Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Summer Sun]

ECM

19th to 25th

Temps slightly above average in most of Scotland (a weaker signal in the west) maybe a touch below for NI and ROI. For England and Wales, the signal is weak

Rain is above average for just about all the far east of England and Scotland has a weaker signal

26th to 1st

A stronger signal for temperatures in this period and that is above average - weaker rain signals though possibly a touch below average in the south

2nd to 8th

Temps a touch below normal for England, Wales, NI, ROI a weaker signal for Scotland - rain slightly below average with a weaker signal for Scotland. Possibly an indication of a chilly high building early into 2017?

[stewfox]

21 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Looking at GEFS ENS, majority of them show coldest Christmas in 10 years so definitely chance for something more seasonal but I won't be surprised if they flip.

Is that Czech or uk ?

Dec xmas day 2010 was..

Christmas. Maximum temperatures on Christmas Day widely remained well below freezing (even in central London, St James' Park recorded a maximum of only -0.4 °C), and in south Wales Llysdinam, Powys recorded a maximum of -7.8 °C - a new December record for Wales.

Edited December 16, 2016 by stewfox

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t168 is showing the deepening low out in the Atlantic what remains uncertain is what track it will take and if it does hit the NW how quickly it will clear

GFS has it hanging around for 2 days before clearing for boxing day

ECM has us unsettled throughout Christmas

GEM is similar to ECM as well

 

[daz_4]

12 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Is that Czech or uk ?

Czech. You can see the temps for December 10 for my location below. 

http://www.in-pocasi.cz/archiv/archiv-bar-graph.img.php?stanice=ostrava&mesic=12&rok=2010

It will be much colder here if ENS are to be believed  At least on 24th, following days will probably be warmer.

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by daz_4

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

The period from Christmas to New Year is in 90% always warm in central Europe so I don't expect much. Even great Decembers are defenseless against foehn wind from Alps around 24th. It's one of these weird phenomenons you can count on.

Looking at GEFS ENS, majority of them show coldest Christmas in 10 years so definitely chance for something more seasonal but I won't be surprised if they flip.

Hi Daz, you're correct. I remember well the Christmas of 2011 as a good example. Light snow on evening of 23rd then a rapid warm up to around 7 degrees on Xmas day. Last year was a pretty horrific December for central Europe as well as the UK. Many British people think Poland is a frozen wasteland in the winter, but it certainly isn't Siberia and there is significant variation in temperature. I am confident it will be chillier this year. The warmest runs from the relatively underwhelming 00z GFS showing the very warmest members at around +2C and ECM has much colder options too. Keep positive.

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Hi Daz, you're correct. I remember well the Christmas of 2011 as a good example. Light snow on evening of 23rd then a rapid warm up to around 7 degrees on Xmas day. Last year was a pretty horrific December for central Europe as well as the UK. Many British people think Poland is a frozen wasteland in the winter, but it certainly isn't Siberia and there is significant variation in temperature. I am confident it will be chillier this year. The warmest runs from the relatively underwhelming 00z GFS showing the very warmest members at around +2C and ECM has much colder options too. Keep positive.

I'm off to Kraków next Friday. It's looking cold but no more than it was here at the start of the month, at least as far as I can see on the forecast. Of course last year when I was in Warsaw it went from 14C max on Boxing Day to -1C max by the 30th so who knows.

Could do with westerlies not taking over that far east. I'm still nonethewiser as to whether it will be anticyclonic, under a beasterly or the Atlantic reaching right across Europe.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'm off to Kraków next Friday. It's looking cold but no more than it was here at the start of the month, at least as far as I can see on the forecast. Of course last year when I was in Warsaw it went from 14C max on Boxing Day to -1C max by the 30th so who knows.

Could do with westerlies not taking over that far east. I'm still nonethewiser as to whether it will be anticyclonic, under a beasterly or the Atlantic reaching right across Europe.

Hi MP-R, I'm impressed you spelled Kraków correctly with the accent on the o  The sudden drops in temperature are one of the interesting parts of a continental climate I agree. So many options have been shown over the last few days from bitter double digits below zero to much milder. Interesting fact, Kraków has an Oceanic climate, one of the cities furthest east in Europe to boast this classification. Enjoy your trip and be sure to enjoy some of the locally brewed piwo (beer), there are loads of bars that have microbreweries now and the cellar bars around the town square are good fun when you're visiting. Wesołych Świąt Bożego Narodzenia (Merry Christmas and a happy New Year!)

[Chris.R]

Is this the "Lets visit Europe" thread now or what! How's the 06Z doing? :-) 

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Is this the "Lets visit Europe" thread now or what! How's the 06Z doing? :-) 

Ha ha . A bit of friendly discussion that did have a weather related slant does no harm. Here is some output from the 06z. The xmas storm is meeting more resistance from the block and we have lower 850s overall so more chance of the wintry stuff. Not a bad 06z so far and further tweaks to come could mean some xmas cheer for coldies. Even @knocker in tropical Cornwall gets some colder uppers!

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Huge differences on the 850s across Europe on the GFS later next week. All up in the air still. 

 

6z on Christmas morning showing -4 uppers as far as Midlands and Wales with -6 uppers just off the coast of Co Donegal in NW Ireland. Could we see something white with a bit of altitude on the big day? Hope so!

 

 

That's some serious depth of cold out towards Greenland but will it ever leave their shores. I cannot convince myself to look past the 21st/22nd December right now, but I have a feeling the period immediately around Christmas Day and towards the close of the year will be a memorable one. Everything but the kitchen sink springs to mind, so yes I favour an active period! Snow for some too with not everyone joining in the fun and a lot of transient stuff.

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[weirpig]

Well while its quiet i havnt seem much posting on the GFS Parra   it has a nasty storm hitting just before Christmas  for the south  with possibly a few flakes in the air for the big day.  One of many options  Edit  looked at wrong run

Edited December 16, 2016 by weirpig

[carinthian]

Ok we have pictures at 204t from the latest GFS run. What it shows is a massive block out east stretching for thousands of miles and the UK somewhere in a sort of battle zone. The upper wind flow looks like a set up for some form of trough distruption in NW  Europe. However, presently I would not look much further that 120 h . Great chart watching to see how things unfold. That  massive block has potential to deliver some serious cold, eventually !

 C

[daz_4]

25 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

 

You are one day behind. This is 6z from yesterday 

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Ha ha . A bit of friendly discussion that did have a weather related slant does no harm. Here is some output from the 06z. The xmas storm is meeting more resistance from the block and we have lower 850s overall so more chance of the wintry stuff. Not a bad 06z so far and further tweaks to come could mean some xmas cheer for coldies. Even @knocker in tropical Cornwall gets some colder uppers!

 Yes indeed :-) and I can talk, I was the one carrying on with the potato thing last night. Sounding positive. 

 

[Sperrin]

6 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

You are one day behind. This is 6z from yesterday 

Oops!! Post removed.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Sperrin

[snowice]

20 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

That's some serious depth of cold out towards Greenland but will it ever leave their shores. I cannot convince myself to look past the 21st/22nd December right now, but I have a feeling the period immediately around Christmas Day and towards the close of the year will be a memorable one. Everything but the kitchen sink springs to mind, so yes I favour an active period! Snow for some too with not everyone joining in the fun and a lot of transient stuff.

 

 Memorable one FI is 120 at the moment but it dose look like from the 6Z that a lot of pm air is about to invade the British isles and with it snow chances at elevated  levels..

[gottolovethisweather]

9 minutes ago, snowice said:

 Memorable one FI is 120 at the moment but it dose look like from the 6Z that a lot of pm air is about to invade the British isles and with it snow chances at elevated  levels..

 

Yep, as in not a static "nothing happening" with the weather over Christmas type set up. I can almost see the daily newspaper headlines already. 

[Seasonality]

11 minutes ago, snowice said:

 Memorable one FI is 120 at the moment but it dose look like from the 6Z that a lot of pm air is about to invade the British isles and with it snow chances at elevated  levels..

This is a repeating theme, which is nice. 

[Frosty.]

Nice to see some cold zonality on the Gfs 6z, later next week into the christmas period looks very unsettled and generally cold with spells of wet and windy weather but with some snow and frost around at times too!.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

A cold Christmas day with temps firmly in single figures driest for longest the further east you are with some snow possible on high ground in Scotland and maybe Wales later in the night

[chris55]

A tendency for the jet to be further south on the 6z with the Uk in some colder air as we approach Christmas. And attempts to get some energy down into europe as the run progresses in the mid term.

If we could get a little bit more disruption on that incoming low there could be some snowy surprises as we head into xmas weekend.

 

[Summer Sun]

Wet over Christmas then turning drier towards the end of the year and start of 2017

[JBMWeatherForever]

Doesn't look like the cold zonality will be around for very long, thou maybe it will give some of us some transient snow around Christmas (and it should feel cold enough).

But looks like after that with such a strong block that it is only a matter of time before cold air reaches us from the east. I'm always optimistic, but I really think we have lots to be optimistic about in the further outlook. We have a good chance of getting the right synoptics in the heart of winter.

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Doesn't look like the cold zonality will be around for very long, thou maybe it will give some of us some transient snow around Christmas (and it should feel cold enough).

But looks like after that with such a strong block that it is only a matter of time before cold air reaches us from the east. I'm always optimistic, but I really think we have lots to be optimistic about in the further outlook. We have a good chance of getting the right synoptics in the heart of winter.

Just been watching that, JBM - a potential 1052mb stonker @ T+384, in association with what (to my ever-optimistic viewpoint) looks like a relocating wodge of PV? But, will it happen? Who knows? Modern-day chickens come without entrails!

[Dennis]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just been watching that, JBM - a potential 1052mb stonker @ T+384, in association with what (to my ever-optimistic viewpoint) looks like a relocating wodge of PV? But, will it happen? Who knows? Modern-day chickens come without entrails!

Some retro progress possible