Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Anyone hoping to find salvation in the CFS, don't bother. I found a toppler in 3 weeks time, but that's about your lot.

That felt slightly desperate, and for nothing 

 

Apparently the CFS verification stats are held under armed guard  in a secret bunker incase the truth gets out and they pull the plug on the funding!

[Ravelin]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking into spring and the high is still shown to be close by to the UK right through to the 3 month period covering March to May

It'd be quite incredible if that turned out to be true, surely?

Now I know that it wouldn't preclude rain, even in an overall blocked scenario, but since most of our water reservoirs are filled up by rainfall in the winter months the term "water shortages" might become quite prevalent come summer.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Apparently the CFS verification stats are held under armed guard  in a secret bunker incase the truth gets out and they pull the plug on the funding!

Well if they pull the plug, perhaps it will reverse the flow....... worth a shot.

I'll get my coat

[Nouska]

23 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It'd be quite incredible if that turned out to be true, surely?

Now I know that it wouldn't preclude rain, even in an overall blocked scenario, but since most of our water reservoirs are filled up by rainfall in the winter months the term "water shortages" might become quite prevalent come summer.

That would certainly be a dire situation down here if projection becomes reality.

How did it perform for last JFM .....

GloSea forecast.  

Reanalysis            

Edited December 12, 2016 by Nouska

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Mean maps show above average 2m temps for Jan to March

Same for 850's

Pressure higher than average

Rain nothing worse than average

I don't buy into the 850's right across the polar regions and Scandinavia being 1-2c above average yet pressure being lower.

[Methuselah]

Time for the 12Z, and a 1962 analogue is guaranteed: it'll look like psychedelic wallpaper!

Edited December 12, 2016 by Ed Stone

[feb1991blizzard]

So heights are going to average out higher over 3 months across the whole globe????

 

EDIT :  Guess where the only low anomaly in the entire Northern hemisphere is as well - The southern tip of Greenland!

Edited December 12, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So heights are going to average out higher over 3 months across the whole globe????

Probably...... 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So heights are going to average out higher over 3 months across the whole globe????

It must be the MJO not working.....again

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So heights are going to average out higher over 3 months across the whole globe????

What concerns me is that area of lowest pressure is the Southern tip of Greenland and the one of the highest areas the UK. Looks very Bartlett like.

That looks like simple climatology for this neck of the woods, easy to forecast.

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So heights are going to average out higher over 3 months across the whole globe????

Well the bad news is that is a classic +NAO signature, low heights to the north west with strong positive heights to our south.

The Good news is that these longer rangers are going from stunning to cack and back again. Part of me suspects that this wild-card winter could very well result in many meteorological agencies going back to the drawing board in regards to these computer models. I get the feeling that guidance will be very poor. Tracking teleconnective signals and watching the medium range models will probably be a better bet, so the CFS monthly, JMA monthly, EC46.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It must be the MJO not working.....again

BFTP

Clearly, we should stick with the phases of the moon, I guess, Fred?

[Sprites]

Certainly looking mild and cold and dry, with rain wind and settled weather most days at times in the far North and South.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Clearly, we should stick with the phases of the moon, I guess, Fred?

None are working Pete!! :)). At least the complete lack of morthern blocking was right.... 

Edited December 12, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well the bad news is that is a classic +NAO signature, low heights to the north west with strong positive heights to our south.

The Good news is that these longer rangers are going from stunning to cack and back again. Part of me suspects that this wild-card winter could very well result in many meteorological agencies going back to the drawing board in regards to these computer models. I get the feeling that guidance will be very poor. Tracking teleconnective signals and watching the medium range models will probably be a better bet, so the CFS monthly, JMA monthly, EC46.

I actually think it is a good model GENERALLY and it looks like its cottoned on to the non-Northern blocking till mid Jan signal, I just think that those charts make a mockery and don't do the Met Office any favours, when Ian Fergusson describes them they always sound different, Ian's disclosure of the data has been pretty accurate as to whats happened over the last few years, I either think they should release the whole data set or non at all as I think the maps in that format are useless but very much believe the model is useful when used properly.

[phil nw.]

As someone posted previously although on the face of it we are looking at some uninspiring charts for cold the second prize of a cold frosty Christmas period is not off the table.

GFS 06z run shows with some better placement of the Scandi heights  what could be achieved- we would soon see the temperatures fall.

If nothing else the European blocking will hold back the worst of what the Atlantic can throw at us for a while.Let's hope that if we get better signals from the Tropics this can amplify the pattern to really see that high push north and see some trough disruption heading towards the Med.

The12 z s will be coming out soon let's hope for some Christmas cheer. 

Edited December 12, 2016 by phil nw.

[Seasonality]

40 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Exactly. This Winter is testament to that. No point getting hung up on what LRF show but many do and its rinse repeat each time.

Amusing how the same people who have been busy rubbishing long range forecasts are now gleefully crowing about one. 

[Nouska]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually think it is a good model GENERALLY and it looks like its cottoned on to the non-Northern blocking till mid Jan signal, I just think that those charts make a mockery and don't do the Met Office any favours, when Ian Fergusson describes them they always sound different, Ian's disclosure of the data has been pretty accurate as to whats happened over the last few years, I either think they should release the whole data set or non at all as I think the maps in that format are useless but very much believe the model is useful when used properly.

Precisely!

They run it regularly but we see a snapshot in time which is frozen for a month. As CS says, we need to update our understanding with the weekly products to get the evolving picture.

[MattH]

1 minute ago, Nouska said:

Precisely!

They run it regularly but we see a snapshot in time which is frozen for a month. As CS says, we need to update our understanding with the weekly products to get the evolving picture.

Just browsing and seen this and other comments regarding the imagery from the Met Office and yes, take these images with the usual large dose of salt as you would any seasonal model really, but particularly this raw data. As Tony and I discovered when producing the winter forecast, the usefulness of these highly 'broadbrush' images essentially means that, in theory, you could line 10 people up and all ask them what the outcome would be and you'd get a variety of answers as to what may or may not happen. Behind the scenes, including the likes of the EC Seasonal, EUROSIP, the output is far more detailed. The usual case of allowing some free information but without giving too much away for all the usual and obvious reasons and behind the scenes the data is certainly more extensive and comprehensive.

Always worth a look, but from experience I wouldn't place much faith into the output they give, especially when a flip has happened like in this latest update and especially so if you're trying to gauge what a 3 month period will lead to, using these images, regarding our 'tiny little island' within a 'tiny little part' of the globe for the next 2.5months or so etc etc...

Regards, Matt.

[Scandinavian High.]

47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking into spring and the high is still shown to be close by to the UK right through to the 3 month period covering March to May

So that means cold then.

[EastAnglian]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Amusing how the same people who have been busy rubbishing long range forecasts are now gleefully crowing about one. 

Precisely, the short range models are pointing to European blocking and a frosty Christmas which I for one would be happy with. I just hope the models are over their constant flip flopping now! 

[FetchCB]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually think it is a good model GENERALLY and it looks like its cottoned on to the non-Northern blocking till mid Jan signal, I just think that those charts make a mockery and don't do the Met Office any favours, when Ian Fergusson describes them they always sound different, Ian's disclosure of the data has been pretty accurate as to whats happened over the last few years, I either think they should release the whole data set or non at all as I think the maps in that format are useless but very much believe the model is useful when used properly.

I think Ian did explain that these models are used to guide as opposed to outright forecast.

The maps that have been posted on here do carry a health warning from the Met in regards to the conclusions that may be drawn from them and from reading the material that accompanies the charts i would say that they owe just as much to statistical science as they do to actual NWP.

 

 

[Dennis]

some nice news to hear for poss winter late dec 2016 Europe: USA hasnt the cold anymore  

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Dennis

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Tamara said:

this is one winter that doesn't have any inevitability about it - either way

It appears to feel like it to some, but we are not slow dancing in a burning room like we were this time last year. There is an abundance to keep us occupied 

 

Indeed. GWO reality v forecast continues to show a substantial disconnect. Forecast constantly wanting to drag GLAAM into a negative orbit - atmosphere continues to stick 2 fingers up and travel back towards 5.

 

 

One has to assume that if the models cannot get a correct handle on the global momentum budget then long distance forecasts have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So that means cold then.

No the core of heights (darker colours) are over Southern UK and France, SW winds with a Bartlett type, drier in the South, wetter for Scotland, very mild everywhere - That's a very broad brush statement and obviously it wouldn't apply to the whole 3 months but that would be the 'default' if you like over the 3 months, There would be greater instances of that type of setup set against climatology.

Edited December 12, 2016 by feb1991blizzard