Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Man With Beard]

Maybe there's something wrong with me but I can't stop thinking about August, when a southerly seemed nailed on only for the pattern to shift west at T96 resulting in an easterly ... just can't let go of this one yet, do I need help guys???!

[JBMWeatherForever]

If it wasn't for times like these, then it wouldn't be so enjoyable when consistently cold synoptics do turn up. I am still convinced that this will start to happen this week, pointing us to a much colder period from or soon after Christmas. To my eyes everything points to increasingly strong anticyclonic conditions later this month, and this is what the ECM and GFS are currently showing as a confirmation of this trend. However I believe that the trend will be our friend and that we will eventually end up with something from the East and not the default South West.       

[damianslaw]

Agreed te upcoming week out of the way, and the outputs will change. Gosh its been a miserable day in here forum wise, one of the worst in a long time, we've hit a low point, but its not 2013, 2014 or 2015 far from it. Last word from me - perspective can we keep some as the winter unfolds, it seems that many people don't have any. 

Edited December 11, 2016 by damianslaw

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

This December reminds me of many in the past 3 decades including 1988 and 2006 and to be honest it's difficult t see a way out of this pattern.

The PV is now almost entrenched over Canada while the Euro Slug seems resilient to any attack, you can point to any tele connections you want but until the basics change the outlook for cold will remain very poor.

I would now like to see a reset of the NH profile with the collapse of the Euro High and a return to moderate zonality, at least then we would have the prospect of a two or three day toppled and a potential rise of pressure to the NW.

This current set up was never going to result in a Scandinavia High and a reset is our only option.

Without it a winter like 1988/89 could be on the cards.

Andy

No thanks 

I can see how that may appeal to those in a locale such as yours, but for me cold rain and wind, nah you can keep it. 

Im also very hesitant of this reset the pattern opinion. That was the pattern last year, and it can be hard to get back out from! 

Mind you it would probably help the Scottish ski resorts!

[Banbury]

46 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed Nick, it looks like we are again going to be scraping the dregs from the bottom of the barrel judging by the latest models but of course things could be a whole lot worse..couldn't they?

There hasn't been anything on offer since December 1st , not even a sniff , close off December and hope months 2 and 3 are filled with something , though aren't they the months the PV is to get going

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Maybe there's something wrong with me but I can't stop thinking about August, when a southerly seemed nailed on only for the pattern to shift west at T96 resulting in an easterly ... just can't let go of this one yet, do I need help guys???!

Going by the past few weeks, I wouldn't be surprised MWB.. 

Edited December 11, 2016 by karlos1983

[A.J]

12 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Hats off to you for being so brutally honest. But it's only 10 days in to Winter and a lot can change, even in the next 10 days.

good post and totally agree BB.....admittedly the current model output suite is not exactly crying out cold and snowy weather for the UK but let's face facts, the model outputs are reliant on the data entered, data which is collected from the here and now which is then projected forwards in time with an ever decreasing percentage of probability as a forecast. Simple mathematics dictates that the more elements added to the calculations, then the larger the margin for error in any projected solution......In other words, I wish people would stop sweating over FI charts that are mathematically unlikely to verify, stop righting the first half of winter off (unless of course they can genuinely predict the future, in which case I would like the lottery numbers for the next 3 months as I'm greedy and really the need the cash) and just enjoy the highs and lows of what is a normally very informative and interesting thread.....Weather is our passion folks, that's why we're here (most of us) but some of the the OTT 'down in the dumps' posts we see from from time to time border on OCD (and that is not a dig or criticism at anyone who genuinely suffers from OCD or OCD related issues  )

[JOPRO]

Well looks like sunspot numbers are tanking again, are we any closer to understanding the effect (if any?)  they have on global weather and also do any models factor this in?

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Well looks like sunspot numbers are tanking again, are we any closer to understanding the effect (if any?)  they have on global weather and also do any models factor this in?

Indeed. First spotless day was yesterday after over 2 weeks of activity. Will be interesting to see how long this spotless run will go on for, much of November was spotless on the Layman's count.

[Mucka]

5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Are they that bad Mucka? I say we have a table and A LOT of options on it! Get next week out the way, hopefully things will seem I little more positive 

 

They are if you  are looking for cold and snow Karlos.

The options are generally between average and a little above average. There is no cold signal at all on that set I'm sorry to say. (a few percent going for something that resembles cold isn't a cold signal, it's just random variance. Sure in another week they may be different because they are showing another weeks weather.

Of course they could be wrong but I can only comment on what they show I'm afraid.

GFS were a little better, a few more colder runs and naturally a lower mean but they weren't great either.

Not surprised GFS 00z didn't dare show itself on meteociel,

Well at least it would be settled with a chance  of frost.

Gives some ironic amplification boxing day.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2016 by Mucka

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning gang, 

I've said it before and will say it again statistically December is the warmest of the winter months and in the last 50 years say,  warm December's far out weigh cold ones this is not unusual to see this kind of weather around now.. 

I mean there is only one winter I can remember being a cold December and that's 2010.

We have to thank the dry weather we have been experiencing given that some people in Cumbria etc still are yet to move back into their homes after the last bout of flooding last year.. 

I wasn't expecting anything cold in December in fact I went for warm mild and wet. 

Currently we need to wait for the new year I think to start seeing where things will go re getting cold.  

Although,  put the HP in the right place and you get cold and frosty conditions just like we have already experienced. 

We all need to sing happy songs round the camp fire and drink mulled wine and wait for the cold.  And if it don't turn up this winter then we will still all be drunk as farts! Happy days! 

 

[Johnp]

Still plenty of cold options on the table for Christmas.

I'm feeling strangely optimistic.

[knocker]

Today

A much better day than yesterday for England and Wales where it will cloudy with sunny interval in many places and dry. N. Ireland and Scotland much breezier and the chance of showers but these much more likely in the west and north west. Temps down on yesterday but still relatively mild, With the ridge of high pressure moving in there could be a widespread frost to night with extensive fog in the morning before sporadic rain comes in from the west later in the day.

The GFS this morning. It' gets rather boring but just to reiterate with the long wave pattern broadly speaking unchanged it's a case once again of looking at a little detail regarding the interaction of the cold/warm air trough/HP for the next ten days.

The upper trough and associated surface fronts reach the west of the UK by Wednesday before deconstructing but this is but a brief interlude as the process quickly repeats itself and by Friday at 06z the surface fronts are lying across western Britain.

This particular deconstruct does have some interest, It creates the usual cut off upper low around Iberia/NW Africa and it also ejects some energy in the form of a shallow low from the tongue of the trough to the south east (it played at this yesterday) whilst at the same time the product of another deconstruct in mid Atlantic is tracking south east. Quite complicated and best illustrated thus. The energy release from the trough to the south east would appear to be facilitated by the very strong NE jet running around the HP and returning from the SE.

And thus by T240 we have a neat self-contained upper low over the UK with an open channel to the low pressure area to the south west. But more to the point the very strong high pressure area to the NE has been pushed south to be orientated to the south east of the UK

So what do all these little intricacies mean weather wise? In a nutshell some showery stuff during the week and the beginning of next weekend as the fronts decay before the HP quickly returns from the south west, consolidates and slips east/south east leaving the UK dry and under the influence of high pressure. Temps, after starting above average will become much cooler with extensive night frosts under a slack wind regime.

Edited December 11, 2016 by knocker

[Dennis]

Wave2 is working at the moment

[Man With Beard]

Op runs all in fair agreement over trough disruption and then a renewed spell of high pressure, but this time with milder air much further north and continental air affecting the UK on the back of slight south-easterly.

Potential for surface cold to develop once again.

Ensemble output a different story. Big disagreement from just T144. 

As ever with trough disruption, nothing to be taken for granted until very short time frames.

[Captain Shortwave]

The operationals now starting to see the picture displayed by the ensemble suites over the past few days with high pressure taking an increasingly firm grip over the UK and indeed most of Europe.

      

 

GFS

      

 

Very similar broad ideas. this coming week we will see fronts trying to push from west to east with varying levels of success before finally a renewed push of heights from the Azores backs the high further west. The models do suggest a chance of a continental feed which will allow temperatures to fall away with night time frosts becoming more likely.

Longer term

      

More of the same looks likely, but perhaps some hope for some wiggle room as the low anomalies to our north west do drop out which could allow heights to drift west perhaps or we could see a better orientation of the high near the UK to advect cold towards us. Or it could just be the signal phasing out in the later timeframes.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

It must be noted that 09/10 winter did also have heights surging up from the azores.

The front loaded lrf in my opinion is so close it would be unfair to ridicule.

And from the charts today there's plenty of scope for the end of December but most likely January.

With solar activity now very low and the hope that there could be a dramatic down tick in West qbo and quick flip to east qbo which is long over due.

I really believe these charts don't look as horrific as they have the last few days.

And frosty Christmas I bank that.

no bbq blowtorch wet windy weather,

and certainly not a Christmas wrecker this year so not such a bad start to winter.

Jan negative ao and nao fingers crossed.

[knocker]

Looking at GFS det run and the GEFS anomalies thus morning indicates (to me anyway) a drift towards the ecm and less, or none at all, blocking. However there still so much uncertainty about the evolution best just put in the pending file.

Edited December 11, 2016 by knocker

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Looking at GFS det run and the GEFS anomalies thus morning indicates (to me anyway) a drift towards the ecm and less, or none at all, blocking. However there still so much uncertainty about the evolution best just put on the pending file.

A baffling comment, unless I have read it wrong?

[knocker]

The ecm at T192 has an 180kt jet running around the north of the HP which is then pushed south east as the jets swings around it albeit slackening somewhat. The end result very high pressure to the south east and some quite outlandish 850mb temp anomalies.

[IDO]

The GFS 0z op looks an outlier within the ens, maybe to do with the UK cold pool: 

At this range that sort of feature is nigh impossible to model. Looking at the temp and T850's graphs the op has little support:

Again the mean T850 stays above the historical all 16 days. Five or so mild days upcoming, then a return to average, but with cold pools in the flow potential for some areas to get raw days and cold nights (as the op depicts for the SE region on this run).

As for the long wave pattern up to Dec 27 now, no change. The same old story, the upstream ridge around the N Pacific is eased east and collapses flattening the pattern so any sympathetic Atlantic ridge sinks. This allows the PV to become more organised for a week or so, only temporary I expect as it looks like taking a tour back to Siberia in the outer reaches of FI. This will allow a ridge to follow slowly from the Azores through Europe to Russia within that flow. In other words a continuation of the endless pattern.

As Knocker says some run by the ECM (don't believe it) with uppers +16c over average: 

Not seen charts like that for a while!

D10 GEM is awful: 

Edited December 11, 2016 by IDO

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Johnp said:

A baffling comment, unless I have read it wrong?

You haven't read it wrong. With the HP to the east and not intruding north it only has to slip a little further east and the westerlies are back in the game as perhaps illustrated with the 10-15 anomaly. Equally the HP could retain it's grip and with most of the UK remaining under it's umbrella. I certainly would not like to call this at this stage as it's all very knife edgy. I hope that clarifies my comment a little but I wouldn't worry too much about that far down the line at the moment given the aforementioned uncertainty

Edited December 11, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The end result very high pressure to the south east and some quite outlandish 850mb temp anomalies.

Get that red crayon out knocker I must say, a front loaded winter is not looking good..luckily, a sense of humor helps in a mild British winter.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Get that red crayon out knocker I must say, a front loaded winter is not looking good.

There you go frosty and I can report that Sidney has fainted.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

There you go frosty and I can report that Sidney has fainted.

Cheers knocks, I really missed those since last dec