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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

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Just now, More Snow said:

Potato????

 

Well it looks like one and just as likely to bring us snow...

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8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Baked or roasted! 

We will probably end up with mash!

eagerly awaiting the ECM ensembles. Not sure potato will verify though...Did they eventually update last night? 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

gfsnh-0-384-27.png

I know it's in FI but that chart screams 'potato'

Great to see a more positive tone on here tonight!! Seriously though, this chart is not out of sync with mean, and not completely unlike some of the ECM charts at that range (less the Euro low heights) - they're all saying goodbye storms after Christmas.

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1 hour ago, -uksnow- said:

And so the drama is dragged out further, 18z 'revenge of the block'. The question is, is this an over-reaction to a slight change in jet angle, or the tomorrows trend?

Screen Shot 2016-12-15 at 22.21.29.png

This just keeps us on the wrong side of cold though.We need alot more negative tilt and a thousand miles further sw to go under.Nowhere near for me especially with the mother vortex spawning it's little runners in a anti clockwise motion.And the block is poorly orientated. Ithe needs a torpedo shape through scandi and above us.

Sorry it just ain't happening.And for me,I don't know why people get so fixed up on every run.Even some of the more experienced posters who at times seem to contradict themselves by preaching to people not to get hung up on this run or that ect .

Sorry mods it's been awful on here today sifting through all the non model talk and people big upping and belittling.

 

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The biggest roundabout in the Arctic and we still end up with these uppers. That would be are luck right there:sorry:

gensnh-17-1-384.png

gensnh-17-0-384 (1).png

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Just now, booferking said:

The biggest roundabout in the Arctic and we still end up with these uppers. That would be are luck right there:sorry:

gensnh-17-1-384.png

gensnh-17-0-384 (1).png

Ahhh the dreaded northern based -AO

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Before we all get stood up in front of the headmaster here's a graph.

IMG_4134.GIF

unfortunately not what I was hoping for after this mornings little group of members that went cold, that hasn't gathered momentum this evening. Bulk look very average in terms of 2m temperatures

in comparison to recent weeks, there is much better agreement, nowhere near as much scatter. Shannon releasing her grip??

Edited by karlos1983

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5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Ahhh the dreaded northern based -AO

Northern based -ao?

That's central for a start and other places around the hemisphere miss out.

We've been unlucky in the recent setup and may well be again 3 wks into Jan. But it's the way the cards fall and where the BritishIsles are placed.

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

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Thanks Ian 

appreciate the update. A good signal to have heading into winter proper! Feet firmly mounted to the ground though for now!

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GEFS perbs looking like a marked improvement compared to 12z - all but one has at least -4C 850hpa in parts of UK at T+162 a few of them even bring cold off the continent, rather than through a polar maritime airmass. I'm not swaying with a mild Christmas period, I expect the hills of N England/Scotland to do quite well.

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Baked or roasted! 

Don't be silly! :rofl:

260090-potatoflakes__88361.1310747039.48

 

Here's the negative 2m temp anomaly for first week of Jan. SS will likely post the others tomorrow.

meTz20161215_0000+60000.png

Edited by Gael_Force

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Wow. My overnight visit to this forum for updates from the pro's (and more than useful semi pro's) has revealed the place has turned a little crazy tonight. What's happened?

Aaaah well, never mind, I have a rare gut feeling that the earlier references in this forum to a possible front loaded winter should really have referred to January being a month we'll talk about for years to come, and not for the amount of rainfall like the past few years! The models don't seem to be going that way  as yet but let's see eh?

Thanks Fergie for your continued information. Much appreciated.

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8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Though you were of duty until after Christmas Mucka

C.S

Who told you that?

Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. :D

I will be greatly limiting my posts for a while though, no good to anyone when it stops being fun and I am talking about myself here not other forum members.

 

It would take an awful lot of luck to reel that puddle of cold in off the continent but I like the idea of the jet digging further South, gives a few more options to see something wintry, even if it can only be transient for now.

gfsnh-0-162.pnggfsnh-1-168.png

.

Edited by Mucka

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Many off topic posts have had to go missing.

Strictly Model Discussion only in here please. 

 

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A fascinating 00z. The block is holding on in western Russia in the the more reliable timeframes but with such volatile output where can we say FI is right now?! All sorts of interesting results from the block's fight against the Atlantic. My favourite chart from the 00z is this nice little cold pool striking the far SE a glancing blow. All blown away in FI but FI being particularly "FIckle" at the moment we can leave it be. ( yes bad joke and yes I do know what FI means, hats off to you Ricardo Montalban)

gfseu-0-144.png

gfseu-1-144 (1).png

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Certainly an eye needs to be kept on developments leading up to Xmas as this deep low could certainly impact NW Scotland as it stands with surface gusts 80Kts + in the southern quadrant.

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_10.png

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Further to knockers post on the 46, upper temps  anomolies remain above average (though mean shows sub zero post day 18 countrywide). As we have  seen on other posts, that will translate to surface cold as we likely have a weak continental flow. The modelled drain away of high euro anomolies to our south through Jan is what is important for this seeking white stuff  but getting that to verify would be the trick! 

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Certainly an eye needs to be kept on developments leading up to Xmas as this deep low could certainly impact NW Scotland as it stands with surface gusts 80Kts + in the southern quadrant.

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_10.png

@knocker would an eye also need to be kept on this "little" feature for the Northern half of Ireland? 

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1 minute ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

@knocker would an eye also need to be kept on this "little" feature for the Northern half of Ireland? 

Indeed it would.

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Further to knockers post on the 46, upper temps  anomolies remain above average (though mean shows sub zero post day 18 countrywide). As we have  seen on other posts, that will translate to surface cold as we likely have a weak continental flow. The modelled drain away of high euro anomolies to our south through Jan is what is important for this seeking white stuff  but getting that to verify would be the trick! 

In what time frame do you foresee a weak continental flow Blue?

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