Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Methuselah]

If the 06Z is anything to go by, we could find ourselves stuck in almost exactly the same position come the middle of January; that block looks very very stubborn, to me?

[ChillyJuju]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Anyone with a bet on Glasgow and maybe Edinburgh will be hoping GFS 06z is on the money

Precipitation charts 7 days away! Yeah the graphics are there to view but let's not kid/confuse ourselves that they will even come close to verifying or producing at that range. We struggle to predict 3 days in advance with regard to precipitation. The current corresponding 500 + SLP chart for that timeframe is T186 and shows nothing drastic or significant beyond a cool westerly for the entire UK . Will it intensify as T72 and closer draws near? The NH profile this morning says NOT *shrugs* would love a white something/anything but can't see anything that indicates it this side of 2017 so why post precip charts in FI showing that it may? I'm confused by that.

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If the 06Z is anything to go by, we could find ourselves stuck in almost exactly the same position come the middle of January; that block looks very very stubborn, to me?

A trend that has been showing for a while. The block has been in various locations but seems to be very strong. Any talk of a 'zonal train' would be rather ill advised at the moment methinks.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, ChillyJuju said:

Precipitation charts 7 days away! Yeah the graphics are there to view but let's not kid/confuse ourselves that they will even come close to verifying or producing at that range. We struggle to predict 3 days in advance with regard to precipitation. The current corresponding 500 + SLP chart for that timeframe is T186 and shows nothing drastic or significant beyond a cool westerly for the entire UK . Will it intensify as T72 and closer draws near? The NH profile this morning says NOT *shrugs* would love a white something/anything but can't see anything that indicates it this side of 2017 so why post precip charts in FI showing that it may? I'm confused by that.

Answer: This the model output discussion thread. We discuss model output here. It does what it says on the tin, what is confusing?

Edited December 17, 2016 by Seasonality

[karlos1983]

Running through the GEFS purbs and almost all of them show low pressure as good as over us. Varying from south westerlies and north westerlies <--majority 

[feb1991blizzard]

After walking along from West to East since Nov now, have we finally found the edge of the cliff?

Edited December 17, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[karyo]

The 6z stratospheric chart shows some interest in the 300+ hour range with the vortex getting displaced to Siberia.

However, this is the first run that shows this so only take note if the following runs show this.

[karlos1983]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

After walking along from West to East since Nov now, have we finally found the edge of the cliff?

 

Now that's what I've been waiting for!!! That's quite a majority of members going cold! 

[Scandinavian High.]

The  Atlantic  breaks through  around Christmas time but not for long as the high to east says no I'm the boss I'm here to stay maybe this is  first   Hint That high wants to push north west or north east more runs needed.

Edited December 17, 2016 by abbie123

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Now that's what I've been waiting for!!! That's quite a majority of members going cold! 

Some mild to moderate night frosts?

[West is Best]

Well now. Some will be disappointed in the short to medium term 'downgrade' on the 6z. But synoptically it's an interesting development, with the easterly block rebuilding. FI has lots of potential.

I still think we could see some very interesting runs in the next few days.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Now that's what I've been waiting for!!! That's quite a majority of members going cold! 

Although looks dry as well although tough to match up clusters without any colour coding.

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z stratospheric chart shows some interest in the 300+ hour range with the vortex getting displaced to Siberia.

However, this is the first run that shows this so only take note if the following runs show this.

That looks like its that sceuro ridge that does the trick but there's a warming underway at the top as well by the end of the run.

[markyo]

14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Answer: This the model output discussion thread. We discuss model output here. It does what it says on the tin, what is confusing?

I suggest you take a more tolerant attitude with regard to how the model output is viewed. Their view that a output further than 3 to 4 days is not to be trusted to much is a perfectly valid point. 

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

A trend that has been showing for a while. The block has been in various locations but seems to be very strong. Any talk of a 'zonal train' would be rather ill advised at the moment methinks.

Agreed; it would be foolhardy at best. I believe (or think I remember) that the Glosea model was hinting at HP sitting to our west, some time down the line? Something has to give?

[snowwman]

30 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The  Atlantic  breaks through  around Christmas time but not for long as the high to east says no I'm the boss I'm here to stay maybe this is  first   Hint That high wants to push north west or north east more runs needed.

Indeed, this is interesting. I noticed that yesterday's 12Z ECMWF retrograded the Siberian high, so this idea has support.

Edited December 17, 2016 by snowwman
Spelling

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although looks dry as well although tough to match up clusters without any colour coding.

That looks like its that sceuro ridge that does the trick but there's a warming underway at the top as well by the end of the run.

True, I am though always cautious of the 6z gfs as it seems to be more enthusiastic compared to other runs.

[karlos1983]

39 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Some mild to moderate night frosts?

Guess we need to see this evening, and whether or not day time temperature bottoms out as well, as it's pretty difficult to say weather this would be cold days as well as nights. But I'm just happy to see it head the right direction and not without support.  

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Answer: This the model output discussion thread. We discuss model output here. It does what it says on the tin, what is confusing?

Discuss by all means but ppn charts as suggested at longer time scales than 24 hours even 12 hours are notoriously wide of the mark at times in summer let alone winter. To suggest anything other than a pretty slight bet of snow for any low lying site in the UK at that distance is fraught with at least  8 more  variables and that after predicting correctly when and where any ppn will fall.

As most know I try to use 500 mb anomaly charts to give a general idea of the weather type, see their latest outputs below

Al  3 I use show an upper trough as the major feature, so not settled in the 6-14 day time frame, other than bewteen weather systems. How deep these may be and their exact track is as always not something the 500 mb charts at this range will show. They do give an indication of surface temperatures though. Most of the time looks like the UK will be in Pm air (Polar Maritime), so values at/around or a little below seem the form bet. If one of the weather systems deepens markedly then a brief incursion of milder Tm (Tropical Maritime ) is likely.

Snow would most likely confined to the higher ground of Scotland, northern England and possibly Wales along with N Ireland. A small prob of falling snow for some northern parts but unlikely to setlle for any length of time unless a deep low pulls in more Arctic Maritime (Am) air briefly behind one of these lows. The timing of any low, deep or not so deep is something to pick up from the synoptic models as we get nearer to T+00. So interesting model watching and many variations  on their output will probably be seen in here. So long as folk keep personal digs out that is fine.

ECMWF-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Just to add, the 500 mb charts show that the probability of any high pressure west of the UK is pretty much a none starter in the 6-14 day time frame, unless of course, they are very wrong in what they are showing, and have been showing for 3-4 days.

Edited December 17, 2016 by johnholmes
to make one sentence make a bit more sense!

[ArHu3]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Guess we need to see this evening, and whether or not day time temperature bottoms out as well, as it's pretty difficult to say weather this would be cold days as well as nights. But I'm just happy to see it head the right direction and not without support.  

Here are better formatted plumes for the Netherlands, nothing to get excited about, if it's not exciting here it sure isn't exciting over on you end (gemiddelde = average, mediaan =median)

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&r=midden

[Iceaxecrampon]

Excellent 06Z upgrade at T+186 Christmas Eve for Ireland and N and NW altitudes as the front passes through SW - unsure what holds for land at lower elevation though maybe a festive sleety mix?

 

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, ChillyJuju said:

And the discussion there was what? Don't get lippy and try to be clever, it was nothing more than a chart post to raise hopes of SNOW! Gav knows that and I was merely asking why he's doing it.

 Lots of newbies to chart reading and forecasting would be flummoxed by that and that was why I expressed confusion. 

 

No one is being lippy. You were questioning why charts showing precipitation 7 days away were being posted in light of them not being reliable and not fitting with your own interpretation. I answered you, we look at a day ahead as well as a week ahead. It is all part of the the thread. A 7 day precipitation chart shows a solution generated by the model so is perfectly valid to show here. You need to calm down a bit. This isn't a pub at throwing out time and I'm not going to fight you or engage in bickering. And if being clever means having a calm, logical discussion then I am guilty as charged.

[Frosty.]

I would love to see some snow before December is over and out, the Gfs 6z obliges! it even gives us a chilly christmas day..who would have thought that was possible

Edited December 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

 FI has lots of potential.

 

If the models have been consistent in any way over the past six weeks, it's been in this respect.

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would love to see some snow before December is over and out, the Gfs 6z obliges! it even gives us a chilly christmas day..who would have thought that was possible

Yes frosty a good 06Z -  all to play for as they say - we are at the top of that rollercoaster again.

[Frosty.]

Just now, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes frosty a good 06Z -  all to play for as they say - we are at the top of that rollercoaster again.

Agreed, even when the high builds in it stays chilly..I just want winter like temperatures, surely not too much to ask for is it?