Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[fergieweather]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

I am just waiting for the there is better heights towards greenland in the run there i done it.

Hmmm. It's an interesting quandary, given how EC Monthly today goes ultimately (after a pathway effectively as presently signalled in op models) towards a solution mirroring seasonal output pattern in EC Seasonal & GloSea (by late Dec--early Jan, indicative of a broadly NW-SE axis to storm track west of UK, with +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies building across Scandinavia into same lead time, as +ve temp anomalies suddenly then fade to become indistinct... all indicative of mean SE-E flow between high to NE/E and low to SW/S). Stamps of course show wide spread. However, at least some parallel to the last crop of seasonal suites (albeit EC Seasonal updates again this week).

[karlos1983]

Hmmm so heights to our NE is more than just a chance then!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Wrt to EC46 (weeklies), not completely out, but this is week 3 as a teaser ... H500 +anomalies to the NE this time

 The potential for sliders is evident on the 12z run too nick. However, as I posted earlier, will there be any sub zero uppers on the continent ? Otherwise sliders are just going to bring cold rain! 

What  I will say is that this chart is much closer to how I believe glosea saw mid December onwards -  high anomoly needing to sink a bit closer to us and twist towards greeny a bit. 

Edited December 5, 2016 by bluearmy

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Hmmm so heights to our NE is more than just a chance then!

Well, the issue we just discussed at work is how evidently *something* is driving the similar pattern to resolve between those models, but we watch and see...

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

 The potential for sliders is evident on the 12z run too nick. However, as I posted earlier, will there be any sub zero uppers on the continent ? Otherwise sliders are just going to bring cold rain! 

What  I will say is that this chart is much closer to how I believe glosea saw mid December high anomoly needing to sink a bit closer to us and twist towards greeny a bit. 

Mid month gone, but week 3 (Xmas) still a possibility. I'll take that for sure - and now we have both EC and GLOSEA on same song sheet you have to be slightly positive - lets have another go then!! 

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hmmm so heights to our NE is more than just a chance then!

Until the PV goes for a wander or is nuked into Christmas past then Greenland is off limits. Height rises NE can happen when the PV backs west and you get scenarios similar to Jan 2013

Little pocket of heights was all that was needed. PV also shown there too just a difference between then and now is that the jet is taking a more northerly route thus scuppering this chance.

Edited December 5, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[knocker]

 

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 The potential for sliders is evident on the 12z run too nick. However, as I posted earlier, will there be any sub zero uppers on the continent ? Otherwise sliders are just going to bring cold rain! 

What  I will say is that this chart is much closer to how I believe glosea saw mid December high anomoly needing to sink a bit closer to us and twist towards greeny a bit. 

To my eyes blue that chart is not a million miles away from the EPS 10--15 mean and I didn't find much significant about that.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Until the PV goes for a wander or is nuked into Christmas past then Greenland is off limits. Height rises NE can happen when the PV backs west and you get scenarios similar to Jan 2013

Little pocket of heights was all that was needed. PV also shown there too just a difference between then and now is that the jet is taking a more northerly route thus scuppering this chance.

I'm willing to go through the grinder for a proper scandi high, they almost always deliver! *if it's to go that way*

[legritter]

Any body for an albatross ,northern profile looking interesting ,this is my first attempt at chart posting well here goes ,enjoying tonights chatter .cheers 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, legritter said:

Any body for an albatross ,northern profile looking interesting ,this is my first attempt at chart posting well here goes ,enjoying tonights chatter .cheers 

It's the first time an Op has looked interesting for a while too. 

Edited December 5, 2016 by Ali1977

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 The potential for sliders is evident on the 12z run too nick. However, as I posted earlier, will there be any sub zero uppers on the continent ? Otherwise sliders are just going to bring cold rain! 

What  I will say is that this chart is much closer to how I believe glosea saw mid December onwards -  high anomoly needing to sink a bit closer to us and twist towards greeny a bit. 

That's the problem, too much zonality ploughing deep into NE Europe in next week to two weeks and then there maybe little deep cold to tap into when the synoptics could become favourable aka week 3 from the EPS. Anyway, there's still a weak flame left in the EPS long range to warm the optimism for the rest of the month.

[Snowman.]

Well if we can't get cut off heights it could be quite dry especially further south-east you go.

[Snowman.]

Hold up 18z has the russian high back.

 

If we can't get a cold spell lets at least get some vortex disruption.

 

Edited December 5, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[bluearmy]

One member on both the 06 and 12 GEFS managed to get that cold blob to hit the uk !  Doesn't look like there is a route available on this run though. 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

To my eyes blue that chart is not a million miles away from the EPS 10--15 mean and I didn't find much significant about that.

you don't need much trough disruption to generate proper wintry conditions over the uk with the jet running nw/se but the issue would be continental temps and upper air being sub  zero.  To me (and many others) the issue is how you generate low anomolys to our south. Originally it seemed the Russian ones might back sw but that's looked unlikely since mid last week so the invigorated Atlantic could be the answer If the jet can be encouraged to split a fair flow se. 

[nick sussex]

Dear me what a dreadful GFS 18hrs run. As an old timer in here I've seen some horror shows but the last few days are becoming quite trying.

Flat upstream pattern and a PV stuck to the north. We really need to see a big change upstream.

[Nick F]

14 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Do my eyes deceive me or is air source/ origin over the UK generally Atlantic / bay of biscay originated on that chart? The upper air pattern would also be slightly off for cold/snow.

I don't think you can really infer any likely temperature range for the UK from the chart as it is 500mb height anomalies over a week, though it does suggest NW to SE axis to movement of troughing and weather systems, perhaps, rather than SW to NE as is case next few weeks.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Dear me what a dreadful GFS 18hrs run. As an old timer in here I've seen some horror shows but the last few days are becoming quite trying.

Flat upstream pattern and a PV stuck to the north. We really need to see a big change upstream.

Even flattens the pacific ridge.

Pretty grim post 240 op run.

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Hold up 18z has the russian high back.

 

If we can't get a cold spell lets at least get some vortex disruption.

 

Nice pacific ridge as well. Double trouble for said vortex

 but ends crxp surprise surprise  

Edited December 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Dear me what a dreadful GFS 18hrs run. As an old timer in here I've seen some horror shows but the last few days are becoming quite trying.

Flat upstream pattern and a PV stuck to the north. We really need to see a big change upstream.

It's unbelievable isn't it, we can't even get a polar maritime shot within the next 384 hours!..something has to change soon surely.

[booferking]

The 18z was'nt that bad least we have some amplification that we can work on if we can get the trend to amplify more each run then maybe we might get there between day 8-10.

[karlos1983]

So NW don't see a cold spell of interest by the looks of the update to December 

The plot err.... thinens 

Edited December 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Nouska]

29 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Wrt to EC46 (weeklies), not completely out, but this is week 3 as a teaser ... H500 +anomalies to the NE this time

A very different picture on the ppn and 850 temp charts to previous runs. Unfortunately the axis seems to go way south and only brush the coasts - nothing penetrating far enough in for what people are looking for.

It is remarkable how two sites can present the precipitation anomaly for the 336 to 504 timeframe so differently.

   

 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

 

Front loaded cold start to winter pfffft

It's certainly not going to feel like a front loaded winter once the mild spell arrives with a vengeance by wednesday which is then expected to last for a further 7-10 days or thereabouts minus a cooler blip at the weekend.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you don't need much trough disruption to generate proper wintry conditions over the uk with the jet running nw/se but the issue would be continental temps and upper air being sub  zero.  To me (and many others) the issue is how you generate low anomolys to our south. Originally it seemed the Russian ones might back sw but that's looked unlikely since mid last week so the invigorated Atlantic could be the answer If the jet can be encouraged to split a fair flow se. 

Yes that's true but I suspect the main arm of the jet would be more SW/NE with the southern arm too far south. And any trough disruption would seem to be getting less significant so, as you say, where is the low pressure to the SE going to come from. Everyone is whistling in the wind a bit here I feel.