Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Recommended Posts

Just a comment on Summer Suns post at the end of the last thread showing several storms. What I find fascinating is the track those lows are taking a southerly route. 

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

De bilt I know - but notice the drop now with some much colder , and if you look at the very end they all look like dropping. This is day 10 too, lets hope the extended show further fall of temps.

IMG_3709.PNG

Around 10 showing ice days from day 8, maybe these de bilt ENS are tapping into the cold further East.

Edit - extended don't improve really, still a few colder runs but around average from day 8 onwards.

 

IMG_3710.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Just a comment on Summer Suns post at the end of the last thread showing several storms. What I find fascinating is the track those lows are taking a southerly route. 

Yes good point frosty, and going by the tweet Summer has just copied in, that also suggests lows taking a southerly track, so the heights if they establish shouldn't sink!!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder why GFS can pretty much nail the milder weather 10 days out but colder weather it can't

The below charts are for this Friday

29th

Cya3yk2XcAAvIeg.jpg

Today

npsh500.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We really are reliant on some Atlantic amplification- the ecm offers a glimmer at 144 but we see everything flattening out again thereafter as the jet fires up.Less said about gfs the better....

Edit And the GEFS are poor...

 

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ext EPS means are somewhat tantalizing for those of a particular persuasion. A continuation of positive anomalies to the NE with some ridging over Scandinavia with a weak trough to the NW of the UK Temps around average. Not a great deal to be sensibly concluded from that I feel.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the ens I think it's fair to say the GFS has 'gone off on one' with its storms the mean pressure remains high

prmslLondon.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We really are reliant on some Atlantic amplification- the ecm offers a glimmer at 144 but we see everything flattening out again thereafter as the jet fires up.Less said about gfs the better....

 

Definitely heading in the right direction, better than yesterday which I didn't think was bad here and there but we have already had more frosts this season than the whole of last winter with more frost and freezing fog set to return after the mild spell.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS means are somewhat tantalizing for those of a particular persuasion. A continuation of positive anomalies to the NE with some ridging over Scandinavia with a weak trough to the NW of the UK Temps around average. Not a great deal to be sensibly concluded from that I feel.

I wonder how the 46 will take that on ? Looks to have lost some of the continuity it built over the weekend

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bluearmy said:

I wonder how the 46 will take that on ? Looks to have lost some of the continuity it built over the weekend

 

 

Yes I thought that as well. The 46 is certainly not without interest tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still a bit of a mish-mash when it comes to timing of tropical hence Atlantic-Europe pattern shifts. Even when looking at ensemble clusters there's some washing out of height rises to N and NE in the 8-12 day range by the slower or not interested runs. So it's a bit of a stealthy signal of which the true probability is difficult to gauge.

Beyond day 12 GEFS and GFS are affected by low AAM bias increasing westerly tendency in Atlantic, yet still some ens. runs maintain blocking which is a good sign. ECM ens. seem less prone to such AAM bias.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LP over Scandi at t156 instead of sinking HP.  This is looking interesting.  I think there's se surprises yet to come.  Earth facing coronal hole likely come the weekend, that should perturb the jetstream

 

BFTP

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Step towards the ECM?

image.jpeg

I think it is.

image.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It really shouldn't surprise anyone if a gfs op picks a stellar run at some point today 

with a fair proportion of the ens showing such solutions recently, it would be odd if it didn't 

 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, That ECM said:

I think it is.

image.jpeg

Then again, one could quite legitimately argue that all of the main models are moving toward the weather?:D

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfs not really on the same page as the euros with the polar profile at day 6 so doubtful it will amplify enough without that

note the tongue of low heights protruding into the n Atlantic from e Canada (trough extension from vortex) is consistent with extended eps. It should drive a downstream upper ridge way to our nw later week 2.

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM for winter

December

Temperature - Slightly above normal - precipitation well below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m1.png

January

Temperature - No strong signal perhaps marginally above average in parts of Scotland, NI and ROI - precipitation below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m2.png

February

Temperature - Marginally above average - precipitation above average for most

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m3.png

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

control going same way as the Para?  

gensnh-0-1-252.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM for winter

December

Temperature - Slightly above normal - precipitation well below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m1.png

January

Temperature - No strong signal perhaps marginally above average in parts of Scotland, NI and ROI - precipitation below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m2.png

February

Temperature - Marginally above average - precipitation above average for most

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m3.png

 

Do you have these particular charts from a month ago? I'm just interested to know if there's been much change. Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM for winter

December

Temperature - Slightly above normal - precipitation well below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m1.png

January

Temperature - No strong signal perhaps marginally above average in parts of Scotland, NI and ROI - precipitation below average

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m2.png

February

Temperature - Marginally above average - precipitation above average for most

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161201_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20161201_m3.png

 

Chances of the next EPS 46 contradicting this? ;-)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×