UK During Sunday and Monday bringing patch rain to most places. Exceptionally mild with temps way above average.

Wednesday midnight sees the expected amplification well under way with HP centred just the SE surging north with the trough in mid Atlantic thus surface streamlines from the SE and temps back down to average bur a period of drier weather becoming established

gfs_z500a_natl_25.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_25.png

From here out to T240 it's all about the interaction between the trough and high pressure which on the surface translates in the HP being pushed south allowing fronts to impact the west  and north west before the next surge from the Azores.Much what you would expect with this pattern  So generally speaking dry but less in the NW with temps around average.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_39.png

I must admit I'm beginning to lose my MOJO

Edited by knocker

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As expected the next week looks like non event for majority of Europe except for SE (as nicely shown on the anomaly map knocker posted). The old saying about Christmas thaw will once again come true though there is nothing that can melt anyway :D Temps can reach 12 degree on 26th here.

The next period to watch for is probably beginning of January. Plenty of ENS show the dreaded potential but we all know how that usually ends.

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GFS and ECM this morning both show ridging in the pacific and the atlantic with both leaning towards moving a bulk of the trop PV towards the Siberian side of things but a small vortice is left in Canada. So that p word is there but it remains deep within FI but a pattern change does indeed loom for new year.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Nice to see the PV not looking in great shape at the end of the ecm

IMG_4629.PNG

2017 prospects starting to look better, much better! Next step, low heights into Europe 

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in the mid term, the Canadian vortex is pumping away across the Atlantic and will not allow any ridging to achieve enough amplitude. in the post day 10 period, we may see it pull west somewhat but there is enough evidence that an aleutian ridge will force another segment across from Siberia back to Canada to mean that the Canadian chunk reinvigorates and we may end up back at square one! 

the thought that a quick route to deep cold (as per some ens members ) exists looks a pretty long shot. can't see anything into view faster than a fortnight at the moment. 

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Note that a lobe from the Siberian vortex is bringing some brutal cold to Russia. Temps at Surgut are -56F which is about 60K below normal

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The Gfs 00z shows a very mild breezy / windy christmas day with temps in the 12-14c range across most of England and Wales. More unsettled for most of Ireland & Scotland but still on the mild side.:)

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

hgt500-1000.png

Edited by Frosty.

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The ECM this morning had pressure edging 1045mb middle of next week. The Uk December record is just over 1051mb.

IMG_0862.PNG

IMG_0864.PNG

Edited by Matthew Wilson

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Some parts of the UK are going to be very close to seeing record highs on Sunday

84-778UK.GIF?22-0

2m temps from Arpege

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?22-05

Edited by Summer Sun

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Question:

Could the tropical storm (Nock-ten), soon to become typhoon, have an impact on what happens in our part of the world? I.e. Aid/hinder cold chances for Europe 

Due to make landfall in the Philippines on Christmas Day and into Boxing Day.

IMG_4632.PNG

(image taken from Hurricane Pro)

Edited by karlos1983

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Just focusing beyond the holiday period and at present it's difficult to see a way out of this +ve NAO pattern with the Atlantic jet still looking quite flat until it runs over the UK high post Christmas.

Looking at the op runs and the gefs we can see pacific ridging towards the Alaskan area from about day 7 onwards but this as yet is not translating to any amplification downstream into the Atlantic.The Canadian vortex remaining the dominant player upstream.

gensnh-21-1-180.pngECH1-168.gif

 

The building Azores high post Christmas blocks off the Atlantic for a while with a dry outlook into the new year but any proper deep cold remains locked up to our north.

A look at the gefs graph for surface temperatures and rainfall for C.England

graphe6_1000_267_95___.gif

Temperatures looking fairly average or just below by day with maybe some night frosts but as always depending on cloud amounts.

I am afraid it all looks rather uninspiring for cold seekers until something kick starts a change in the overall wave pattern,let's hope for better come January.

 

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high moving west in to new year maybe north west  cooler -colder weather to come no big freeze yet but looking promising for January no more storms for the north west of Scotland by looking at this. :D

IMG_0059.PNG

IMG_0060.PNG

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16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some parts of the UK are going to be very close to seeing record highs on Sunday

84-778UK.GIF?22-0

2m temps from Arpege

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?22-05

I really don't think 12c is anywhere near a record?

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I really don't think 12c is anywhere near a record?

Record is 15.1c (England)could easily be achieved on Sunday. 

Edited by karlos1983

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6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I really don't think 12c is anywhere near a record?

But parts of the s / e could reach 14/15c..phew what a scorcher:D

Christmas blowtorch!

blowtorch.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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26 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM this morning had pressure edging 1045mb middle of next week. The Uk December record is just over 1051mb.

IMG_0862.PNG

IMG_0864.PNG

For me, the most notable thing about the winter so far has been the remarkably high levels of pressure at times across Europe, both modelled and actual.

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

The question is what do the other 26 members show . 

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I can see the headline come spring,

The Winter of wildcards that dealt us no hand.

As for this morning charts no change ECM Day 10 chart not as good as last night oh goodness there i go again talking about fi 10 day chart sounds a familiar theme this year..

ECH1-240 (3).gif

ECH1-240 (2).gif

Edited by booferking

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