Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

If you talking cold anomalies then that should read NW Canada moving south to cover most of the United States

That cold Even more impressive by day 10 - bastardi is going to be insufferable! 

Edited December 28, 2016 by bluearmy

[shotski]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Even more. Pressive by day 10 - bastardi is going to be insufferable! 

And how about Europe for the same time frame Knocker ?

[Weathizard]

Interesting developments at day 5 on the GFS 6z, more energy going under

 

6z above, 0z below.

 

 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interesting developments at day 5 on the GFS 6z, more energy going under

 

6z above, 0z below.

 

 

Yes but that shortwave in northeast Canada remains a pain as it stops our high from retrogressing west.

[Nick F]

I think there is always a danger of getting too far ahead of ourselves and seeing a not so great signal from an ENS mean of one run beyond day 10 and accepting this may be a downward spiral. Likewise I suppose one run of ENS mean that shows deep cold and snow nirvana.

Comparing the EPS and GEFS 500mb mean and anomaly charts for northern hemisphere in 11-15 day period, differences are apparent, as I think as has already been touched upon. The differences I can see are that 11-15 day 00z EPS mean/anom pours deep cold across western N America initially before sloshing it east across the rest of NAM (Joe B bath tub analogy) which although initially beats the SE ridge down there and drives a southerly tracking jet across the N Atlantic, eventually it forces a ridge into SW Europe as low heights spread east across the N Atlantic from N America. On the other hand, 11-15 day GEFS mean/anom keeps the cold vortex over western N America and maintains the +ve height anomalies over far N Atlantic and Greenland with -ve anomaly over N and E Europe.

So, in a nutshell, the ENS don't enspire a great deal of confidence past day 10 over the N Atlantic even in the means, though one thing they do agree on is a strong Alaskan ridge persisting through to day 15.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Nick F

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes but that shortwave in northeast Canada remains a pain as it stops our high from retrogressing west.

As usual, only once in a blue moon do we get any retrogression without shortwave dramas popping up. The high is just stuck in no mans land as are we, frustrating.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Weathizard

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

As usual, only once in a blue moon do we get any retrogression without shortwave dramas popping up. The high is just stuck in no mans land as are we, frustrating.

Our next opportunity is around the 200 hours range when that massive low in the eastern states forms. There is a chance for the Atlantic high to amplify. It probably won't make it in this run but it is something to watch.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Our next opportunity is around the 200 hours range when that massive low in the eastern states forms. There is a chance for the Atlantic high to amplify. It probably won't make it in this run but it is something to watch.

At 200h it really is a waste of time looking at what might happen at the surface. But if it floats your boat then enjoy the roller coaster.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

At 200h it really is a waste of time looking at what might happen at the surface. But if it floats your boat then enjoy the roller coaster.

This is what you fail to understand John, many of us enjoy the roller coaster! So I will continue if you don't mind.

[johnholmes]

Just now, karyo said:

This is what you fail to understand John, many of us enjoy the roller coaster! So I will continue if you don't mind.

Not at all but each to our own

[Aaki Khan]

De Ja Vu Feeling..  GFS 06Z - T207

 

[Weathizard]

It must be said there has been quite a large trend on that lobe of the PV over Canada/newfoundland to stengthen again, it was progged to weaken significantly, I fear if we miss the next chances we could be punished on the counter attack by that,

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It must be said there has been quite a large trend on that lobe of the PV over Canada/newfoundland to stengthen again, it was progged to weaken significantly, I fear if we miss the next chances we could be punished on the counter attack by that,

If it materialises then let's hope our high gets pulled west occassionally to allow some northwesterlies. If it moves east it will be painful.

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It must be said there has been quite a large trend on that lobe of the PV over Canada/newfoundland to stengthen again, it was progged to weaken significantly, I fear if we miss the next chances we could be punished on the counter attack by that,

Yes, the pv set to strengthen rapidly yet again over Canada. It really scuppers our chances of deep meaningful cold. However, on the bright side, I woke up to a winter wonderland here, thick frost, clear blue skies and bright sunshine. The frost will linger all day. Most of us want BOOM charts and yes, these are not forthcoming this season (so far) but my advice is to look no further than 5 - 6 days out. This takes us to the first few days of Jan. Now look back at the archives for the first few days of Jan and I can assure you that the vast majority show mild, wet crud for the UK. This year doesn't

[Gowon]

46 minutes ago, shotski said:

And how about Europe for the same time frame Knocker ?

You're asking the wrong person, that's bluearmy's post.

[EML Network]

It looks like were stuck in the same rut that we have been in ever since December began.

High pressure edging in from the West sitting over the UK for  a few days as it slowly makes it's way South and East into Central Europe. 

 

So we get a few days of cold weather as the high approaches, then we have surface cold and frosty nights, then as the pressure slips south and east the wind direction changes to south easterly and then southerly and finally a south westerly component, we might then get an errant low pressure system sliding over the top, before another high pressure system rolls in slowly from the Atlantic and the whole process repeats. 

 

Each cycle seems to take 7-10 days before were back where we started, 

 

As an avid runner I'm actually quite happy that the weather is staying predominantly dry, but as a weather enthusiast I really am getting a bit bored of it now.

 

One thing I am noticing though is that each high pressure system seems to make less and less inroads, so if that trend continues perhaps we might end up with a high that stalls well to the west and give an opportunity for something from either the north or east to take hold.

 

But for now, it's a 2 day cold snap at the weekend and then IMO eyes are to the west for another high and we'll see where that one goes...or doesn't as the case might be.

If I was looking for a deeper and more sustained chance of cold I would be looking for some time around the 12th Jan (that's just a hunch)

[swfc]

It would seem atm that mlb in the atlantic is the form horse .The pacific ridge is pushing and pulling but the pv is still holding its ground as such.Reading Gp posts it would seem the signal is there for something more interesting for coldies down the line.Imo if we keep a signal for atlantic block then the chance for some cold zonal nnw winds ete remain.Still december and all to play for given dec- early jan are regarded as stormy so steady as she goes.This weeks great nhp charts came out of the blue and altho went it shows that in 24-48 hours in our neck of the woods anything can happen!!! 

 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

You're asking the wrong person, that's bluearmy's post.

It's acailabie on meteociel so really shouldn't have to shotski!

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's acailabie on meteociel so really shouldn't have to shotski!

They're a bit different.. Knockers one looks colder!

[knocker]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

That cold Even more impressive by day 10 - bastardi is going to be insufferable! 

 

Nothing new there then ba

[Ali1977]

The mean at day 9 is much better than the Op.

[-uksnow-]

GEFS 06z mean is far better than the 00z suite, and the control looking much more ECMesque with regards to our second shot at greenland height rises.

 

 

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's acailabie on meteociel so really shouldn't have to shotski!

It is, but you don't get all the lovely colours on meteociel 

[feb1991blizzard]

Much stronger mean ridge on the GEFS and further up into Greenland, not just Atlantic, thus bringing very cold uppers down I would suspect in FI on individual members, cant comment for sure on individual perbs as haven't got time to go through them.

[Summer Sun]