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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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3 minutes ago, markyo said:

It better not be anything like Dec 2015!! Hope Sidney is disappointed. One of the worst months i can remember

I'm hoping this reverse psychology works but it looks like a much milder spell is nailed..but for how long will it last?:D 

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Certainly the ENS are hinting at something for us coldies after mid month

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A drop in the 850's around mid-month still favored not quite as low as this morning

gefsens850London0.png

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9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Certainly the ENS are hinting at something for us coldies after mid month

Agreed, the GEFS 12z mean does trend colder.

21_384_2mtmpmax.png

21_384_500mb.png

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some potentially snowy GEFS 12z perturbations in the extended range, just beyond mid Dec.

5_384_850tmp.png

8_384_850tmp.png

12_384_850tmp.png

16_384_850tmp.png

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The ECM  varies again reflecting the background uncertainty - more plausible than the previous run imo

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ECM about as exciting as watching paint dry tonight

were still + 8 days on any interest so pretty poor -

25% of GFS 00z ENS have the 60N zonal mean above average post 192- the highest figure season to date-

Almost standard winter fair now with no HLB & no cold is site..

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Quite a change next week on the way with much milder Tm air flooding across the uk on the Ecm 12z with stronger swly winds for a time and some rain but with intervals of fine very pleasant weather too although it then cools down towards T+240 but a mild spell is locked and loaded. The good news for coldies is the Gefs 12z mean trends colder around mid month.

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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That powerful low/chunk of pv over Newfoundland doesn't make much progress east days 7 to 10 on the ecm. That's my positive take on that particular run :)

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:help: Wednesday-Friday is a daffodil reminder and the next Low developing across the water looks fierce on the ECM for day 8. No height build just yet but sure it will come.

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34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

some potentially snowy GEFS 12z perturbations in the extended range, just beyond mid Dec.

5_384_850tmp.png

8_384_850tmp.png

12_384_850tmp.png

16_384_850tmp.png

Oi oi , that's better frosty. It is a bit like pulling hens teeth at the moment (I remember Mr Murr had it as his profile one year along with the donkey with the carrot lol)but we might get there as these charts show we have a chance of winning the uk snow lottery.

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Similar to last Dec Frosty, remember similar setup being modeled for around same time in early Dec, zonality relaxed a little bit, but not enough

archives-2015-12-13-0-0.png

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6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oi oi , that's better frosty. It is a bit like pulling hens teeth at the moment (I remember Mr Murr had it as his profile one year along with the donkey with the carrot lol)but we might get there as these charts show we have a chance of winning the uk snow lottery.

Yes I'm still a coldie, using a bit of reverse psychology too but I agree, there is a chance when we have Gefs 12z perturbation charts like those I posted and most crucially, the Gefs mean does trend colder during the mid month period so something might be afoot.:D

Edited by Frosty.

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C'mon EC ENS , something to cheer about please!! 

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The higher height tendency toward Iceland/Scandinavia  in the face of the Atlantic troughs has the look of a low-magnitude stratospheric-forced high latitude ridge, which I believe is what we saw in Jan 2013 to produce 'something from nothing'?

Worth keeping an eye on as a means to score a bonus cold shot ahead of whatever we may achieve in the second half of the month - but not (hopefully yet...) worth betting on.

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well going by the charts in front of us rain and mild for the first 1/6 of winter, much the same as last year up here in Scotland! hopefully things will change :-)

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I wish I was a mild weather fan in winter. Life would be so much simpler :wallbash: my day of being super positive ends with that. I'm off to the pub!

IMG_3855.PNG

Edited by karlos1983

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Pretty underwhelming runs for cold this evening pretty much as expected i guess.Some interest after day 10 in the gefs stamps when the spreads start to show up on both the Pacific and Atlantic side wrt the amplitude of the NH pattern.

gensnh-22-1-240.png

by the end of the run those +ve heights to the ne showing up again and around 7/8 of the 20 members at day 14 show some promise with heights to our north including 3 Greenland highs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

the ens graph showing a cool down from around  13th so at least a prolonged mild spell doesn't look likely currently.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.

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34 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

:help: Wednesday-Friday is a daffodil reminder and the next Low developing across the water looks fierce on the ECM for day 8. No height build just yet but sure it will come.

 

35 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

:help: Wednesday-Friday is a daffodil reminder and the next Low developing across the water looks fierce on the ECM for day 8. No height build just yet but sure it will come.

Yes agree with day 8 chart,and IF high pressure does set  up to our far north this  could stear something vulgar in our direction if jet is favourable ,as I said earlier Barbara could easily emerge as our second named storm  hopefully Barbara can head off to France , well not the best of ecm runs but could be better tomorrow ,would have thought that gfs runs now could get interesting any one for dart board lows cheers gang ,:cold:

 

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so were entering a more unsettled spell "average dec type weather" with little in the way of hlb in the reliable timeframes ete.anomaly charts for 10 days plus are fine but to avoid stress id stick to charts and nhp which are if possible reliable.

if nothing else wel save on the heating bills on the run up to xmas!!!:hi:

Edited by swfc

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wave_2_ecm.png

This, helpfully posted in the stratosphere thread by Frank_WX, is what could be driving the ridge building Iceland-Greenland that I discussed earlier.

Models are known to really struggle to capture regional downwelling of mid-stratosphere anomalies, with a known erroneous bias toward blocking it at the tropopause (base of stratosphere). GFS can be particularly bad at that, hence the Jan 2013 debacle.

Not saying it'll play out that way this time, but my interest in the potential is increasing.

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