Spaceweather Implications for Earth Weather Forecasts

[Devonshire]

After some musings in the Model thread about up-ticks in solar activity and the possible (dire!) effects on an upcoming potential cold spell I wondered if this topic might be worthy of it's own thread (I wasn't sure if I was being ticked off for posting inappropriately in the Model thread, but then couldn't find an appropriate thread!). I will repost a link to a video that discusses the effects of geomagnetic storms on tropical storm development on Earth:

The question is posed: what is the point of giving credence to long-range (Earth) weather forecasts if sudden bursts of solar activity can lead to big changes in weather patterns, seemingly 'out of the blue'. (Allied to this are issues of solar cycles and cloud cover - but I guess this is getting into climate - and I am really interested in weather here). Perhaps more of a practical question is: how can forecasting models (Earth weather) - and forecasters - account for and incorporate space weather into short, medium and long-term forecasts?

Any thoughts?

ps - don't expect me to respond to technical questions on this thread - I am just an interested layman!

[jonboy]

Some compelling links highlighted there but unless we are able to predict flairs then it has little impact on long range forecasting.

However much is talked about sunspots and the fact that they are an indicator of solar activity but we do not have long records that are accurate, other then perhaps that produced by Geoff Sharp on the laymans sunspot count as he has tried to copy the original methods.

The sun affects our planet in many ways. The strength of the heliosphere protects the planet from cosmic rays this has seen a sharp decline over the last year which has seen a significant uptick in cosmic rays and if research presently ongoing may well prove the link to increased cloud formation and less well linked volcanic and earthquake activity.

Also extreme ultraviolet and far ultraviolet radiation emissions are the main source of energy and ionisation in the upper atmosphere again we have seen a sharp change over the last 12 months. In recent cycles these changes have been gradual whereas in the present solar cycle we have seen a sharp change not only in sunspot numbers but also these emissions and I would content that it is the speed of change rather than the change itself that we need to take account of. I am certain climate models at this time are incapable of taking these factors into account and will struggle in any long term forecasting until the science is better understood. But I am convinced this is why this winter will be significantly colder than we have seen for decades and will be the trend setter for perhaps the next 40 years

[Devonshire]

Thanks for some interesting info jonboy. Re:

35 minutes ago, jonboy said:

 unless we are able to predict flairs then it has little impact on long range forecasting.

I think this gets to the issue - if planetary alignments, and more specifically the circuits (magnetic and otherwise), do indeed influence the likelihood of flares, then I wonder how long it will be until this can be incorporated in short and medium-term forecasts in a meaningful/useful way. I would think the precise orientation to Earth and timing would be the tricky part in any prediction though (as opposed to a general increased likelihood of flaring)

 

[Gael_Force]

From more recent reading, it is not the sun spots per se but what the sun spots are a proxy for. The major issue has been a disconnect between science areas but this too is being addressed and I'm sure there will be more of an effort to include in future modelling.

[Devonshire]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

The major issue has been a disconnect between science areas but this too is being addressed

That sounds interesting GF - can you say any more?!

[virtualsphere]

A couple of links to some excellent posts by Roger J Smith from the Seasonal Forecast thread a while back which could be relevant to this discussion:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3348870
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3422950

Also worth reading the NW winter forecast if you haven't already, with some discussion of solar flux and the impact on UK winter:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess=

The research would seem to indicate that sunspot peaks aren't necessarily a bad thing for colder UK winters, e.g. 1947 - but the descending phase of the cycle seems to have more of a link to a +NAO and therefore a reduced chance of cold for us.  I'm sure I've read previously (but can't find the link at present) that increases in solar activity can actually affect the synoptic setup in different ways depending on other background factors such as ENSO / QBO etc., and so while an uptick in solar activity now might change the outlook towards a colder set-up, the same uptick might actually increase the potential for a colder outbreak if other teleconnections are in a different phase.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Predicting flares.....I'm hoping there'll be two big ones this month approaching mid month and around Christmas time.  There are long term cycles for climate and earth facing coronal holes that have neartime weather effect.  As alluded to, timing of when they occur and why and which part of a Earth gets the main hit and effect.

 

BFTP

[Devonshire]

I just saw a report of a paper suggesting that solar flares come in patterns that make them predictable to some extent:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.03504v1.pdf

Its too technical for me, but in the right hands it might be interesting as input to experimental/cutting edge models having some sort of short-term utility (esp regarding impact on terrestrial/satellite electrical systems - but also storm intensity/tacks?

A similar patterning was reported last year - this link explains it with a video for the hard-of-thinking like me!:

http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/january-30-2015/